Europa League - Group Stage Prediction 22/11/2012

Anzhi - Udinese 1.67 - 6.00

No sparkling Anzhi form lately and they are no longer topping the Russian league. They have drawn their last two league games. Too many games, I guess, both at home in Europe and all this travelling. They are coached by Hiddink so they are well organised in other words, sound defensively, but they are not scoring too many goals.
Losing twice to Young Boys has almost ended the Udinese hopes in Europe. They still have a chance though and Udinese have travelled with a 20 man squad including Di Natale. I would not call it their strongest squad, as some eight usual squad players have not joined the travelling party, but it is still a competitive squad. The odds on the home win are a joke. You could get 1.90 or something like that against the Liverpool reserves two weeks ago.

Liverpool - Young Boys 1.50 - 8.72

I was not the only one who thought Young Boys would defeat the Liverpool reserves in their first meeting but Liverpool won the match 5-3. Since then Young Boys have improved their game and they have this great sharp shooter Bobadilla in their squad. Their keeper Wölfli is a doubt for this game.
Maybe Liverpool will have a slightly stronger starting line up tomorrow than they fielded away to Anzhi, but we can definitely talk about an alternative side. A side that coach Rodgers expects to do the job, winning tomorrow and reaching the play offs. I would never dream of backing this 1.50 on the home win. No bet game, or something on the Swiss.

Atletico Madrid - Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.17 - 20.02

1.17 on the Madrid reserves can never be a useful price and it does not matter if they are playing against a Hapoel side without any kind of qualifying chances.

Academica - V Plzen 2.70 - 2.85

It does not look too good for Academica, but their home win against the Atletico reserves gives the Portugese some slender hope of reaching the next phase. They have to defeat this strong Plzen side, revenging their 1-3 loss in the Czech Republic. Plzen are not easily beaten and I do not think that Academica will be the winners here.

Borussia Mönchengladbach - AEL Limassol 1.35 - 11.33

Must win game for Borussia, if they plan to reach the play offs and nothing, nothing at all at stake for AEL. Conclusion, the rather obvious one, the home win.

Marseille - Fenerbahce 1.84 - 5.20

Maybe it will prove decisive for Marseille conceding an injury time equaliser in their last match, at home to close rivals Borussia. Then again they were 0-2 down away to this Fenerbahce side, but managed to draw the match. A Ayew will be back to play for the home side, but they risk being without their best offensive player Valbuena.
Fenerbahce have been in impressive form in this group despite their somewhat disappointing home draw with Marseille. Fenerbahce scored four goals away to Borussia and I just have to back the great odds on the away win.

Newcastle - Maritimo 1.45 - 9.00

It is certainly true that Newcastle are going through a lean spell domestically, but so far they have lived up to expectations in Europe, unbeaten this far. No Cabaye, but both Coloccini and Papiss Cisse should be back in contention. I expect Newcastle to pick up their three pointer against this mediocre Portugese side.

Club Brugge - Bordeaux 2.70 - 2.75

It is heaven or hell for Brugge. First they lost to Anderlecht 1-6 and next week they outclassed a bottom side 6-2. In this group they were 2-0 up against Newcastle in their last game, but they could not hold on to their lead (2-2). They have a new coach, Garrido, former Villarreal coach, and he will hopefully lead this traditionally strong Belgian team to better, more normal times. He won his first game in charge, the above mentioned 6-2 victory.
Bordeaux won their massive home game against Marseille and this weekend it is time for another tough league game, at Montpellier. They may suffer tomorrow. Bordeaux will finish this group at home to Newcastle, a Newcastle side most likely already safe and they may slightly overlook tomorrow’s game. In form duo Gouffran and Obraniak will be rested tomorrow. I am closer to backing the home win.

Steaua Bukarest - Stuttgart 3.06 - 2.60

Great European campaign from the Romanian league leaders. Unbeaten this far in this group and their only dropped points were away to this Stuttgart side (2-2).
The Stuttgart form was poor at that moment, but they have improved immensely lately and that is why the bookies have made them close favourites in this game. Stuttgart are in grave danger of missing both their central defenders Tasci and Niedermeier tomorrow. Big blow of course. One can absolutely say that Stuttgart have more to play for, but I do not believe this. Surely Steaua would love to defeat a strong German side like Stuttgart. 1X game.

