Saturday, October 27, 2012

Soccer prediction 27/10/2012


Lille - Valenciennes 1.65 - 7.00

My pick will be the outsider. Lille are the better side? Of course they are, when they are in form, that is. At the moment Valenciennes look the stronger side and they are four points ahead of Lille in the league table.
The away side will also this week miss the injured duo Mater and Nery. Time for Pujol to play some part for Valenciennes. The striker has been injured this season. Another striker, Le Tallec should be OK to play.
Lille played against Bayern Munich earlier this week and they suffered their third straight Champions League defeat. So far it is not working for Lille this season, pure lucky drawing at Bordeaux last week. Basa, Mavuba and Gueye are major injury doubts. Form beats class, hopefully.

Arsenal - Q P R 1.40 - 9.50

A Ferdinand and Onuoha came on as late substitutes for QPR last week and defensively QPR are beginning to look sound again. What they need right now is a win, any kind of win, to kick start their stumbling season. If I compare the QPR squad to the likes of Wigan, Reading, Southampton, Norwich and so on, no way they ought to be behind these sides in the league table. QPR need a lucky break, but will it happen tomorrow?
Quite amazing how the Arsenal season so quickly turned sour. I have seen them playing two games in four days, against Norwich and Schalke, and they have not really produced a single scoring chance. Half chances, yes, but no open ones. Sagna could be back for this match, maybe also Oxlade-Chamberlain, J Wilshere on the bench, but it is too early for Walcott and Diaby. As Arsenal so clearly have lost all their confidence I can see QPR causing an upset in this London derby. Something on the away win.

Aston Villa - Norwich 1.95 - 4.30

Trying to write something about this fixture the name of Paul Lambert constantly pops up in my mind. It was Lambert who brought Norwich to the Premiership after some barren years and it was Lambert who coached Norwich last season. Their come back season was a success, but it did not stop Lambert from leaving Norwich for Aston Villa. Lambert’s Villa have struggled so far, one win and only six goals scored.
Not that Norwich have done any better, but their league win arrived last week and it was their best performance of the season, 1-0 against Arsenal. Grant Holt has woken up from his early season slumber and there is always hope when Holt is on fire. R Snodgrass could be back for the home side.
N Baker, the Villa centre half is struggling with an injury and he will be assessed tonight. Lowton is ready to fill in for Baker. C Clark is also an injury doubt. Lambert knows everything there is to know about Holt and his Norwich colleagues and at the end of day I expect Villa to win this fixture, 1-0 or 2-0 home win.

Chelsea - Manchester Utd 2.47 - 3.25

It was tough for Chelsea in Ukraine. The speedy Shaktar players came in wave after wave and Chelsea really should have lost with more than the one goal (1-2). J Terry and F Lampard will miss this game, but that is OK. Chelsea will be able to field the same starting eleven that impressed hugely against Tottenham a week ago. Lampard is no good in a game like this one.
R Ferdinand and Evra will most likely return to the United defence. Kagawa will miss the match, but he can be replaced, as both Valencia and A Young are available again. So a better looking United defence for this match than against Braga, but my call in this fixture will be the home win.

Everton - Liverpool 2.76 - 2.76

In my world I would have Everton as 2.30 favourites in the derby. OK, it is not perfect for Everton to be missing both Fellaini and Pienaar, but they play better, more effective football than Liverpool, at least this far. Yes, they have six more points than Liverpool. Reports are now saying there is a chance that Fellaini will recover for this match and the same goes for D Gibson.
If you put the Liverpool 5-2 win against Norwich aside you have to say that they are close to harmless. Their fixture list has not exactly been the toughest one, but all they mustered in their two recent home games vs. Stoke and Reading was the one goal.
Liverpool fielded a surprisingly strong squad against Anzhi last night only changing their line up on three positions. Advantage Everton on Sunday? Derby game, anything may happen red cards and the rest, but my call will be the home win.

Manchester City - Swansea 1.25 - 15.00

I guess the City coach Mancini is thinking to himself: thank God for the Premiership. He knows how to play City in this league, but obviously he has not the necessary know how for the European circuit. This I can state now after a string of lacklustre City displays in Europe.
The question must be asked. Will the owners accept the Mancini shortcomings? J Milner will be suspended for this game and it is probably too early for D Silva.
Swansea will play their customary passing game and it may take a while for City to get the upper hand in this match. There is talk about mutiny in the Man City dressing room and I would never touch this 1.25 on the home win.

Newcastle - W B A 2.01 - 4.00

Decent odds on the home win, or is it just my old head talking? If nothing else it was easy to see that Newcastle were better than Sunderland in the northern derby and no way that they would have dropped any points if Tiote has stayed on the pitch. Newcastle look strong and their defensive worries are over for the moment. No Tiote on Sunday.
Maybe the WBA coach has some regrets after their loss against Man City. He should have played with Lukaku earlier in the game and the loss would probably had been avoided. I have nothing negative to say about this WBA side. It is just that I think that Newcastle are a better footballing side. Home winner.

