Champions League - Group Stage 21/11/2012

Arsenal - Monpellier 1.35 - 11.00

This French side lacks international experience and that is probably why they ended up losing both their games against Olympiakos. Over the two legs Montpellier were probably the stronger side, but alas, no points. The Montpellier domestic form has improved lately and they will face this game in a positive frame of mind. They have nothing to lose with no expectations on their shoulders. Camara, forward, will be suspended for the French.
Arsenal certainly knew how to take advantage of the Adebayor dismissal at the weekend. They looked to be in all kinds of trouble before the Adebayor incident, but after that it was plain sailing for Arsenal and they won the match rather impressively 5-2. K Gibbs and Gervinho will return to the Arsenal squad for this game, but T Walcott will not play tomorrow. Arsenal will face this match in a rather confident mood, I guess, but 1.35 on the home win represents no value for me.

Porto - Dinamo Zagreb 1.17 - 27.00

Not much to say really. Zagreb just do not seem to function in Europe and facing Porto in Portugal is one of the trickiest tasks there is, for stronger sides than Zagreb. Fermando and Alex Sandro will most likely miss out for the home side.

Dynamo Kiev - P S G 3.00 - 2.63

Those were the easy days for PSG, when they won 4-1 at home to this Dynamo Kiev side. The PSG campaign is in a very critical phase, but so far their crisis only takes place on their domestic front. They have played against Dinamo Zagreb twice in this group and there is no way to know if they have gone down in form also in Europe. I would think so, but we will see first tomorrow. Ibrahimovic will be back tomorrow. With him lined up PSG improve immensely and the important Motta will also be fit to play. Menez, Gameriro and Jallet will not be involved.
Kiev look set to be without Raffael, Michalik and N Kranjcar and I Brown is an injury doubt.Kiev drew 0-0 in their recent home game against Porto and I should think that also PSG would be happy returning home with a point from their visit to Ukraine. X2 game.

Schalke 04 - Olympiakos 1.45 - 8.43

In Greece Schalke missed a penalty, but at the end of the day they deservedly defeated Olympiakos 2-1. They are the better side in general, no doubt about that, but there is something about this Olympiakos side in their European fixtures. You cannot deny their overall experience on this level and they have caused upsets in Europe once or twice before. They do not fear strong sides. Last year they defeated Borussia Dortmund 3-1 in Greece and only lost 0-1 away to the same side.
So just a bit of a warning is in order, but like most people I guess this match will end in a home win. Scahlke, however, played their season worst game at the weekend, at least according to reports. I Afellay has joined Uchida, Metzelder and M Höger on the Schalke injury list.
What I know, still no Djebbour for Olympiakos. In their last league game Mitroglou played upfront flanked by Abdoun and Fuster. Schalke, likely winners, but I will pass on this fixture.

Zenit - Malaga 1.92 - 4.73

I guess I will end up backing this constantly underachieving Zenit side again. Underachieving in Europe that is, because they have won their last six domestic league games. They will miss Criscito and Lukovic tomorrow, but both N Lombaerts and Hulk will be available. Bystrov is considered a major doubt.
Malaga are already through to the play off phase and they will rest regulars tomorrow. Saviola, Joaquin and Kameni have not even made the journey to Russia. Their domestic form is far from great and they have a big home game awaiting them on Sunday vs. Valencia. Also missing will be the suspended Iturra. Zenit should win this one.

Anderlecht - Milan 2.90 - 2.61

The Belgian league leaders are on a winning run, although their winning goal arrived very late at the weekend, scored by M’bokani in the 90th minute against Kortrijk. Not so impressive I guess, but no doubt Anderlecht already had this game on their minds. Once again the home side will be without the suspended Wasilewski.
Milan were 0-2 down against Napoli, but it was against the run of the play. It was their keeper Abbiati who gifted Napoli their two goals. That is Abbiati, the best or the worst, nothing in between. Milan fought back, El Shaarawy scored twice and Milan earned a deserved point. It is a sign of strength coming back from 0-2 down away to Napoli. Tricky one, but I prefer the away win alternative.

Ajax - Borussia Dortmund 4.33 - 2.00

The home side is hopeful that both their defender Alderweireld and keeper K Vermeer will be back for this game, but they have to manage without their injured striker R Babel. Boerrigter and Chr.Eriksen will most likely start upfront, but who will be their third man?
Lewandowski is back, both playing and scoring for his Dortmund side.
Borussia won 1-0 at home to Ajax thanks to a very late Lewandowski goal. They missed a penalty, they squandered numerous scoring chances, but Ajax were far from outplayed dominating the ball possession in true Ajax fashion. I am not impressed by the present Ajax strike force and my choice will be the away win.

