Soccer prediction 27/10/2012

Lille - Valenciennes 1.65 - 7.00

My pick will be the outsider. Lille are the better side? Of course they are, when they are in form, that is. At the moment Valenciennes look the stronger side and they are four points ahead of Lille in the league table.
The away side will also this week miss the injured duo Mater and Nery. Time for Pujol to play some part for Valenciennes. The striker has been injured this season. Another striker, Le Tallec should be OK to play.
Lille played against Bayern Munich earlier this week and they suffered their third straight Champions League defeat. So far it is not working for Lille this season, pure lucky drawing at Bordeaux last week. Basa, Mavuba and Gueye are major injury doubts. Form beats class, hopefully.

Arsenal - Q P R 1.40 - 9.50

A Ferdinand and Onuoha came on as late substitutes for QPR last week and defensively QPR are beginning to look sound again. What they need right now is a win, any kind of win, to kick start their stumbling season. If I compare the QPR squad to the likes of Wigan, Reading, Southampton, Norwich and so on, no way they ought to be behind these sides in the league table. QPR need a lucky break, but will it happen tomorrow?
Quite amazing how the Arsenal season so quickly turned sour. I have seen them playing two games in four days, against Norwich and Schalke, and they have not really produced a single scoring chance. Half chances, yes, but no open ones. Sagna could be back for this match, maybe also Oxlade-Chamberlain, J Wilshere on the bench, but it is too early for Walcott and Diaby. As Arsenal so clearly have lost all their confidence I can see QPR causing an upset in this London derby. Something on the away win.

Aston Villa - Norwich 1.95 - 4.30

Trying to write something about this fixture the name of Paul Lambert constantly pops up in my mind. It was Lambert who brought Norwich to the Premiership after some barren years and it was Lambert who coached Norwich last season. Their come back season was a success, but it did not stop Lambert from leaving Norwich for Aston Villa. Lambert’s Villa have struggled so far, one win and only six goals scored.
Not that Norwich have done any better, but their league win arrived last week and it was their best performance of the season, 1-0 against Arsenal. Grant Holt has woken up from his early season slumber and there is always hope when Holt is on fire. R Snodgrass could be back for the home side.
N Baker, the Villa centre half is struggling with an injury and he will be assessed tonight. Lowton is ready to fill in for Baker. C Clark is also an injury doubt. Lambert knows everything there is to know about Holt and his Norwich colleagues and at the end of day I expect Villa to win this fixture, 1-0 or 2-0 home win.

Chelsea - Manchester Utd 2.47 - 3.25

It was tough for Chelsea in Ukraine. The speedy Shaktar players came in wave after wave and Chelsea really should have lost with more than the one goal (1-2). J Terry and F Lampard will miss this game, but that is OK. Chelsea will be able to field the same starting eleven that impressed hugely against Tottenham a week ago. Lampard is no good in a game like this one.
R Ferdinand and Evra will most likely return to the United defence. Kagawa will miss the match, but he can be replaced, as both Valencia and A Young are available again. So a better looking United defence for this match than against Braga, but my call in this fixture will be the home win.

Everton - Liverpool 2.76 - 2.76

In my world I would have Everton as 2.30 favourites in the derby. OK, it is not perfect for Everton to be missing both Fellaini and Pienaar, but they play better, more effective football than Liverpool, at least this far. Yes, they have six more points than Liverpool. Reports are now saying there is a chance that Fellaini will recover for this match and the same goes for D Gibson.
If you put the Liverpool 5-2 win against Norwich aside you have to say that they are close to harmless. Their fixture list has not exactly been the toughest one, but all they mustered in their two recent home games vs. Stoke and Reading was the one goal.
Liverpool fielded a surprisingly strong squad against Anzhi last night only changing their line up on three positions. Advantage Everton on Sunday? Derby game, anything may happen red cards and the rest, but my call will be the home win.

Manchester City - Swansea 1.25 - 15.00

I guess the City coach Mancini is thinking to himself: thank God for the Premiership. He knows how to play City in this league, but obviously he has not the necessary know how for the European circuit. This I can state now after a string of lacklustre City displays in Europe.
The question must be asked. Will the owners accept the Mancini shortcomings? J Milner will be suspended for this game and it is probably too early for D Silva.
Swansea will play their customary passing game and it may take a while for City to get the upper hand in this match. There is talk about mutiny in the Man City dressing room and I would never touch this 1.25 on the home win.

Newcastle - W B A 2.01 - 4.00

Decent odds on the home win, or is it just my old head talking? If nothing else it was easy to see that Newcastle were better than Sunderland in the northern derby and no way that they would have dropped any points if Tiote has stayed on the pitch. Newcastle look strong and their defensive worries are over for the moment. No Tiote on Sunday.
Maybe the WBA coach has some regrets after their loss against Man City. He should have played with Lukaku earlier in the game and the loss would probably had been avoided. I have nothing negative to say about this WBA side. It is just that I think that Newcastle are a better footballing side. Home winner.