Reading - Fulham 2.93 - 2.60

Time for the first Reading three pointer? Why not! You can always reason with Fulham on their travels and rest assured that the Reading players will be extremely fired up for this game. In their last home fixture they dominated against Newcastle, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Next came a 2-2 draw at Swansea followed up by their 0-1 loss against Liverpool at Anfield. There is every reason to believe that Reading will offer a strong home display tomorrow. Noel Hunt will be ready again for the home side.
Duff will be back in contention for Fulham, maybe also B Ruiz. Fulham are unbeaten in their last four games, including two away fixtures, at Wigan (2-1) and Southampton (2-2).
They score on a regular basis these days and I will absolutely include the over alternative in this fixture. Home win and over game will be my two calls.

Southampton - Tottenham 4.35 - 1.90

Not too much to say about Southampton. If they do not strengthen their defensive line they will go on losing football games, it is as simple as that. Then they need R Lambert playing from the start. He is their main danger man, but he was kept on the bench during the first hour of their game against West Ham.
Finding out that Tottenham were missing both G Bale and Dembele gave at least this writer only one option, Chelsea had to be backed. Spurs without Bale are not the same, but in this game against Chelsea their defence, and especially Gallas was a big disappointment. G Bale will be back for this match and quite possible that both Adebayor and Dembele will also return. Away win and over game.

Stoke - Sunderland 2.10 - 4.37

Not the kind of football game that I would choose to watch. An old fashioned game of English football at the Britannia Stadium and the winners will be the side that are most efficient at using the different dead ball situations.
Sounds like Stoke will grab the three points. G Whelan will be back in contention for Stoke.
Stoke are unbeaten at their stadium, while Sunderland have drawn three of their four away fixtures. I was not impressed by the Sunderland display in the derby. Where was the creativity? Sunderland play like that, get the ball into the penalty area as soon as possible and hope for the best, a bit like Stoke actually. L Cattermole will play/fight again for Sunderland. I prefer the home win.

Wigan - West Ham 2.37 - 3.33

Quoting a great Bob Dylan song: “It is not dark yet, but it is getting there.” I am thinking about Wigan and the fact they are winless in their last five games. In fact their only win was early season away to Southampton.
They were certainly not miles away from getting something from their visit to Swansea, but they ended up losing the game 1-2. They will be unchanged for this match, while defender O’Brien will be back bolstering the West Ham defence.
Different world altogether for West Ham with 4-2-2 after eight rounds of league football. Maybe Wigan can draw some comfort from the fact that West Ham so far have produced less effective football on their travels, but still, they won their last away game, if you can call a fixture at the Loftus Road an away game for West Ham. A draw is all that Wigan will manage tomorrow.

Barnsley – Nottingham Forrest 2.92 - 2.54

Away win will be my choice. Short trip for Nottingham. Should be like a derby, but I would not know. Nottingham are one of the better sides in this division, but they have drawn too many games this far. In midweek they visited Blackpool and managed to draw the match 2-2. It was a good result, at least in my opinion.
Nottingham have three very useful strikers, B Sharp, S Cox and D Blackstock and it was Blackstock who scored their equaliser against Blackpool coming on as a late substitute. Defender Ayala is considered a major doubt for this match and Guedioura will complete his suspension this weekend.
Barnsley are forced to play without their leading striker C Davies (7 goals). His partner C Dagnall was replaced after 17 minutes against Crystal Palace, but why, I do not know. Suffice to say that Barnsley will be weakened offensively for this match. Backing Nottingham.

Espanyol - Malaga 3.00 - 2.58

I will back Espanyol also this week. Their 3-2 win against Vallecano last week, first win of the season, was far from convincing. Still Espanyol had their all important win and I expect a better, more relaxed Espanyol performance tomorrow.
Their defender Colotto will be suspended for this match and Javi Lopez, midfielder, will not be fit to play. Stuani came on for Lopez last week scoring the winning goal for Espanyol. We will absolutely see more of Sergio Garcia, but Albin and Mattioni remain on the sidelines.
Malaga won again in Europe, this time against Milan. Their win was totally in order. Joaquin missed a penalty late in the first half. There is no way that Malaga will be at their best in this match. I have seen it so many times before, how new sides playing in the Champions League will suffer in the league. It has not happened yet for Malaga, but surely their rather small squad will be stretched at the moment. Espanyol to win.