Manchester City - Real Madrid 3.36 - 2.35

Must be the first time Mancini’s City are outsiders in a home fixture. You may say what you like, but backing the home win is inevitable for this writer. I just have to take advantage of the favourable odds. They can do it, they can defeat Real. They were 2-1 up at the Bernabeu Stadium in the second half, but Real won the match 3-2. City are probably in their best form of the season and then we will see if their European anguish will still linger on tomorrow.
Both Benzema and Khedira were back playing for Real at the weekend, but they go on missing players like Higuain and Marcelo. Real just look great and this match have everything that makes me believe that we are about to witness a truly great game tomorrow. City have to win this match and Real, they are always going for the three points. Home win, say 4-3 or 3-2. Yes, I am serious, but maybe not right.

EUROPE : Champions League - Group Stage

Chelsea - Shaktar Donetsk 2.06 - 4.00

Both J Mata and D Luiz are expected back for Chelsea and then we will see if J Terry will play or not. I think he will play. Last season Chelsea found themselves in a similar situation like this one. They had lost down in Naples 1-3, but could defeat Napoli 4-1 in the return leg. This game against Shaktar is of course just a group game, but you sense that Chelsea have to win this match, or they can probably forget about advancing to the play offs.
Can they match the Shaktar speed? Not really and there is the big problem, in my opinion.
This fixture can turn out to be one the classical games in Europe. To stop Shaktar from scoring is close to impossible and Chelsea have to score two goals, maybe three, to be the winners here? Will they do it? I have my doubts.

Celtic - Barcelona 11.30 - 1.35

Will the Celtic players be able to play the same kind of disciplined, defensive game at the Celtic Park as they managed at the Camp Nou Stadium? Well, they have to, or they will be punished severely. Barca will miss Adriano and Busquets tomorrow, but G Pique is back in their squad. Dani Alves is also available again.
Celtic hope to have both G Samaras and G Hooper back tomorrow, but their Norwegian T Rogne, Izaguirre and J Forrest are in grave danger of missing this game.
Barcelona are definitely not desperate for points at the moment, but playing a friendly game or not, they usually are scoring their three-four customary goals. So this game will probably end the same way as it usually does, with Barcelona winning it.

Braga - Manchester Utd 3.50 - 2.31

United have not been in convincing form in Europe this far but facts remain, they are on maximum nine points after three rounds of group football. Coach Ferguson would want to make their qualifying safe as soon as possible, looking for a positive result in Portugal. To win away to Braga Ferguson has to send out his best players, or that is what I think anyway.
Braga were 2-0 up at Old Trafford and they will face this match with a decent amount of confidence. Braga are pretty close to the class of Benfica these days, maybe even Porto.
It looks like the United coach Ferguson may shuffle the pack tomorrow and will we see too many Giggs and Scholes, you know what I mean, then I am prepared to back this Braga side, a Braga side in very good form and with all their best players available. Home win for now.

Juventus - Nordsjälland 1.16 - 23.00

The home side will most certainly be able to create enough of scoring chances to grab the three points, but it is not always the easy part for Juventus, to find the net, I mean. They did enough to win the match in Copenhagen, but they were too wasteful on the day.
Vucinic will be rested for Juventus, probably also Giovinco and then it is between Matri, Quagliarella and Bendtner for two starting roles upfront. Pogba will most likely start tomorrow. Nordsjälland will probably be unchanged, or N Stockholm will not be ready. Home winner.

Valencia - Bate Borisov 1.29 - 16.01

I waited for Bate to take the lead in the first leg two weeks ago. They were the better side in the first half, but then Valencia were rewarded a late penalty, scored and the match changed for the worse for Bate. They had to chase the game and they too often lost the ball in the middle of the pitch with Valencia deadly dangerous on their speed counter attacks.
I have to say, I love the way that Valencia change the pace of the game. It is done in an instant, very effective and that is modern football, in my opinion. Quite fit Valencia squad only missing J Mathieu. They defeated Atletico Madrid at the weekend and I cannot really see Valencia dropping any points against this Belo Russian side. Bate will miss the suspended Pavlov. Once again, home win, but quite worthless odds.