Reading - Fulham 2.93 - 2.60

Time for the first Reading three pointer? Why not! You can always reason with Fulham on their travels and rest assured that the Reading players will be extremely fired up for this game. In their last home fixture they dominated against Newcastle, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Next came a 2-2 draw at Swansea followed up by their 0-1 loss against Liverpool at Anfield. There is every reason to believe that Reading will offer a strong home display tomorrow. Noel Hunt will be ready again for the home side.
Duff will be back in contention for Fulham, maybe also B Ruiz. Fulham are unbeaten in their last four games, including two away fixtures, at Wigan (2-1) and Southampton (2-2).
They score on a regular basis these days and I will absolutely include the over alternative in this fixture. Home win and over game will be my two calls.

Southampton - Tottenham 4.35 - 1.90

Not too much to say about Southampton. If they do not strengthen their defensive line they will go on losing football games, it is as simple as that. Then they need R Lambert playing from the start. He is their main danger man, but he was kept on the bench during the first hour of their game against West Ham.
Finding out that Tottenham were missing both G Bale and Dembele gave at least this writer only one option, Chelsea had to be backed. Spurs without Bale are not the same, but in this game against Chelsea their defence, and especially Gallas was a big disappointment. G Bale will be back for this match and quite possible that both Adebayor and Dembele will also return. Away win and over game.

Stoke - Sunderland 2.10 - 4.37

Not the kind of football game that I would choose to watch. An old fashioned game of English football at the Britannia Stadium and the winners will be the side that are most efficient at using the different dead ball situations.
Sounds like Stoke will grab the three points. G Whelan will be back in contention for Stoke.
Stoke are unbeaten at their stadium, while Sunderland have drawn three of their four away fixtures. I was not impressed by the Sunderland display in the derby. Where was the creativity? Sunderland play like that, get the ball into the penalty area as soon as possible and hope for the best, a bit like Stoke actually. L Cattermole will play/fight again for Sunderland. I prefer the home win.

Wigan - West Ham 2.37 - 3.33

Quoting a great Bob Dylan song: “It is not dark yet, but it is getting there.” I am thinking about Wigan and the fact they are winless in their last five games. In fact their only win was early season away to Southampton.
They were certainly not miles away from getting something from their visit to Swansea, but they ended up losing the game 1-2. They will be unchanged for this match, while defender O’Brien will be back bolstering the West Ham defence.
Different world altogether for West Ham with 4-2-2 after eight rounds of league football. Maybe Wigan can draw some comfort from the fact that West Ham so far have produced less effective football on their travels, but still, they won their last away game, if you can call a fixture at the Loftus Road an away game for West Ham. A draw is all that Wigan will manage tomorrow.

Barnsley – Nottingham Forrest 2.92 - 2.54

Away win will be my choice. Short trip for Nottingham. Should be like a derby, but I would not know. Nottingham are one of the better sides in this division, but they have drawn too many games this far. In midweek they visited Blackpool and managed to draw the match 2-2. It was a good result, at least in my opinion.
Nottingham have three very useful strikers, B Sharp, S Cox and D Blackstock and it was Blackstock who scored their equaliser against Blackpool coming on as a late substitute. Defender Ayala is considered a major doubt for this match and Guedioura will complete his suspension this weekend.
Barnsley are forced to play without their leading striker C Davies (7 goals). His partner C Dagnall was replaced after 17 minutes against Crystal Palace, but why, I do not know. Suffice to say that Barnsley will be weakened offensively for this match. Backing Nottingham.

Espanyol - Malaga 3.00 - 2.58

I will back Espanyol also this week. Their 3-2 win against Vallecano last week, first win of the season, was far from convincing. Still Espanyol had their all important win and I expect a better, more relaxed Espanyol performance tomorrow.
Their defender Colotto will be suspended for this match and Javi Lopez, midfielder, will not be fit to play. Stuani came on for Lopez last week scoring the winning goal for Espanyol. We will absolutely see more of Sergio Garcia, but Albin and Mattioni remain on the sidelines.
Malaga won again in Europe, this time against Milan. Their win was totally in order. Joaquin missed a penalty late in the first half. There is no way that Malaga will be at their best in this match. I have seen it so many times before, how new sides playing in the Champions League will suffer in the league. It has not happened yet for Malaga, but surely their rather small squad will be stretched at the moment. Espanyol to win.

Bologna - Inter 3.90 - 2.19

It was close but Bologna should not have too many complaints about their 0-1 loss away to Cagliari. They will probably be unchanged for this match with both Aquafresca and Gimenez sidelined. Diamanti will hopefully, for Bologna, make it possible for Gilardino to find the Inter goal. Inter go on missing Sneijder.
Four wins on the bounce for Inter, while Bologna are going through a very lean period. They had this great win at home to Catania, but before and after they have achieved practically nothing. Likely away win.

Catania -. Juventus 5.40 - 1.74

Potential banana skin number two for Juventus this week. Number one was in Denmark against Nordsjälland (1-1). Juventus dominated against the Danes, but they lacked the necessary sharpness, or they were not creative enough?
Catania are certainly no pushovers down in Sicily. They are 3-1-0 this far at their own place and they fear no team there.
Lichtsteiner, Asamoah and Vucinic will most likely start for Juventus this time. Another draw for Juventus!

