Europa League - Group Stage Prediction 22/11/2012

Anzhi - Udinese 1.67 - 6.00

No sparkling Anzhi form lately and they are no longer topping the Russian league. They have drawn their last two league games. Too many games, I guess, both at home in Europe and all this travelling. They are coached by Hiddink so they are well organised in other words, sound defensively, but they are not scoring too many goals.
Losing twice to Young Boys has almost ended the Udinese hopes in Europe. They still have a chance though and Udinese have travelled with a 20 man squad including Di Natale. I would not call it their strongest squad, as some eight usual squad players have not joined the travelling party, but it is still a competitive squad. The odds on the home win are a joke. You could get 1.90 or something like that against the Liverpool reserves two weeks ago.

Liverpool - Young Boys 1.50 - 8.72

I was not the only one who thought Young Boys would defeat the Liverpool reserves in their first meeting but Liverpool won the match 5-3. Since then Young Boys have improved their game and they have this great sharp shooter Bobadilla in their squad. Their keeper Wölfli is a doubt for this game.
Maybe Liverpool will have a slightly stronger starting line up tomorrow than they fielded away to Anzhi, but we can definitely talk about an alternative side. A side that coach Rodgers expects to do the job, winning tomorrow and reaching the play offs. I would never dream of backing this 1.50 on the home win. No bet game, or something on the Swiss.

Atletico Madrid - Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.17 - 20.02

1.17 on the Madrid reserves can never be a useful price and it does not matter if they are playing against a Hapoel side without any kind of qualifying chances.

Academica - V Plzen 2.70 - 2.85

It does not look too good for Academica, but their home win against the Atletico reserves gives the Portugese some slender hope of reaching the next phase. They have to defeat this strong Plzen side, revenging their 1-3 loss in the Czech Republic. Plzen are not easily beaten and I do not think that Academica will be the winners here.

Borussia Mönchengladbach - AEL Limassol 1.35 - 11.33

Must win game for Borussia, if they plan to reach the play offs and nothing, nothing at all at stake for AEL. Conclusion, the rather obvious one, the home win.

Marseille - Fenerbahce 1.84 - 5.20

Maybe it will prove decisive for Marseille conceding an injury time equaliser in their last match, at home to close rivals Borussia. Then again they were 0-2 down away to this Fenerbahce side, but managed to draw the match. A Ayew will be back to play for the home side, but they risk being without their best offensive player Valbuena.
Fenerbahce have been in impressive form in this group despite their somewhat disappointing home draw with Marseille. Fenerbahce scored four goals away to Borussia and I just have to back the great odds on the away win.

Newcastle - Maritimo 1.45 - 9.00

It is certainly true that Newcastle are going through a lean spell domestically, but so far they have lived up to expectations in Europe, unbeaten this far. No Cabaye, but both Coloccini and Papiss Cisse should be back in contention. I expect Newcastle to pick up their three pointer against this mediocre Portugese side.

Club Brugge - Bordeaux 2.70 - 2.75

It is heaven or hell for Brugge. First they lost to Anderlecht 1-6 and next week they outclassed a bottom side 6-2. In this group they were 2-0 up against Newcastle in their last game, but they could not hold on to their lead (2-2). They have a new coach, Garrido, former Villarreal coach, and he will hopefully lead this traditionally strong Belgian team to better, more normal times. He won his first game in charge, the above mentioned 6-2 victory.
Bordeaux won their massive home game against Marseille and this weekend it is time for another tough league game, at Montpellier. They may suffer tomorrow. Bordeaux will finish this group at home to Newcastle, a Newcastle side most likely already safe and they may slightly overlook tomorrow’s game. In form duo Gouffran and Obraniak will be rested tomorrow. I am closer to backing the home win.

Steaua Bukarest - Stuttgart 3.06 - 2.60

Great European campaign from the Romanian league leaders. Unbeaten this far in this group and their only dropped points were away to this Stuttgart side (2-2).
The Stuttgart form was poor at that moment, but they have improved immensely lately and that is why the bookies have made them close favourites in this game. Stuttgart are in grave danger of missing both their central defenders Tasci and Niedermeier tomorrow. Big blow of course. One can absolutely say that Stuttgart have more to play for, but I do not believe this. Surely Steaua would love to defeat a strong German side like Stuttgart. 1X game.