Molde - FC Copenhagen 2.50 - 3.03

Sandnes, a Norwegian club, needed not worry. Molde, already league winners, did their job at the weekend defeating Fredrikstad 2-0. In other words Molde are still competing and they are motivated favourites in this match.
Copenhagen defeated Molde 2-1 in Denmark, but facing Molde in Norway is something else. Molde are a terrific home side and their recent loss against Steaua had a lot to do with their league campaign.
Copenhagen are of course a very strong side on the Scandinavian market, probably the best, but I would not say that they are stronger than Molde at this very moment. I talk too much. Tricky as hell, but I prefer the home win.

PSV Eindhoven - Dnipro 1.75 - 5.50

It will probably be a stronger PSV side tomorrow than against AIK two weeks ago. J Lens, K Stootman and Van Bommel were all back playing for PSV at the weekend and I took it for granted that they should be involved in this must win game for PSV. Now it is not certain at all with coach Advocaat giving priority to their domestic league.
Dnipro can face this match in a rather relaxed mood well aware they have an “easy” home game against AIK next. There are always plenty of goals scored when Dnipro are playing and this match has the look of an over game. To back PSV I have to see their starting line up.

A I K - Napoli 4.70 - 1.80

Strange game down in Neapel when AIK lost the match. Napoli used their four scoring chances to maximum, while AIK wasted numerous open chances. AIK are a decent side demonstrated in their last group game, winning 1-0 against PSV. The AIK defence gave a good account of themselves.
Napoli do not look trustworthy at the moment and in my opinion they are too Cavani dependant for their own good. He scored all their goals at home to Dnipro two weeks ago. They say he will start tomorrow alongside Edu Vargas with Dzemali backing up the front duo. Behrami is back from his suspension and in defence Campagnaro will join Britos and Aronica.
Too bad for AIK, it is not even cold in Stockholm at the moment, but their pitch will be a mild shock for the Napoli players. OK, Cavani playing from the start stops me from backing the home win.

Videoton - Genk 2.61 - 2.79

This Hungarian side, coached by P Sousa, have won their two home games and thanks to their home strength they have a decent chance of reaching the play offs. They have to win this game, or they will come short.
Genk have been rather impeccable so far winning their home games and drawing their two away fixtures. Their last gasp equaliser against Sporting was a real morale booster for the Belgians. Videoton have not lost a home game in Europe for ages and they have to be backed in this, one of their most important games ever.

Basel - Sporting Lisbon 2.14 - 3.90

It looks like Basel are slowly improving under new coach Yakin. They reach better results on the domestic front, but they could only defeat Videoton 1-0 in their last group game. They dominated the match and the 0-1 loss was a flattering result for Videoton.
Sporting defeated Braga 1-0 in their last league game with Van Wolfswinkel scoring an early goal. I can imagine that the win was a most welcome one for their coach after some questionable displays. Sporting, down to ten men, conceded a last minute equaliser in their last group game, at home to Genk and their chances of qualifying are slim. Midfielder S Schaars will be suspended tomorrow. I would pick the home win alternative.

Rubin Kazan - Inter 2.36 - 3.92

Both are of course through to the next round. They have been in a class of their own in their group with Inter having fielded much stronger sides than I would have guessed. They have so many good players and even their second choices form a good side, but players like Palacio and Cassano have also taken part in their Europa League games. According to their web site there will be a massive turnover for this cup game. Cassano, Milito, Cambiasso, Samuel, Nagatomo and Handanovic have not made the journey to Russia.
Rubin drew 2-2 in Milan and in my mind there is no doubt that Rubin will be the more motivated side in this game. Rubin are a good side, strong at their own place and they will get my vote this time.

Neftchi - Partizan Belgrade 2.65 - 2.85

Just guessing here. In this match of little importance my gut feeling tells me that it is a bigger achievement for this Azerbaijan side to finish ahead of D Zagreb in the group than the other way around. First encounter between these two teams finished 0-0. Home win will be my guess.