Fiorentina - Lazio 2.25 - 3.62

Aquilani and Llama are at last back in training for Fiorentina, but for this match they have to manage without the suspended Pizarro and Roncaglia. Luca Toni will play alongside Jovetic in their front line and Cuadrado and Olivera will play in their midfield together with M Fernandez, Borja Valero and Pasquale. Marchetti, the Lazio first choice keeper, will miss this game.
Fiorentina are 3-1-0 in their home games and they have only conceded one goal in their home fixtures. At the same time Lazio have been surprisingly strong in their away fixtures (3-0-1 so far). A draw and every one will be reasonably happy.

Milan - Genoa 1.57 - 8.00

Must be a great side Milan, as low priced as 1.57 against Genoa. The bookies seem to know what I know. Genoa have to manage without Borriello, Jorquera and Canini, all in action last week. Rossi, Ferronetti and Vargas will be absent again.
New Genoa coach, Delneri, and this will be his first game in charge. He will probably use a 4-4-4-1-1 formation with Bertolacci supporting Immobile upfront.
Abbiati and Boateng could be back for Milan. Milan should win this match, but the odds are unacceptable.

Napoli - Chievo 1.42 - 9.49

For long periods Napoli were absolutely as strong as Juventus last week, but the many offensive options available for Juventus decided the match in favour of the league leaders.
Pelissier was not fit to play for Chievo last week, but for this match he will be back along with Cruzado. Andreolli will start in their defence with both Cesar and Sardo out injured.
Cavani, Pandev, Hamsik and Maggio, among others, did not play, or only played a few minutes when Napoli went down to Dnipro in Europe last night. Home win, I guess.

Pescara - Atalanta 3.01 - 2.62

It is difficult for me. I have given up on Pescara and I never trust them to be on the winning side. I was not surprised that ten man Udinese proved too strong for Pescara last week. No Blasi for Pescara in this match, but Colucci should return. Quintero and Crescenzi risk missing this match.
Crucial win for an injury plagued Atalanta side against Siena. Carmona will be suspended for this game. He was red carded sitting on the bench. As I just said, I never seem to trust Pescara, but I must admit, this match looks winnable for the newcomers. Home win?

Roma - Udinese 1.62 - 6.11

Fantastic offensive football by Roma against Genoa. They just attacked with their entire team down 0-2 and it was a joy to watch their optimistic football. There were never any doubts, just keep on attacking. Totti played a big part in their 4-2 win. Same again? Well Destro has recovered from his injury, but both Totti and Balzaretti are major injury doubts.
Udinese miss Danilo, Basta, Pasquale, Pinzi and Muriel. Too short odds on the home win.

Sampdoria - Cagliari 2.25 - 3.80

Gastaldello, Sampdoria defender, will be back for this match, but his defensive colleague A Costa will serve his suspension this week and their keeper Romero as well. Pozzi and Krsticic will not be available, but hopefully Obiang and/or Poli will return.
Cagliari will once again miss Cossu and Pinilla. A Ekdal was their best player against Bologna and it has been a pleasant surprise to see his rapid improvement lately. 1X game.

Siena - Palermo 2.32 - 3.57

Rodriguez, the midfielder, is new on the Siena injury list, but Ze Eduardo will be available again. Rosina and Campagnolo are injured, but there is still hope that Rosina will recover for this fixture.
Miccoli and Brienza should return for Palermo. In other words we will see Miccoli from the start in this game. Their point reduction has made this fixture more or less a must win game for Siena. Palermo have scored one goal in their four away games and sure enough, you can almost always oppose Palermo in their away fixtures. Siena to win.

Torino - Parma 2.27 - 3.86

Hopefully for Torino, their best asset, the Italian international defender Ogbonna, will be back for this match. He could not play last week at Parma. Lucarelli and Benalouane will be available again for Parma, but Mirante and Galloppa are out of this fixture. Can a game be more difficult to predict than this one? The draw.

EUROPE: Europa League - Group Stage Prediction

Liverpool - Anzhi 2.30 - 3.30

Quite a game to look forward to. Anzhi are topping the Russian league after a most impressive campaign and can Liverpool afford to face Anzhi with their alternative side used this far in Europe? Yes, I think they will. Liverpool will face Everton in a few days time and no way that coach Rodgers will send out his best players tomorrow. Anzhi miss the injured L Diarra. Backing Eto’o and his Anzhi.

Young Boys - Udinese 2.63 - 2.76

Time for a win for the home side, or they have they already given up on success in Europe? Suffice to say that they have started poorly losing both their group games. 3-5 at home to the Liverpool youngsters/reserves was not the best of starts for the Swiss. Spycher and J Simpson are on their injury list. Their main danger man is Bobadilla.
The same Liverpool, a bit better at least on paper, were given a lesson at home to Udinese, with the Italians winning the match 3-2. The big Swede Ranegie will probably start upfront for Udinese probably supported by Lazzari and Fabbrini, meaning that Di Natale will not play from the start. Pinzi, Pasquale, Basta and Muriel are on their injury list. So could be that Udinese will start with a weaker line up than against Liverpool, but they have travelled with a very strong squad. Away win is more appealing to this writer.

