Belarus - Georgia 2.15 - 4.00
Will it continue like this for Belarus? They have lost their three qualifying games, but at the same time their leading club Bate Borisov are excelling in the Champions League. How come? Losing away to France and losing at home to Spain look like normal results and their slender 0-1 loss away to Georgia was not much of an upset either and in reality nothing really strange has taken place. A Hleb was back for Belarus at home to Spain, but he could not stop the champions from winning the match 4-0. Georgia drew 1-1 away to ten man Finland in their recent qualifier. Before that they barely lost their home qualifier against Spain 0-1, with Spain scoring their goal late in the game. All well so far for Georgia, but I expect them to be on the losing side tomorrow. Likely home winner.
Spain - France 1.55 - 8.43
Banker as well? Well, there is this old respect for “les Bleus”, the French national side, but I have no major argument for any result but the home win. Pedro scored a hat trick for Spain last week in Minsk with Spain winning the match 4-0. Suffice it to say that Spain look close to unbeatable. Cabaye will be back on the French midfield for this match, Ribery will also return and Evra will most likely start in their defence again. All three were rested in a recent friendly game. Chantome, Diaby and Mavuba are on their injury list. Benzema from the start? Likely home winner, but I do not feel good about the odds.
Faroe Islands - Republic of Ireland 13.71 - 1.29
Why not the home win! Faroe Islands were on their way of defeating Sweden last week, but changing a couple of faces in the second half made it possible for Hamren’s Sweden to turn the game, winning the match 2-1. A certain Kacaniklic, playing for Fulham, made the difference. Anyway the Faroes are better than people like to think, especially on their own plastic turf. Eire were embarassed in front of 50.000 of their own fans by Germany 1-6 and this result only cemented my firm belief that they were by far the poorest side in the EURO tournament. Some positive piece of news for the Irish. Robbie Keane has travelled with the squad to the Islands. Backing the home win.
Slovakia - Greece 2.50 - 3.25
Tricky as hell this one! I do not really know where to place this Slovakian side. Are they totally Hamsik dependant, or what? Bakos and Holosko, their two strikers, are not going through the best of times. So far Slovakia have not done anything remarkable in this group, while Greece belong to the category of hard to beat sides. V Weiss has been declared fit to play for the home side and Greece will miss their suspended defender Malezas. The draw? OK!
Cyprus - Norway 4.57 - 1.95
According to reports it was a very much improved Norwegian side that deservedly managed a draw against the Swiss. Norway could have won the match, hitting the wood work late on in the game. Drillo’s team played smart defensive football and their dead ball situations caused problems for the home side. For this match they have to manage without their suspended midfielder H Nortveit. One of Hauger, Henriksen or Wolff Ekrem will be his replacement. Aloneftis, the Apoel winger, made a strong impression coming on as a second half substitute for Cyprus against Slovenia. (1-2 loss) He scored the Cypriotic goal and Cesar, the Slovenian defender, was red carded trying to stop Aloneftis. I should probably say something about the Cypriotic home strength, but I am not 100% certain that this is the case for this Cypriotic national side. Their leading clubs, yes. Still 4.57 is a big price, is it not?, but I will not back the home win.
Iceland - Switzerland 4.70 - 1.88
I do not know if it was the torrential rain, the soggy pitch, but fact is that Iceland deservedly defeated Albania in Tirana. Maybe it was almost like playing at home. This Icelandic side, coached by the experienced Lagerbäck, is probably their best ever, but I could not see them winning against Albania. Well organised, for sure, but there also some great individuals in their squad. The Tottenham midfielder Sigurdsson of course, captain Gunnarsson and my own favourite, their striker Finnbogasson. Unfortunately for Iceland the ever present, the all important A Gunnarsson will be suspended for this match. His midfield colleague H Danielsson will not be available either, but defence man S Ottesen will be back from his suspension. The Swiss passed the ball round with confidence at home to Norway, but they had constant problems dealing with the Norwegian long balls. Rather typical that the Fulham defender Hangeland scored the Norwegian goal from a corner. Football fever in Iceland? I should think so and there is every reason for the Swiss to tremble, should it be a cold and rainy evening tomorrow. Under normal circumstances I expect Switzerland to return home with the three points.
Albania - Slovenia 3.30 - 2.39
Should really Slovenia be the favourites? I do not think so. That is all I have to say, but I should perhaps mention that Slovenia will be without their suspended defender Cesar.