Sparta Prague - Lyon 2.40 - 3.64

On maximum twelve points and their last group game at home to Hapoel I do not think that Lyon will give much importance to this game in Prague. They have one important match this week and it is not this one. It is on Sunday away to Toulouse. Players like Bisevac, Malbranque, Mvuemba, Lacazette, Lovren, Gomis, Briand and Bastos will not be involved in this game. Without trembling much I will back Sparta, one of the stronger home teams in Europe.

Hapoel KS - Athletic Bilbao 4.60 - 2.01

The game has been postponed. Too bad. A Bilbao had decided to play with only two,three regulars and the obvious choice here would be backing the home win.

Panathinaikos - Maribor 2.06 - 4.37

Panathinaikos are not enjoying the best of season but they have not lost any of their previous home games in this group. They were 0-1 down against both Lazio and Tottenham, but fought back in the second half of these games. In other words they have not stopped trying despite these testing times. Their coach left his job a week ago.
A win tomorrow for Maribor and they are in with a chance of qualifying for the next round. Backing the more motivated side, Maribor.

Lazio - Tottenham 2.45 - 3.25

I should think that both Mauri and Lulic, suspended at the weekend, will be back for the home side. Lazio played a highly competitive game against Juventus (0-0), but Lazio are lucky. They are not playing a Serie A game this weekend and they will play with their strongest side tomorrow. Their central defender Dias, however, will definitely miss this game.
Villas-Boas, the Tottenham coach, has not been neglecting the Europa League, fielding close to his best side in both their previous away games. The surprise is that Tottenham have not been able to defeat Maribor and Panathinaikos with both games ending in draws. 1X game, but a draw will do no harm to these two sides.

Metalist Kharkiv - Bayer Leverkusen 2.40 - 3.20

Great sides, both are unbeaten on ten points. Metalist managed a somewhat lucky 0-0 draw away to Bayer. I will make it easy for myself. Metalist, one of my favourite sides in Europe, will give more importance to this game than their German colleagues. I cannot be 100% certain, but in general sides from the East are more focused on matches like this one, rather meaning less group finals.
Now I am even more convinced. Six of the Bayer starters at the weekend will not take part in this game. Both their strikers A Schurrle and G Castro, their midfielders L Bender and S Rolfes and their two defenders Hosogai and Toprak will be rested and S Sam, Boenisch, Bellarabi and Schwaab will not be involved either. Backing Metalist.

Rosenborg - Rapid Vienna 1.85 - 5.31

The Norwegians demonstrated good morale at the week end winning 4-1 away from home in the league against a desperate bottom side. Rosenborg had nothing to play for.
J Chibuike will replace the injured R Prica in the Norwegian front line. Defender S Strandberg is a major injury doubt. Yes, nothing to play certainly describes this fixture, and it is the same situation for both sides. T Boyd, American international striker, is leading the Rapid offensive line, but that is about all I know about this Austrian side. You may as well back the better odds.

Helsingborg - Levante 3.58 - 2.20

Lack of international experience has cost Helsingborg so many points, it is almost a joke. Hannover scored injury time winning goals in both their games and Helsingborg were clearly the better side away to Levante, but they missed all their chances.
Levante will give a rest to quite a few of their regulars, but their season so far has been a success story and their confidence is sky high. O Martins, their leading goal scorer, is not allowed to play in Europe and Gekas, a possible replacement, is struggling with an injury. Could be that Angel will play as their lone striker.
Helsingborg will be doing their utmost to finally win a game in Europe, but tomorrow they have to manage without both their centre halfs Atta and P Larsson, both suspended. Makes me skip my bet on the home win.

Hannover - Twente 2.05 - 3.83

Quite lucky in their two encounters with the Swedish Helsingborg, but Hannover do not care, already qualified for the play offs. Twente cannot reach them, but they still have a slight chance of catching Levante. A win for Twente tomorrow and Levante losing to Helsingborg, then it is game on for Twente.
The Hannover coach will make changes for this game, but his intention is to field a winning side, whatever that means. Missing is their injured striker M Diouf.
Twente have been a disappointment in Europe this season and I get the feeling that success in the Europa League has not been very high on their priority list. Their best offensive player Chadli will once again be missing along with Cabral, Mihaylov, Landzaat and R Schilder. It will be like a friendly game for Hannover and then it is up to Twente to show determination and a will to win. Which I doubt. I expect an open game of football with goals from both parties.
Winners? I rest my case.