Atletico Madrid - Academica 1.25 - 17.00

I take it for granted that Atletico will continue fielding a mixed side in Europe and I also take it almost for granted that they will be strong to win against this mediocre Portugese side. Yes, half a dozen A Madrid regulars, including Falcao will not be involved in this game. Should Academica defend for their lives maybe they can reach a draw against a rather unmotivated home side, but I do not think so.

Hapoel Tel Aviv - Victoria Plzen 2.95 - 2.50

My choice will be the away win. Plzen lost to a last minute goal away to A Madrid, while Hapoel went down 0-3 against A Madrid in Israel. In both these games A Madrid featured an alternative side. I do not expect an easy ride for Plzen in this match, but I quite often find myself backing this rather good Czech side and they rarely have let me down. They are a good side in with a chance in most games and this 2.50 is a decent price on the away win.

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Marseille 2.40 - 3.28

No doubt, Borussia are in a middle of a rather big crisis. The way they went down to Werder Bremen at the weekend (0-4) after some recent poor results certainly gives evidence of some kind of crisis.
Marseille I watched the other night. They lost to last placed Troyes and Marseille looked surprisingly devoid of ideas. There was no speed to their game, they lacked the necessary intensity and commitment and this surprised me. OK, maybe they did not deserve to lose, but I do not know, Troyes hit the wood work before their winning goal. Gignac is out injured for Marseille.
Struggling home team against a Marseille side on their way down in form. And the outcome? My choice will be the home win.

AEL Limassol - Fenerbahce 4.23 - 2.10

The home side seems to be in a mess and the away win is worth backing.
AEL, after a poor campaign, have just sacked their coach and a new one, a Portugese, is on his way of joining the club. Success in Europe is probably not first on his agenda and it will be difficult after their opening two group games.
Fenerbahce have a quite strong squad. They should do better, although their 4-2 away win against Borussia Möchengladbach was a great result. Important Raul Meireles will miss tomorrow’s match. Backing the away win.

Newcastle - Club Brugge 1.70 - 5.98

Will Newcastle send out a very strong side again? As I just pointed out their starting line up against Bordeaux was much stronger than I had expected. It looks like they will field a side as strong as against Bordeaux and then they should be able to defeat this Brugge side, a side playing with a much weakened defensive line at the moment. Very likely home winner.

Maritimo - Bordeaux 3.06 - 2.63

This Portugese side did not impress in their previous home game in this group. They were second best to the Newcastle reserves, but managed to draw the match 0-0. Bordeaux have shown us two faces this far. Superior at home to a weakened C Brugge side, but then more or less outclassed by a Newcastle side, a Newcastle side in much better shape than against Maritimo.
Bordeaux will be able to call on Henrique and Tremoulinas again for this match. They were suspended in the league. Missing will be Sane and Diabate. X2 game.

Steaua Bukarest - Molde 1.67 - 6.00

Molde were leading 1-0 away to Strömsgodset with only minutes to go at the weekend. Unfortunately for Molde the league leaders managed a late equaliser. Still the race is very much on and could be that their European campaign will suffer a bit. Once again I have to report that Molde will face Rosenborg in a few days and this Europa League fixture could be a bit overlooked by Solskjaer and his team. Not that Solskjaer accepts losing any football games.
Steaua have impressed and they will get my vote in this match, but the odds have been lowered too much these last few days.

Stuttgart - FC Copenhagen 1.62 - 6.02

Stuttgart definitely over their recent mini crisis, at least domestically. At the weekend they won deservedly away to Hamburg. Winless in Europe they need to win this match and they are very much aware of this. Defence man A Boka is out injured.
Copenhagen are enjoying a steady season. No real dips and no real heights this far and they will most likely go on to winning the Danish league title. They do not have the quality to match a Stuttgart side in form and that is the key issue here. I had no problems opposing Stuttgart away to Molde, but I have a distinct feeling that we are about to se a much better Stuttgart side in this match. The odds on the home win, however, are a joke.

P S V - A I K 1.21 - 15.46

Very much involved in the Swedish title race I do not think that AIK will take too many risks in Europe, now that they have lost their two group games. Definitely the home win.

Dnipro - Napoli 2.20 - 3.75

One thing is sure. Napoli have to play with a much stronger squad tomorrow than against PSV in their last group game, or they will have no chance against this rather strong Ukrainian side. I watched them away to Swedish AIK and Dnipro are strong and usually much better in their home fixtures.
Napoli have travelled with a strong squad basically only missing Hamsik and Maggio, but there is no guarantee that all their first choices will play from the start. I am closer to backing the home win.

Videoton - Basel 3.12 - 2.45

What I have seen this far this fixture is about coming second in this group after Genk. Basel, with their experienced squad on this European level, are favourites to advance to the play offs, but I would not bet on it. M Yakin, former Swiss international, is the new Basel coach. His first game in charge ended in defeat against Luzern 0-1. A Frei and Streller played upfront as usual and F Frei also played of course. Yakin is most eager to win tomorrow’s match to get his new career going
Videoton have offered some strong home displays winning comfortably against both Trabzonspor and Sporting Lisbon, but they are struggling in their domestic league, on seventh position. They lost to a Budapest team last week. Basel should be the stronger side, but I am not all convinced.