Molde - FC Copenhagen 2.50 - 3.03

Sandnes, a Norwegian club, needed not worry. Molde, already league winners, did their job at the weekend defeating Fredrikstad 2-0. In other words Molde are still competing and they are motivated favourites in this match.
Copenhagen defeated Molde 2-1 in Denmark, but facing Molde in Norway is something else. Molde are a terrific home side and their recent loss against Steaua had a lot to do with their league campaign.
Copenhagen are of course a very strong side on the Scandinavian market, probably the best, but I would not say that they are stronger than Molde at this very moment. I talk too much. Tricky as hell, but I prefer the home win.

PSV Eindhoven - Dnipro 1.75 - 5.50

It will probably be a stronger PSV side tomorrow than against AIK two weeks ago. J Lens, K Stootman and Van Bommel were all back playing for PSV at the weekend and I took it for granted that they should be involved in this must win game for PSV. Now it is not certain at all with coach Advocaat giving priority to their domestic league.
Dnipro can face this match in a rather relaxed mood well aware they have an “easy” home game against AIK next. There are always plenty of goals scored when Dnipro are playing and this match has the look of an over game. To back PSV I have to see their starting line up.

A I K - Napoli 4.70 - 1.80

Strange game down in Neapel when AIK lost the match. Napoli used their four scoring chances to maximum, while AIK wasted numerous open chances. AIK are a decent side demonstrated in their last group game, winning 1-0 against PSV. The AIK defence gave a good account of themselves.
Napoli do not look trustworthy at the moment and in my opinion they are too Cavani dependant for their own good. He scored all their goals at home to Dnipro two weeks ago. They say he will start tomorrow alongside Edu Vargas with Dzemali backing up the front duo. Behrami is back from his suspension and in defence Campagnaro will join Britos and Aronica.
Too bad for AIK, it is not even cold in Stockholm at the moment, but their pitch will be a mild shock for the Napoli players. OK, Cavani playing from the start stops me from backing the home win.

Videoton - Genk 2.61 - 2.79

This Hungarian side, coached by P Sousa, have won their two home games and thanks to their home strength they have a decent chance of reaching the play offs. They have to win this game, or they will come short.
Genk have been rather impeccable so far winning their home games and drawing their two away fixtures. Their last gasp equaliser against Sporting was a real morale booster for the Belgians. Videoton have not lost a home game in Europe for ages and they have to be backed in this, one of their most important games ever.

Basel - Sporting Lisbon 2.14 - 3.90

It looks like Basel are slowly improving under new coach Yakin. They reach better results on the domestic front, but they could only defeat Videoton 1-0 in their last group game. They dominated the match and the 0-1 loss was a flattering result for Videoton.
Sporting defeated Braga 1-0 in their last league game with Van Wolfswinkel scoring an early goal. I can imagine that the win was a most welcome one for their coach after some questionable displays. Sporting, down to ten men, conceded a last minute equaliser in their last group game, at home to Genk and their chances of qualifying are slim. Midfielder S Schaars will be suspended tomorrow. I would pick the home win alternative.

Rubin Kazan - Inter 2.36 - 3.92

Both are of course through to the next round. They have been in a class of their own in their group with Inter having fielded much stronger sides than I would have guessed. They have so many good players and even their second choices form a good side, but players like Palacio and Cassano have also taken part in their Europa League games. According to their web site there will be a massive turnover for this cup game. Cassano, Milito, Cambiasso, Samuel, Nagatomo and Handanovic have not made the journey to Russia.
Rubin drew 2-2 in Milan and in my mind there is no doubt that Rubin will be the more motivated side in this game. Rubin are a good side, strong at their own place and they will get my vote this time.

Neftchi - Partizan Belgrade 2.65 - 2.85

Just guessing here. In this match of little importance my gut feeling tells me that it is a bigger achievement for this Azerbaijan side to finish ahead of D Zagreb in the group than the other way around. First encounter between these two teams finished 0-0. Home win will be my guess.

Sparta Prague - Lyon 2.40 - 3.64

On maximum twelve points and their last group game at home to Hapoel I do not think that Lyon will give much importance to this game in Prague. They have one important match this week and it is not this one. It is on Sunday away to Toulouse. Players like Bisevac, Malbranque, Mvuemba, Lacazette, Lovren, Gomis, Briand and Bastos will not be involved in this game. Without trembling much I will back Sparta, one of the stronger home teams in Europe.

Hapoel KS - Athletic Bilbao 4.60 - 2.01

The game has been postponed. Too bad. A Bilbao had decided to play with only two,three regulars and the obvious choice here would be backing the home win.