EUROPE: Europa League - Group Stage Prediction

Liverpool - Anzhi 2.30 - 3.30

Quite a game to look forward to. Anzhi are topping the Russian league after a most impressive campaign and can Liverpool afford to face Anzhi with their alternative side used this far in Europe? Yes, I think they will. Liverpool will face Everton in a few days time and no way that coach Rodgers will send out his best players tomorrow. Anzhi miss the injured L Diarra. Backing Eto’o and his Anzhi.

Young Boys - Udinese 2.63 - 2.76

Time for a win for the home side, or they have they already given up on success in Europe? Suffice to say that they have started poorly losing both their group games. 3-5 at home to the Liverpool youngsters/reserves was not the best of starts for the Swiss. Spycher and J Simpson are on their injury list. Their main danger man is Bobadilla.
The same Liverpool, a bit better at least on paper, were given a lesson at home to Udinese, with the Italians winning the match 3-2. The big Swede Ranegie will probably start upfront for Udinese probably supported by Lazzari and Fabbrini, meaning that Di Natale will not play from the start. Pinzi, Pasquale, Basta and Muriel are on their injury list. So could be that Udinese will start with a weaker line up than against Liverpool, but they have travelled with a very strong squad. Away win is more appealing to this writer.

Atletico Madrid - Academica 1.25 - 17.00

I take it for granted that Atletico will continue fielding a mixed side in Europe and I also take it almost for granted that they will be strong to win against this mediocre Portugese side. Yes, half a dozen A Madrid regulars, including Falcao will not be involved in this game. Should Academica defend for their lives maybe they can reach a draw against a rather unmotivated home side, but I do not think so.

Hapoel Tel Aviv - Victoria Plzen 2.95 - 2.50

My choice will be the away win. Plzen lost to a last minute goal away to A Madrid, while Hapoel went down 0-3 against A Madrid in Israel. In both these games A Madrid featured an alternative side. I do not expect an easy ride for Plzen in this match, but I quite often find myself backing this rather good Czech side and they rarely have let me down. They are a good side in with a chance in most games and this 2.50 is a decent price on the away win.

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Marseille 2.40 - 3.28

No doubt, Borussia are in a middle of a rather big crisis. The way they went down to Werder Bremen at the weekend (0-4) after some recent poor results certainly gives evidence of some kind of crisis.
Marseille I watched the other night. They lost to last placed Troyes and Marseille looked surprisingly devoid of ideas. There was no speed to their game, they lacked the necessary intensity and commitment and this surprised me. OK, maybe they did not deserve to lose, but I do not know, Troyes hit the wood work before their winning goal. Gignac is out injured for Marseille.
Struggling home team against a Marseille side on their way down in form. And the outcome? My choice will be the home win.

AEL Limassol - Fenerbahce 4.23 - 2.10

The home side seems to be in a mess and the away win is worth backing.
AEL, after a poor campaign, have just sacked their coach and a new one, a Portugese, is on his way of joining the club. Success in Europe is probably not first on his agenda and it will be difficult after their opening two group games.
Fenerbahce have a quite strong squad. They should do better, although their 4-2 away win against Borussia Möchengladbach was a great result. Important Raul Meireles will miss tomorrow’s match. Backing the away win.

Newcastle - Club Brugge 1.70 - 5.98

Will Newcastle send out a very strong side again? As I just pointed out their starting line up against Bordeaux was much stronger than I had expected. It looks like they will field a side as strong as against Bordeaux and then they should be able to defeat this Brugge side, a side playing with a much weakened defensive line at the moment. Very likely home winner.

Maritimo - Bordeaux 3.06 - 2.63

This Portugese side did not impress in their previous home game in this group. They were second best to the Newcastle reserves, but managed to draw the match 0-0. Bordeaux have shown us two faces this far. Superior at home to a weakened C Brugge side, but then more or less outclassed by a Newcastle side, a Newcastle side in much better shape than against Maritimo.
Bordeaux will be able to call on Henrique and Tremoulinas again for this match. They were suspended in the league. Missing will be Sane and Diabate. X2 game.