Genk - Sporting Lisbon 2.70 - 2.75

Backing the home win and surprisingly good odds. Genk are in quite good form and they seem to have a serious interest in the Europa League. Simaeys, Hyland, Joneleit and Kennedy remain on the sidelines.
Sporting are struggling big time and I am talking about their overall contributions this season. They do not seem to care about playing in Europe and they are close to the relegation zone in the Portugese league. At the weekend they lost again, this time to lowly Moreierense. Out injured are Carrico and Pereirinha. Genk to win.

Rubin Kazan - Neftchi 1.29 - 14.64

I will not say more about this fixture than about Rubin’s last home game, vs. Partizan. The Russians must be expected to defeat their Asian neighbours from Azerbaijan and then you do what you like with this 1.29 on the home win. Not for me.

Inter - Partizan Belgrade 1.36 - 10.35

It certainly looks like Inter are treating the Europa League with some respect. Their starting eleven away to Neftchi (3-1 win) was quite impressive. Players like Alvarez, Coutinho and Livaja will start tomorrow and Silvestre and Nagatomo will be back in their defence. I only miss Sneijder and Stankovic in their 21 man squad. Trusting Inter in these kinds of European games is out of the question for me, but I have no intention of making a case for Partizan either.

Sparta Prague - Hapoel KS 1.57 - 7.12

Home winner! Sparta had no problems defeating Atletic in their last home game prolonging their excellent results in their European home fixtures. Sorry, I have nothing really to say about this Israeli side, but sure enough Sparta will be the winners.

Lyon - Atletic Bilbao 1.94 - 4.50

You cannot do more than win your matches and that is what Lyon have achieved this far in Europe. They have not at all performed at their highest level, or there is no high level to talk about for Lyon this season.
A Bilbao are slowly getting better, but their results are certainly nothing to brag about. Still their latest domestic displays indicate a certain improvement , but so far we have not seen this in Europe. Bielsa has taken 20 players with him to France and only Inigo Perez is out injured at the moment.
I expect both these rather big sides to wake up tomorrow. I mean, Lyon are usually playing in the Champions League and Atletic Club played in the Europa league final last season.
Both teams on the score sheet, an over game in other words, but which side will win the match? I rest my case.

Panathinaikos - Lazio 3.20 - 2.40

Although Panathinaikos have been struggling this season they demonstrated good morale and some improved football at home to Tottenham. They were down 0-1 and looked out of the match, but picked themselves up and reached a deserved 1-1 draw.
Lazio have travelled with a strong squad to Greece, but which players will actually start the match? Remains to be seen. Lazio have a tricky away game against Fiorentina in the league in a few days time. Lazio will definitely be without their keeper Marchetti, Lulic and Ederson, but Radu will make his come back in this game. At most a draw is within reach for Lazio, at least in my opinion. 1X game.

Maribor - Tottenham 5.50 - 1.73

I am not saying that Maribor will be the winners here, but the home win looks overpriced. Maribor are as strong as Panathinaikos and what I know Tottenham could not defeat the Greeks a few weeks ago (1-1). Panathinaikos are a bigger club than Maribor, but we must not forget that Maribor were 3-0 winners at home to Panathinaikos. No Vidovic for Maribor.
Could be that G Bale, who did not play for Tottenham at the weekend, will play for Spurs in this game and that is not good news for Maribor. Something on the home win.

Rosenborg - Metalist Kharkiv 3.00 - 2.45

It is a battle on two fronts for Rosenborg. They are very much involved in the Norwegian title race, but they also want to succeed in Europe. Top priority? Winning the league, no doubt. They are injury free at the moment, but I do not think that they will be playing with their best side in this game. Why? They will face Molde this weekend, biggest game of the season for Rosenborg. Latest training session, however, indicates that Rosenborg will send out their strongest eleven tomorrow
This great Metalist side managed an impressive win in the Ukrainian league in their last league game defeating D Kiev away from home 3-1. Taison, Torres and Xavier were their scorers. No Russian names, but it is well known fact that South Americans are dominating their squad. It will be cold tomorrow, not a pleasant climate for South Americans, but I guess that they are used to freezing conditions. They are playing in Ukraine after all. I prefer the away win alternative.

Rapid Wien - Bayer Leverkusen 5.36 - 1.80

Two losses in this group for Rapid and how motivated will they be tomorrow, especially after their derby loss against Austria Wien at the weekend. Losing their previous home game in this group against Rosenborg was a hammer blow, while their loss vs. Metalist was nothing to moan about.
Bayer are a class act and they will most likely do enough to win this match. This they managed away to Rosenborg, with their winning goal coming late but deserved. Both their midfielders S Reinartz and S Sam are out of this match and they have travelled to Austria with only fifteen players. Likely away win.

Helsingborg - Hannover 4.31 - 1.95

Decent side this Swedish Helsingborg team. They could not hold on to their 2-0 lead at home to Twente, but they have the capacity to defeat teams like Hannover and Twente. Not when these respected European sides are playing their best football, but on days when they are slightly off key. Accam and Sörum, the Helsinborg forwards, started on the bench at the weekend. The Helsingborg squad is quite fit at the moment.
Hannover, down to ten men, found a way of defeating Levante in their last group game and I accept them as rather big favourites in this match. Tomorrow they will miss their two defenders Haggui and Felipe. Chr. Schulz could start. Hannover backable as 1.95 favourites? No, I do not think so.