Panathinaikos - Maribor 2.06 - 4.37

Panathinaikos are not enjoying the best of season but they have not lost any of their previous home games in this group. They were 0-1 down against both Lazio and Tottenham, but fought back in the second half of these games. In other words they have not stopped trying despite these testing times. Their coach left his job a week ago.
A win tomorrow for Maribor and they are in with a chance of qualifying for the next round. Backing the more motivated side, Maribor.

Lazio - Tottenham 2.45 - 3.25

I should think that both Mauri and Lulic, suspended at the weekend, will be back for the home side. Lazio played a highly competitive game against Juventus (0-0), but Lazio are lucky. They are not playing a Serie A game this weekend and they will play with their strongest side tomorrow. Their central defender Dias, however, will definitely miss this game.
Villas-Boas, the Tottenham coach, has not been neglecting the Europa League, fielding close to his best side in both their previous away games. The surprise is that Tottenham have not been able to defeat Maribor and Panathinaikos with both games ending in draws. 1X game, but a draw will do no harm to these two sides.

Metalist Kharkiv - Bayer Leverkusen 2.40 - 3.20

Great sides, both are unbeaten on ten points. Metalist managed a somewhat lucky 0-0 draw away to Bayer. I will make it easy for myself. Metalist, one of my favourite sides in Europe, will give more importance to this game than their German colleagues. I cannot be 100% certain, but in general sides from the East are more focused on matches like this one, rather meaning less group finals.
Now I am even more convinced. Six of the Bayer starters at the weekend will not take part in this game. Both their strikers A Schurrle and G Castro, their midfielders L Bender and S Rolfes and their two defenders Hosogai and Toprak will be rested and S Sam, Boenisch, Bellarabi and Schwaab will not be involved either. Backing Metalist.

Rosenborg - Rapid Vienna 1.85 - 5.31

The Norwegians demonstrated good morale at the week end winning 4-1 away from home in the league against a desperate bottom side. Rosenborg had nothing to play for.
J Chibuike will replace the injured R Prica in the Norwegian front line. Defender S Strandberg is a major injury doubt. Yes, nothing to play certainly describes this fixture, and it is the same situation for both sides. T Boyd, American international striker, is leading the Rapid offensive line, but that is about all I know about this Austrian side. You may as well back the better odds.

Helsingborg - Levante 3.58 - 2.20

Lack of international experience has cost Helsingborg so many points, it is almost a joke. Hannover scored injury time winning goals in both their games and Helsingborg were clearly the better side away to Levante, but they missed all their chances.
Levante will give a rest to quite a few of their regulars, but their season so far has been a success story and their confidence is sky high. O Martins, their leading goal scorer, is not allowed to play in Europe and Gekas, a possible replacement, is struggling with an injury. Could be that Angel will play as their lone striker.
Helsingborg will be doing their utmost to finally win a game in Europe, but tomorrow they have to manage without both their centre halfs Atta and P Larsson, both suspended. Makes me skip my bet on the home win.

Hannover - Twente 2.05 - 3.83

Quite lucky in their two encounters with the Swedish Helsingborg, but Hannover do not care, already qualified for the play offs. Twente cannot reach them, but they still have a slight chance of catching Levante. A win for Twente tomorrow and Levante losing to Helsingborg, then it is game on for Twente.
The Hannover coach will make changes for this game, but his intention is to field a winning side, whatever that means. Missing is their injured striker M Diouf.
Twente have been a disappointment in Europe this season and I get the feeling that success in the Europa League has not been very high on their priority list. Their best offensive player Chadli will once again be missing along with Cabral, Mihaylov, Landzaat and R Schilder. It will be like a friendly game for Hannover and then it is up to Twente to show determination and a will to win. Which I doubt. I expect an open game of football with goals from both parties.
Winners? I rest my case.

Football picks 17/10/2012

Poland - England 4.42 - 2.00

Obraniak will be back in contention for the home side, but they will face this game without their captain Blaszczykowski. The B Dortmund midfielder is injured and his midfield colleague Polanski will also be missing. England will welcome back a host of players for this match. S Gerrard, G Johnson, J Defoe, J Lescott, A Cole and J Milner will all be available again, but T Walcott and F Lampard will not take part in this fixture. Poland were poor in their own EURO tornament, but they have a new coach these days and I should not be talking about Smuda’s Poland any more. I thought that Poland would lose away to Montenegro, but they managed a deserved 2-2 draw. X2 game, this one.