Bologna - Inter 3.90 - 2.19

It was close but Bologna should not have too many complaints about their 0-1 loss away to Cagliari. They will probably be unchanged for this match with both Aquafresca and Gimenez sidelined. Diamanti will hopefully, for Bologna, make it possible for Gilardino to find the Inter goal. Inter go on missing Sneijder.
Four wins on the bounce for Inter, while Bologna are going through a very lean period. They had this great win at home to Catania, but before and after they have achieved practically nothing. Likely away win.

Catania -. Juventus 5.40 - 1.74

Potential banana skin number two for Juventus this week. Number one was in Denmark against Nordsjälland (1-1). Juventus dominated against the Danes, but they lacked the necessary sharpness, or they were not creative enough?
Catania are certainly no pushovers down in Sicily. They are 3-1-0 this far at their own place and they fear no team there.
Lichtsteiner, Asamoah and Vucinic will most likely start for Juventus this time. Another draw for Juventus!

Fiorentina - Lazio 2.25 - 3.62

Aquilani and Llama are at last back in training for Fiorentina, but for this match they have to manage without the suspended Pizarro and Roncaglia. Luca Toni will play alongside Jovetic in their front line and Cuadrado and Olivera will play in their midfield together with M Fernandez, Borja Valero and Pasquale. Marchetti, the Lazio first choice keeper, will miss this game.
Fiorentina are 3-1-0 in their home games and they have only conceded one goal in their home fixtures. At the same time Lazio have been surprisingly strong in their away fixtures (3-0-1 so far). A draw and every one will be reasonably happy.

Milan - Genoa 1.57 - 8.00

Must be a great side Milan, as low priced as 1.57 against Genoa. The bookies seem to know what I know. Genoa have to manage without Borriello, Jorquera and Canini, all in action last week. Rossi, Ferronetti and Vargas will be absent again.
New Genoa coach, Delneri, and this will be his first game in charge. He will probably use a 4-4-4-1-1 formation with Bertolacci supporting Immobile upfront.
Abbiati and Boateng could be back for Milan. Milan should win this match, but the odds are unacceptable.

Napoli - Chievo 1.42 - 9.49

For long periods Napoli were absolutely as strong as Juventus last week, but the many offensive options available for Juventus decided the match in favour of the league leaders.
Pelissier was not fit to play for Chievo last week, but for this match he will be back along with Cruzado. Andreolli will start in their defence with both Cesar and Sardo out injured.
Cavani, Pandev, Hamsik and Maggio, among others, did not play, or only played a few minutes when Napoli went down to Dnipro in Europe last night. Home win, I guess.

Pescara - Atalanta 3.01 - 2.62

It is difficult for me. I have given up on Pescara and I never trust them to be on the winning side. I was not surprised that ten man Udinese proved too strong for Pescara last week. No Blasi for Pescara in this match, but Colucci should return. Quintero and Crescenzi risk missing this match.
Crucial win for an injury plagued Atalanta side against Siena. Carmona will be suspended for this game. He was red carded sitting on the bench. As I just said, I never seem to trust Pescara, but I must admit, this match looks winnable for the newcomers. Home win?

Roma - Udinese 1.62 - 6.11

Fantastic offensive football by Roma against Genoa. They just attacked with their entire team down 0-2 and it was a joy to watch their optimistic football. There were never any doubts, just keep on attacking. Totti played a big part in their 4-2 win. Same again? Well Destro has recovered from his injury, but both Totti and Balzaretti are major injury doubts.
Udinese miss Danilo, Basta, Pasquale, Pinzi and Muriel. Too short odds on the home win.

Sampdoria - Cagliari 2.25 - 3.80

Gastaldello, Sampdoria defender, will be back for this match, but his defensive colleague A Costa will serve his suspension this week and their keeper Romero as well. Pozzi and Krsticic will not be available, but hopefully Obiang and/or Poli will return.
Cagliari will once again miss Cossu and Pinilla. A Ekdal was their best player against Bologna and it has been a pleasant surprise to see his rapid improvement lately. 1X game.

Siena - Palermo 2.32 - 3.57

Rodriguez, the midfielder, is new on the Siena injury list, but Ze Eduardo will be available again. Rosina and Campagnolo are injured, but there is still hope that Rosina will recover for this fixture.
Miccoli and Brienza should return for Palermo. In other words we will see Miccoli from the start in this game. Their point reduction has made this fixture more or less a must win game for Siena. Palermo have scored one goal in their four away games and sure enough, you can almost always oppose Palermo in their away fixtures. Siena to win.

Torino - Parma 2.27 - 3.86

Hopefully for Torino, their best asset, the Italian international defender Ogbonna, will be back for this match. He could not play last week at Parma. Lucarelli and Benalouane will be available again for Parma, but Mirante and Galloppa are out of this fixture. Can a game be more difficult to predict than this one? The draw.

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