Levante - Twente 2.40 - 3.23

Mission accomplished this weekend for Levante. That is what I think after their important late win against Getafe at the weekend. It was a terrible game of football, I must say. I have my doubts about their overall interest in the Europa League. They were pure lucky defeating Helsingborg in their previous home game and their Europa league side, 11 vs. 10 on the pitch, could not hold on to their 1-0 lead against Hannover. I said Europa League side, because they like to change things around for their European fixtures. O Martins will not play and D Navarro and Dudka will not feature either. There could be more changes.
Twente demonstrated will and morale when they fought back from 0-2 down away to Helsingborg. Chadli, their winger, ran the show. I just checked their squad and they have travelled with their best players. I prefer the away win.

EUROPE: Champions League - Group Stage Prediction 24/10/2012

Arsenal - Schalke 04 2.05 - 4.00

Late October and already I have to state some uncomfortable facts. I was wrong about Arsenal and they will not win the Premiership this season either. Now all teams know what Arsenal are all about. Take care of Cazorla and Arsenal will be less of a threat. Diaby, Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain are among the Arsenal injury victims at the moment.
Schalke come to this match high on confidence after their famous away win against Borussia Dortmund. In their last Champions League group game however, they disappointed hugely conceding a late equaliser against ten man Montpellier. Draxler could feature, but defender Papadopoulos will not take part in this game. Looking at the odds there is no doubt, the home win has to be backed.

Porto - Dinamo Kiev 1.62 - 6.50

Very likely home win. Porto won deservedly against PSG although their winning goal arrived late in the game. They are not likely to drop any home points and there is nothing great about this version of D Kiev. They are 8-0-4 in the Ukrainian league and in their last league game they went down to Metalist Kharkiv 1-3 with D Kiev the home side. Porto should be the winners.

Dynamo Zagreb - P S G 6.25 - 1.65

I should probably say something about D Zagreb and their shortcomings in Europe. They are used to losing their matches, but this fact does not make me want to bet on this poor price on the away win. PSG are probably a team that will improve with time, but they are not at all a top side for the time being. They have a bunch of strong individuals like Ibrahimovic and T Silva, but the team as such does not look convincing. Many PSG players are injured at the moment, important players like Lavezzi, T Motta, Nene, Chantome and Sakho. No bet for now.

Montpellier - Olympiakos 2.10 - 4.20

Very tempting odds on the away win. Absolutely worth backing. Olympiakos are old foxes in Europe and they often offer quite strong displays also away from home. They could easily have gotten something from their recent visit to the Emirates, but at the end of the day they were beaten 1-3 by Arsenal. In the domestic league they are 7-0-0 this far. Djebbour scored twice for Olympiakos at the weekend.
Montpellier are a losing side this season and their only bright moment was late on against Schalke when they managed a late equaliser totally out of the blue. They keep on letting their fans down in the league and they lost against at the weekend, this time away to Rennes, 1-2. Bocaly will be suspended for this fixture and Ait-Fana and Estrada are on their injury list. Yanga Mbiwa, suspended on the domestic front, could play here. Crazy odds on the away win and I will go all in.

Zenit - Anderlecht 1.53 - 8.03

Zenit are another Russian side that so often makes it difficult for themselves, down 0-2 at home to Milan after half an hour in their last group game. Zenit are a strong side, they fought back, but a heroic display from the Milan keeper Abbiati stopped Hulk and the other Zenit forwards from winning the match. In true Russian fashion Zenit conceded a late goal and in some unbelievable way they ended up losing the game (2-3). Hulk, Kerzhakov and probably Bystrov will do the attacking job tomorrow.
Anderlecht look poor and they were outclassed at home by Malaga. The Belgians had nothing offensively to offer and for this match they have to manage without their striker M’bokani along with M Bruno. Home win every day of the week.

Malaga - Milan 2.10 - 3.96

Malaga have been amazing so far this season. It is quite possible however that they peaked away to Anderlecht. In my opinion they will not be able to top that performance and they already struggled at home to Valladolid at the weekend. They won the home match 2-1, but their winning goal arrived late. Monreal, left back, will not recover for this match and Eliseu will once again be his replacement. Eliseu did not look comfortable against Valladolid. Recio, Duda or Iturra will join Camacho in the middle of the park.
Milan were 0-3 down against an incredibly effective Lazio side at the weekend, but they managed a late come back with the match ending 2-3. Milan were not that bad, but they are a luckless side at the moment, low on confidence. Unfortunately for Milan Abbiati has not recovered and Amelia will be the Milan keeper tomorrow.
That is why Malaga are as low priced as 2.10 against famous Milan. A confident side against a Milan side in some kind of depression. Still we must not forget, this is the Champions League and Milan have done alright so far with one draw and one win in the bag. Sorry, I cannot trust Malaga in this match. Goals? Yes!