Football picks 16/10/12 World Cup Qualification

Belarus - Georgia 2.15 - 4.00

Will it continue like this for Belarus? They have lost their three qualifying games, but at the same time their leading club Bate Borisov are excelling in the Champions League. How come? Losing away to France and losing at home to Spain look like normal results and their slender 0-1 loss away to Georgia was not much of an upset either and in reality nothing really strange has taken place. A Hleb was back for Belarus at home to Spain, but he could not stop the champions from winning the match 4-0. Georgia drew 1-1 away to ten man Finland in their recent qualifier. Before that they barely lost their home qualifier against Spain 0-1, with Spain scoring their goal late in the game. All well so far for Georgia, but I expect them to be on the losing side tomorrow. Likely home winner.

Spain - France 1.55 - 8.43

Banker as well? Well, there is this old respect for “les Bleus”, the French national side, but I have no major argument for any result but the home win. Pedro scored a hat trick for Spain last week in Minsk with Spain winning the match 4-0. Suffice it to say that Spain look close to unbeatable. Cabaye will be back on the French midfield for this match, Ribery will also return and Evra will most likely start in their defence again. All three were rested in a recent friendly game. Chantome, Diaby and Mavuba are on their injury list. Benzema from the start? Likely home winner, but I do not feel good about the odds.

Faroe Islands - Republic of Ireland 13.71 - 1.29

Why not the home win! Faroe Islands were on their way of defeating Sweden last week, but changing a couple of faces in the second half made it possible for Hamren’s Sweden to turn the game, winning the match 2-1. A certain Kacaniklic, playing for Fulham, made the difference. Anyway the Faroes are better than people like to think, especially on their own plastic turf. Eire were embarassed in front of 50.000 of their own fans by Germany 1-6 and this result only cemented my firm belief that they were by far the poorest side in the EURO tournament. Some positive piece of news for the Irish. Robbie Keane has travelled with the squad to the Islands. Backing the home win.

Slovakia - Greece 2.50 - 3.25

Tricky as hell this one! I do not really know where to place this Slovakian side. Are they totally Hamsik dependant, or what? Bakos and Holosko, their two strikers, are not going through the best of times. So far Slovakia have not done anything remarkable in this group, while Greece belong to the category of hard to beat sides. V Weiss has been declared fit to play for the home side and Greece will miss their suspended defender Malezas. The draw? OK!

Cyprus - Norway 4.57 - 1.95

According to reports it was a very much improved Norwegian side that deservedly managed a draw against the Swiss. Norway could have won the match, hitting the wood work late on in the game. Drillo’s team played smart defensive football and their dead ball situations caused problems for the home side. For this match they have to manage without their suspended midfielder H Nortveit. One of Hauger, Henriksen or Wolff Ekrem will be his replacement. Aloneftis, the Apoel winger, made a strong impression coming on as a second half substitute for Cyprus against Slovenia. (1-2 loss) He scored the Cypriotic goal and Cesar, the Slovenian defender, was red carded trying to stop Aloneftis. I should probably say something about the Cypriotic home strength, but I am not 100% certain that this is the case for this Cypriotic national side. Their leading clubs, yes. Still 4.57 is a big price, is it not?, but I will not back the home win.

Iceland - Switzerland 4.70 - 1.88

I do not know if it was the torrential rain, the soggy pitch, but fact is that Iceland deservedly defeated Albania in Tirana. Maybe it was almost like playing at home. This Icelandic side, coached by the experienced Lagerbäck, is probably their best ever, but I could not see them winning against Albania. Well organised, for sure, but there also some great individuals in their squad. The Tottenham midfielder Sigurdsson of course, captain Gunnarsson and my own favourite, their striker Finnbogasson. Unfortunately for Iceland the ever present, the all important A Gunnarsson will be suspended for this match. His midfield colleague H Danielsson will not be available either, but defence man S Ottesen will be back from his suspension. The Swiss passed the ball round with confidence at home to Norway, but they had constant problems dealing with the Norwegian long balls. Rather typical that the Fulham defender Hangeland scored the Norwegian goal from a corner. Football fever in Iceland? I should think so and there is every reason for the Swiss to tremble, should it be a cold and rainy evening tomorrow. Under normal circumstances I expect Switzerland to return home with the three points.