Steaua Bukarest - Molde 1.67 - 6.00

Molde were leading 1-0 away to Strömsgodset with only minutes to go at the weekend. Unfortunately for Molde the league leaders managed a late equaliser. Still the race is very much on and could be that their European campaign will suffer a bit. Once again I have to report that Molde will face Rosenborg in a few days and this Europa League fixture could be a bit overlooked by Solskjaer and his team. Not that Solskjaer accepts losing any football games.
Steaua have impressed and they will get my vote in this match, but the odds have been lowered too much these last few days.

Stuttgart - FC Copenhagen 1.62 - 6.02

Stuttgart definitely over their recent mini crisis, at least domestically. At the weekend they won deservedly away to Hamburg. Winless in Europe they need to win this match and they are very much aware of this. Defence man A Boka is out injured.
Copenhagen are enjoying a steady season. No real dips and no real heights this far and they will most likely go on to winning the Danish league title. They do not have the quality to match a Stuttgart side in form and that is the key issue here. I had no problems opposing Stuttgart away to Molde, but I have a distinct feeling that we are about to se a much better Stuttgart side in this match. The odds on the home win, however, are a joke.

P S V - A I K 1.21 - 15.46

Very much involved in the Swedish title race I do not think that AIK will take too many risks in Europe, now that they have lost their two group games. Definitely the home win.

Dnipro - Napoli 2.20 - 3.75

One thing is sure. Napoli have to play with a much stronger squad tomorrow than against PSV in their last group game, or they will have no chance against this rather strong Ukrainian side. I watched them away to Swedish AIK and Dnipro are strong and usually much better in their home fixtures.
Napoli have travelled with a strong squad basically only missing Hamsik and Maggio, but there is no guarantee that all their first choices will play from the start. I am closer to backing the home win.

Videoton - Basel 3.12 - 2.45

What I have seen this far this fixture is about coming second in this group after Genk. Basel, with their experienced squad on this European level, are favourites to advance to the play offs, but I would not bet on it. M Yakin, former Swiss international, is the new Basel coach. His first game in charge ended in defeat against Luzern 0-1. A Frei and Streller played upfront as usual and F Frei also played of course. Yakin is most eager to win tomorrow’s match to get his new career going
Videoton have offered some strong home displays winning comfortably against both Trabzonspor and Sporting Lisbon, but they are struggling in their domestic league, on seventh position. They lost to a Budapest team last week. Basel should be the stronger side, but I am not all convinced.

Genk - Sporting Lisbon 2.70 - 2.75

Backing the home win and surprisingly good odds. Genk are in quite good form and they seem to have a serious interest in the Europa League. Simaeys, Hyland, Joneleit and Kennedy remain on the sidelines.
Sporting are struggling big time and I am talking about their overall contributions this season. They do not seem to care about playing in Europe and they are close to the relegation zone in the Portugese league. At the weekend they lost again, this time to lowly Moreierense. Out injured are Carrico and Pereirinha. Genk to win.

Rubin Kazan - Neftchi 1.29 - 14.64

I will not say more about this fixture than about Rubin’s last home game, vs. Partizan. The Russians must be expected to defeat their Asian neighbours from Azerbaijan and then you do what you like with this 1.29 on the home win. Not for me.

Inter - Partizan Belgrade 1.36 - 10.35

It certainly looks like Inter are treating the Europa League with some respect. Their starting eleven away to Neftchi (3-1 win) was quite impressive. Players like Alvarez, Coutinho and Livaja will start tomorrow and Silvestre and Nagatomo will be back in their defence. I only miss Sneijder and Stankovic in their 21 man squad. Trusting Inter in these kinds of European games is out of the question for me, but I have no intention of making a case for Partizan either.

Sparta Prague - Hapoel KS 1.57 - 7.12

Home winner! Sparta had no problems defeating Atletic in their last home game prolonging their excellent results in their European home fixtures. Sorry, I have nothing really to say about this Israeli side, but sure enough Sparta will be the winners.

Lyon - Atletic Bilbao 1.94 - 4.50

You cannot do more than win your matches and that is what Lyon have achieved this far in Europe. They have not at all performed at their highest level, or there is no high level to talk about for Lyon this season.
A Bilbao are slowly getting better, but their results are certainly nothing to brag about. Still their latest domestic displays indicate a certain improvement , but so far we have not seen this in Europe. Bielsa has taken 20 players with him to France and only Inigo Perez is out injured at the moment.
I expect both these rather big sides to wake up tomorrow. I mean, Lyon are usually playing in the Champions League and Atletic Club played in the Europa league final last season.
Both teams on the score sheet, an over game in other words, but which side will win the match? I rest my case.