Ajax - Manchester City 5.10 - 1.80

You know that Real Madrid will win away to Ajax, but it does not feel the same way when Man City are facing the Amsterdam side. I mean, City are almost as strong as Madrid, but they have so far never demonstrated their real strength in Europe. Something happens when Man City are playing in the Champions League and it is not to their advantage. Man City where so lucky drawing at home to Borussia Dortmund after a sluggish display.
City look really strong on the domestic front and squad wise they look OK, but they have to play without D Silva. Kun Aguero will start again.
Ajax were 2-0 up against Heracles at the weekend, but after the 90 minutes the match was a 3-3 draw. They fielded their best side. My choice has to be the away win.

Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid 3.50 - 2.21

Every game has its own life. It is an old cliche, but worth repeating. Dortmund were excellent away to Man City, but a few days ago they lost a rare home game in the Bundesliga, 1-2 against Schalke. Goetze, Guendogan and Schmelzer were all missing and they are injury doubts for this match. It looks like Goetze and Schmelzer could be back, but no Guendogan. Blasczykowski is out injured.
Real are struggling defensively at the moment and against Celta Vigo at the weekend M Essien had to play in their defence, Varane as well together with Pepe as centre backs. Marcelo, Arbeloa and Coentrao remain on the sidelines, but Khedira will make a timely return tomorrow. The draw, score draw, say 2-2.

Football picks 17/10/2012

Poland - England 4.42 - 2.00

Obraniak will be back in contention for the home side, but they will face this game without their captain Blaszczykowski. The B Dortmund midfielder is injured and his midfield colleague Polanski will also be missing. England will welcome back a host of players for this match. S Gerrard, G Johnson, J Defoe, J Lescott, A Cole and J Milner will all be available again, but T Walcott and F Lampard will not take part in this fixture. Poland were poor in their own EURO tornament, but they have a new coach these days and I should not be talking about Smuda’s Poland any more. I thought that Poland would lose away to Montenegro, but they managed a deserved 2-2 draw. X2 game, this one.

Football picks 16/10/12 World Cup Qualification

Belarus - Georgia 2.15 - 4.00

Will it continue like this for Belarus? They have lost their three qualifying games, but at the same time their leading club Bate Borisov are excelling in the Champions League. How come? Losing away to France and losing at home to Spain look like normal results and their slender 0-1 loss away to Georgia was not much of an upset either and in reality nothing really strange has taken place. A Hleb was back for Belarus at home to Spain, but he could not stop the champions from winning the match 4-0. Georgia drew 1-1 away to ten man Finland in their recent qualifier. Before that they barely lost their home qualifier against Spain 0-1, with Spain scoring their goal late in the game. All well so far for Georgia, but I expect them to be on the losing side tomorrow. Likely home winner.

Spain - France 1.55 - 8.43

Banker as well? Well, there is this old respect for “les Bleus”, the French national side, but I have no major argument for any result but the home win. Pedro scored a hat trick for Spain last week in Minsk with Spain winning the match 4-0. Suffice it to say that Spain look close to unbeatable. Cabaye will be back on the French midfield for this match, Ribery will also return and Evra will most likely start in their defence again. All three were rested in a recent friendly game. Chantome, Diaby and Mavuba are on their injury list. Benzema from the start? Likely home winner, but I do not feel good about the odds.

Faroe Islands - Republic of Ireland 13.71 - 1.29

Why not the home win! Faroe Islands were on their way of defeating Sweden last week, but changing a couple of faces in the second half made it possible for Hamren’s Sweden to turn the game, winning the match 2-1. A certain Kacaniklic, playing for Fulham, made the difference. Anyway the Faroes are better than people like to think, especially on their own plastic turf. Eire were embarassed in front of 50.000 of their own fans by Germany 1-6 and this result only cemented my firm belief that they were by far the poorest side in the EURO tournament. Some positive piece of news for the Irish. Robbie Keane has travelled with the squad to the Islands. Backing the home win.

Slovakia - Greece 2.50 - 3.25

Tricky as hell this one! I do not really know where to place this Slovakian side. Are they totally Hamsik dependant, or what? Bakos and Holosko, their two strikers, are not going through the best of times. So far Slovakia have not done anything remarkable in this group, while Greece belong to the category of hard to beat sides. V Weiss has been declared fit to play for the home side and Greece will miss their suspended defender Malezas. The draw? OK!

Cyprus - Norway 4.57 - 1.95

According to reports it was a very much improved Norwegian side that deservedly managed a draw against the Swiss. Norway could have won the match, hitting the wood work late on in the game. Drillo’s team played smart defensive football and their dead ball situations caused problems for the home side. For this match they have to manage without their suspended midfielder H Nortveit. One of Hauger, Henriksen or Wolff Ekrem will be his replacement. Aloneftis, the Apoel winger, made a strong impression coming on as a second half substitute for Cyprus against Slovenia. (1-2 loss) He scored the Cypriotic goal and Cesar, the Slovenian defender, was red carded trying to stop Aloneftis. I should probably say something about the Cypriotic home strength, but I am not 100% certain that this is the case for this Cypriotic national side. Their leading clubs, yes. Still 4.57 is a big price, is it not?, but I will not back the home win.