Albania - Slovenia 3.30 - 2.39

Should really Slovenia be the favourites? I do not think so. That is all I have to say, but I should perhaps mention that Slovenia will be without their suspended defender Cesar.

Ukraine - Montenegro 1.80 - 5.33

It was one way traffic for Ukraine away to Moldova. They dominated the match, but at the end of the day match the match ended in a score less draw. Their 1-1 draw away to England was a much better result, was it not? For Montengro Pavicevic will be back for his suspension. Vukinic and Jovetic will hopefully decide this match in favour of the Montenegrins. The outcome? Just think that the home win is underpriced.

Poland - England 4.42 - 2.00

Obraniak will be back in contention for the home side, but they will face this game without their captain Blaszczykowski. The B Dortmund midfielder is injured and his midfield colleague Polanski will also be missing. England will welcome back a host of players for this match. S Gerrard, G Johnson, J Defoe, J Lescott, A Cole and J Milner will all be available again, but T Walcott and F Lampard will not take part in this fixture. Poland were poor in their own EURO tornament, but they have a new coach these days and I should not be talking about Smuda’s Poland any more. I thought that Poland would lose away to Montenegro, but they managed a deserved 2-2 draw. X2 game, this one.

Macedonia - Serbia 4.00 - 2.12

Is not the home win over priced? Macedonia lost an evenly matched affair against Croatia (1-2) and surely Croatia are stronger than this Serbian side. I cannot really see Macedonia losing two home games in a week, but I am aware, this is not a very scientific approach. Serbia missed their chances in the first half against Belgium and this proved costly with Belgium in total control in the second half of the game. What can I say! Serbia look a bit wanting offensively, but alas, so does this Macedonian side. Their ace G Pandev will not play tomorrow and this piece of news makes it difficult to actually back the home win. Subotic could start in the Serbian defence, maybe Matic on their midfield. I have to skip this match from a betting perspective..

Italy - Denmark 1.53 - 8.05

In trouble every so often, but Italy have this great habit of winning almost all of their qualifying games. This was the case against Armenia, but at the end of the day Italy won the tricky away game 3-1. Buffon risks losing this match and in that case De Sanctis will be his replacement. Chiellini will start in their defence with his work singled out – stop Bendtner from scoring! Balotelli could be ready, or El Shaarawy will replace Giovinco alongside Osvaldo. Abate will most likely come in for Maggio in defence. The Danish forward A Cornelius will be suspended for this game and Jörgensen is out injured. The Danes have yet to perform at their highest level and they should have done better against ten man Bulgaria last week. (1-1) Depressing odds on the home win, that is all I know.

Czech Republic - Bulgaria 1.70 - 6.00

So Bulgaria have to play an away fixture after three home games on the bounce. Popov and Rangelow started upfront at home to Denmark, but it turned out to be a strange game, as Bulgaria had to play with ten men for an hour or so. This Bandalovski fellow will be suspended tomorrow. The Bulgarian offence does not impress me, but I could say the same about the Czech artillery. Still I expect the Czechs to win this match, or the 0-0 draw will be the result.

Romania - Netherlands 5.00 - 1.81

Three group games played and Romania have yet to concede a single goal. OK, winning against Estonia and Andorra was nothing special, but their win away to Turkey last week is a strong result every day of the week. Fantastic defence? Not really, R Rat is old, but still great, but the WBA defence man G Tamas is not even a regular for his club, Bourceanu a real fighter and so on. This will be the real test against Van Persie and his colleagues. Could be that the Romanian coach will make a couple of changes for this match. He is talking about exhausted players. Mutu could come in for Grozav, Chipciu could replace Stancu and so on. Van Persie, by the way, was rested at the week end, but he will be back playing upfront for Holland. Sneijder and Robben are sidelined at the moment. The Dutch have so many strong players, but Sneijder is always missed. I prefer the away win.

Hungary - Turkey 2.75 - 2.80

Yes, it certainly looks like Hungary no longer are the typical home side. Their win away to Estonia was their second away win on the trot. Turkey are struggling big time after yet another loss in a qualifying game. They looked quite toothless at home to Romania and I guess that their coach is hanging on the ropes. My intention was to back the home win, but with both Dzsudzsak and Juhasz suspended for Hungary I will stay away from this bet. Defence man Gokhan Gonul and M Topal are new on the Turkish injury list. No Yilmaz, no A Turan either. Turkey have to go for the three points, Hungary always play attacking football in their home games and my conclusion will be: over game!