Ukraine - Montenegro 1.80 - 5.33
It was one way traffic for Ukraine away to Moldova. They dominated the match, but at the end of the day match the match ended in a score less draw. Their 1-1 draw away to England was a much better result, was it not? For Montengro Pavicevic will be back for his suspension. Vukinic and Jovetic will hopefully decide this match in favour of the Montenegrins. The outcome? Just think that the home win is underpriced.
Poland - England 4.42 - 2.00
Obraniak will be back in contention for the home side, but they will face this game without their captain Blaszczykowski. The B Dortmund midfielder is injured and his midfield colleague Polanski will also be missing. England will welcome back a host of players for this match. S Gerrard, G Johnson, J Defoe, J Lescott, A Cole and J Milner will all be available again, but T Walcott and F Lampard will not take part in this fixture. Poland were poor in their own EURO tornament, but they have a new coach these days and I should not be talking about Smuda’s Poland any more. I thought that Poland would lose away to Montenegro, but they managed a deserved 2-2 draw. X2 game, this one.
Macedonia - Serbia 4.00 - 2.12
Is not the home win over priced? Macedonia lost an evenly matched affair against Croatia (1-2) and surely Croatia are stronger than this Serbian side. I cannot really see Macedonia losing two home games in a week, but I am aware, this is not a very scientific approach. Serbia missed their chances in the first half against Belgium and this proved costly with Belgium in total control in the second half of the game. What can I say! Serbia look a bit wanting offensively, but alas, so does this Macedonian side. Their ace G Pandev will not play tomorrow and this piece of news makes it difficult to actually back the home win. Subotic could start in the Serbian defence, maybe Matic on their midfield. I have to skip this match from a betting perspective..
Italy - Denmark 1.53 - 8.05
In trouble every so often, but Italy have this great habit of winning almost all of their qualifying games. This was the case against Armenia, but at the end of the day Italy won the tricky away game 3-1. Buffon risks losing this match and in that case De Sanctis will be his replacement. Chiellini will start in their defence with his work singled out – stop Bendtner from scoring! Balotelli could be ready, or El Shaarawy will replace Giovinco alongside Osvaldo. Abate will most likely come in for Maggio in defence. The Danish forward A Cornelius will be suspended for this game and Jörgensen is out injured. The Danes have yet to perform at their highest level and they should have done better against ten man Bulgaria last week. (1-1) Depressing odds on the home win, that is all I know.
Czech Republic - Bulgaria 1.70 - 6.00
So Bulgaria have to play an away fixture after three home games on the bounce. Popov and Rangelow started upfront at home to Denmark, but it turned out to be a strange game, as Bulgaria had to play with ten men for an hour or so. This Bandalovski fellow will be suspended tomorrow. The Bulgarian offence does not impress me, but I could say the same about the Czech artillery. Still I expect the Czechs to win this match, or the 0-0 draw will be the result.
Romania - Netherlands 5.00 - 1.81
Three group games played and Romania have yet to concede a single goal. OK, winning against Estonia and Andorra was nothing special, but their win away to Turkey last week is a strong result every day of the week. Fantastic defence? Not really, R Rat is old, but still great, but the WBA defence man G Tamas is not even a regular for his club, Bourceanu a real fighter and so on. This will be the real test against Van Persie and his colleagues. Could be that the Romanian coach will make a couple of changes for this match. He is talking about exhausted players. Mutu could come in for Grozav, Chipciu could replace Stancu and so on. Van Persie, by the way, was rested at the week end, but he will be back playing upfront for Holland. Sneijder and Robben are sidelined at the moment. The Dutch have so many strong players, but Sneijder is always missed. I prefer the away win.
Hungary - Turkey 2.75 - 2.80
Yes, it certainly looks like Hungary no longer are the typical home side. Their win away to Estonia was their second away win on the trot. Turkey are struggling big time after yet another loss in a qualifying game. They looked quite toothless at home to Romania and I guess that their coach is hanging on the ropes. My intention was to back the home win, but with both Dzsudzsak and Juhasz suspended for Hungary I will stay away from this bet. Defence man Gokhan Gonul and M Topal are new on the Turkish injury list. No Yilmaz, no A Turan either. Turkey have to go for the three points, Hungary always play attacking football in their home games and my conclusion will be: over game!
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