Iceland - Switzerland 4.70 - 1.88

I do not know if it was the torrential rain, the soggy pitch, but fact is that Iceland deservedly defeated Albania in Tirana. Maybe it was almost like playing at home. This Icelandic side, coached by the experienced Lagerbäck, is probably their best ever, but I could not see them winning against Albania. Well organised, for sure, but there also some great individuals in their squad. The Tottenham midfielder Sigurdsson of course, captain Gunnarsson and my own favourite, their striker Finnbogasson. Unfortunately for Iceland the ever present, the all important A Gunnarsson will be suspended for this match. His midfield colleague H Danielsson will not be available either, but defence man S Ottesen will be back from his suspension. The Swiss passed the ball round with confidence at home to Norway, but they had constant problems dealing with the Norwegian long balls. Rather typical that the Fulham defender Hangeland scored the Norwegian goal from a corner. Football fever in Iceland? I should think so and there is every reason for the Swiss to tremble, should it be a cold and rainy evening tomorrow. Under normal circumstances I expect Switzerland to return home with the three points.

Albania - Slovenia 3.30 - 2.39

Should really Slovenia be the favourites? I do not think so. That is all I have to say, but I should perhaps mention that Slovenia will be without their suspended defender Cesar.

Ukraine - Montenegro 1.80 - 5.33

It was one way traffic for Ukraine away to Moldova. They dominated the match, but at the end of the day match the match ended in a score less draw. Their 1-1 draw away to England was a much better result, was it not? For Montengro Pavicevic will be back for his suspension. Vukinic and Jovetic will hopefully decide this match in favour of the Montenegrins. The outcome? Just think that the home win is underpriced.

Poland - England 4.42 - 2.00

Obraniak will be back in contention for the home side, but they will face this game without their captain Blaszczykowski. The B Dortmund midfielder is injured and his midfield colleague Polanski will also be missing. England will welcome back a host of players for this match. S Gerrard, G Johnson, J Defoe, J Lescott, A Cole and J Milner will all be available again, but T Walcott and F Lampard will not take part in this fixture. Poland were poor in their own EURO tornament, but they have a new coach these days and I should not be talking about Smuda’s Poland any more. I thought that Poland would lose away to Montenegro, but they managed a deserved 2-2 draw. X2 game, this one.

Macedonia - Serbia 4.00 - 2.12

Is not the home win over priced? Macedonia lost an evenly matched affair against Croatia (1-2) and surely Croatia are stronger than this Serbian side. I cannot really see Macedonia losing two home games in a week, but I am aware, this is not a very scientific approach. Serbia missed their chances in the first half against Belgium and this proved costly with Belgium in total control in the second half of the game. What can I say! Serbia look a bit wanting offensively, but alas, so does this Macedonian side. Their ace G Pandev will not play tomorrow and this piece of news makes it difficult to actually back the home win. Subotic could start in the Serbian defence, maybe Matic on their midfield. I have to skip this match from a betting perspective..

Italy - Denmark 1.53 - 8.05

In trouble every so often, but Italy have this great habit of winning almost all of their qualifying games. This was the case against Armenia, but at the end of the day Italy won the tricky away game 3-1. Buffon risks losing this match and in that case De Sanctis will be his replacement. Chiellini will start in their defence with his work singled out – stop Bendtner from scoring! Balotelli could be ready, or El Shaarawy will replace Giovinco alongside Osvaldo. Abate will most likely come in for Maggio in defence. The Danish forward A Cornelius will be suspended for this game and Jörgensen is out injured. The Danes have yet to perform at their highest level and they should have done better against ten man Bulgaria last week. (1-1) Depressing odds on the home win, that is all I know.

Czech Republic - Bulgaria 1.70 - 6.00

So Bulgaria have to play an away fixture after three home games on the bounce. Popov and Rangelow started upfront at home to Denmark, but it turned out to be a strange game, as Bulgaria had to play with ten men for an hour or so. This Bandalovski fellow will be suspended tomorrow. The Bulgarian offence does not impress me, but I could say the same about the Czech artillery. Still I expect the Czechs to win this match, or the 0-0 draw will be the result.

Romania - Netherlands 5.00 - 1.81

Three group games played and Romania have yet to concede a single goal. OK, winning against Estonia and Andorra was nothing special, but their win away to Turkey last week is a strong result every day of the week. Fantastic defence? Not really, R Rat is old, but still great, but the WBA defence man G Tamas is not even a regular for his club, Bourceanu a real fighter and so on. This will be the real test against Van Persie and his colleagues. Could be that the Romanian coach will make a couple of changes for this match. He is talking about exhausted players. Mutu could come in for Grozav, Chipciu could replace Stancu and so on. Van Persie, by the way, was rested at the week end, but he will be back playing upfront for Holland. Sneijder and Robben are sidelined at the moment. The Dutch have so many strong players, but Sneijder is always missed. I prefer the away win.

Hungary - Turkey 2.75 - 2.80

Yes, it certainly looks like Hungary no longer are the typical home side. Their win away to Estonia was their second away win on the trot. Turkey are struggling big time after yet another loss in a qualifying game. They looked quite toothless at home to Romania and I guess that their coach is hanging on the ropes. My intention was to back the home win, but with both Dzsudzsak and Juhasz suspended for Hungary I will stay away from this bet. Defence man Gokhan Gonul and M Topal are new on the Turkish injury list. No Yilmaz, no A Turan either. Turkey have to go for the three points, Hungary always play attacking football in their home games and my conclusion will be: over game!