Panathinaikos - Lazio 3.20 - 2.40

Although Panathinaikos have been struggling this season they demonstrated good morale and some improved football at home to Tottenham. They were down 0-1 and looked out of the match, but picked themselves up and reached a deserved 1-1 draw.
Lazio have travelled with a strong squad to Greece, but which players will actually start the match? Remains to be seen. Lazio have a tricky away game against Fiorentina in the league in a few days time. Lazio will definitely be without their keeper Marchetti, Lulic and Ederson, but Radu will make his come back in this game. At most a draw is within reach for Lazio, at least in my opinion. 1X game.

Maribor - Tottenham 5.50 - 1.73

I am not saying that Maribor will be the winners here, but the home win looks overpriced. Maribor are as strong as Panathinaikos and what I know Tottenham could not defeat the Greeks a few weeks ago (1-1). Panathinaikos are a bigger club than Maribor, but we must not forget that Maribor were 3-0 winners at home to Panathinaikos. No Vidovic for Maribor.
Could be that G Bale, who did not play for Tottenham at the weekend, will play for Spurs in this game and that is not good news for Maribor. Something on the home win.

Rosenborg - Metalist Kharkiv 3.00 - 2.45

It is a battle on two fronts for Rosenborg. They are very much involved in the Norwegian title race, but they also want to succeed in Europe. Top priority? Winning the league, no doubt. They are injury free at the moment, but I do not think that they will be playing with their best side in this game. Why? They will face Molde this weekend, biggest game of the season for Rosenborg. Latest training session, however, indicates that Rosenborg will send out their strongest eleven tomorrow
This great Metalist side managed an impressive win in the Ukrainian league in their last league game defeating D Kiev away from home 3-1. Taison, Torres and Xavier were their scorers. No Russian names, but it is well known fact that South Americans are dominating their squad. It will be cold tomorrow, not a pleasant climate for South Americans, but I guess that they are used to freezing conditions. They are playing in Ukraine after all. I prefer the away win alternative.

Rapid Wien - Bayer Leverkusen 5.36 - 1.80

Two losses in this group for Rapid and how motivated will they be tomorrow, especially after their derby loss against Austria Wien at the weekend. Losing their previous home game in this group against Rosenborg was a hammer blow, while their loss vs. Metalist was nothing to moan about.
Bayer are a class act and they will most likely do enough to win this match. This they managed away to Rosenborg, with their winning goal coming late but deserved. Both their midfielders S Reinartz and S Sam are out of this match and they have travelled to Austria with only fifteen players. Likely away win.

Helsingborg - Hannover 4.31 - 1.95

Decent side this Swedish Helsingborg team. They could not hold on to their 2-0 lead at home to Twente, but they have the capacity to defeat teams like Hannover and Twente. Not when these respected European sides are playing their best football, but on days when they are slightly off key. Accam and Sörum, the Helsinborg forwards, started on the bench at the weekend. The Helsingborg squad is quite fit at the moment.
Hannover, down to ten men, found a way of defeating Levante in their last group game and I accept them as rather big favourites in this match. Tomorrow they will miss their two defenders Haggui and Felipe. Chr. Schulz could start. Hannover backable as 1.95 favourites? No, I do not think so.

Levante - Twente 2.40 - 3.23

Mission accomplished this weekend for Levante. That is what I think after their important late win against Getafe at the weekend. It was a terrible game of football, I must say. I have my doubts about their overall interest in the Europa League. They were pure lucky defeating Helsingborg in their previous home game and their Europa league side, 11 vs. 10 on the pitch, could not hold on to their 1-0 lead against Hannover. I said Europa League side, because they like to change things around for their European fixtures. O Martins will not play and D Navarro and Dudka will not feature either. There could be more changes.
Twente demonstrated will and morale when they fought back from 0-2 down away to Helsingborg. Chadli, their winger, ran the show. I just checked their squad and they have travelled with their best players. I prefer the away win.