Bayern Munich - Lille 1.20 - 19.40

A good side like Lille on zero points after three rounds in this group. They got off to the worst possible start losing at home to Bate Borisov in their first game. Talk about damage done. Basa, Beria and Debuchy, all early injury doubts, have been cleared to play and Mavuba could start.
Robben was on the bench for Bayern at the weekend when his side defeated Hamburg, with ease one must say. I missed no one in particular in the Bayern squad, M Gomes aside, and you always expect a full strength Bayern side to win their home games in Europe. Robben will start tomorrow and maybe we will see Javi Martinez as well. Home win, but the odds are of course quite useless.

Benfica - Spartak Moscow 1.65 - 6.40

So far nothing great from Benfica, but they usually are very strong in their European home fixtures. Losing their only home game against Barcelona does not change my opinion.
An own goal from Jardel gifted Spartak the win in Moscow, but at the end of the day Spartak deserved the win. It was cold in Moscow and it was a difficult night for Benfica. Gaitan and Cardozo, will they start this time for Benfica? They were benched in Moscow. Matic will not play due to a suspension.
At least two Spartak players, missing two weeks ago, will return for this match. I am referring to Insaurralde and and De Zeeuw. Mc Geady, Emenike, Welliton and Romulo are among their many injury victims. Advantage Benfica, but what about the odds? Probably OK.

Cluj - Galatasaray 2.70 - 2.88

It was a must win game for Galatasaray two weeks ago. The rain poured down when the Turks failed to defeat Cluj (1-1), although Cluj were down the ten men in the second half. F Melo missed a penalty for Galatasaray. J Elmander will not play for Gala, no F Melo either, while the Romanians will be without their suspended midfielder Aguirregaray. I cannot really back up this bet, but I end up supporting the away win.

Football Betting Prediction

Ajaccio - Marseille 3.81 - 2.20

I am not trusting Marseille at all at the moment and this price on the home win is well worth backing. Ajaccio remain unbeaten at Corsica and they have yet to concede a single goal in their home fixtures. They were 4-1 up away to Lorient last week in a crazy game with the match ending in a 4-4 draw. Ajaccio really should have scored more goals. They missed several great scoring opportunities. Mutu scored his first goal for the club playing alongside Eduardo in their front line.
Marseille have lost their last three away games, vs. Troyes in the league, vs. Borussia M. in Europe and in midweek against PSG in the domestic cup. They have looked too predictable, too slow lately. Both their strikers Gignac and A Ayew will miss this game. Fanni, defender, will be suspended and fit again Diawara could replace him, or L Mendez will. Backing the outsider.

Brest - Lorient 2.94 - 2.66

Derby game tonight and I like the odds on the home win. Brest are 3-1-0 in their home fixtures and for this match they will be able to call on their striker Ben Basat again along with defender I Traore. No Chafni.
Defender Le Lan will be available again for Lorient, but Emeghara is suspended also this week. L Kone is new on their injury list joining among others Ecuele Mange. Lorient have struggled a bit of late and away from home they are 1-3-1. The home win is over priced in my opinion and Brest will get my vote.

Fulham - Everton 2.78 - 2.67

Who is missing Clint Dempsey these days? I for one thought that Fulham would struggle without the American, but so far, no problems. Jol’s Fulham have become one of the most entertaining sides in the Premiership. I missed the new Swedish star Kacaniklic last week when Fulham drew 3-3 at Reading, but he should be back for this match.
Everton will be able to call on S Pienaar again. D Gibson will be missing and probably K Mirallas as well. D Berbatov is a case of concern for Fulham and I need him playing to actually back the home win. In that case, decent odds on the Fulham home win.

Liverpool - Newcastle 1.61 - 6.90

One thing you can always rely upon. Liverpool continue to be underpriced in their home fixtures. It has always been like that and the odds on display this time certainly prove my thesis. Liverpool are heading in the right direction, no doubt about that, but so far they have not played any cracking home games.
Newcastle are certainly no pushovers, although they were plain lucky last week winning against WBA after a below par display. There has been some great games between these two sides and I will never forget when Keegan’s Newcastle were beaten 3-4 at Anfield and losing the title to Man United. No bet game for this writer, or something on the away win.

Manchester Utd - Arsenal 1.73 - 5.50

I would love to back my team Arsenal in this match. United on the other side and the juicy price on the outsider, but I cannot do it. Gervinho has joined Diaby, Gibbs and Szczesny on the sidelines. Wilshere, Sagna and Walcott could all feature tomorrow and Oxlade-Chamberlain will have a late fitness test.
It seems like the United coach Ferguson has at last found his team. With A Young and Valencia on the two flanks United have a very effective midfield again and you cannot better their offensive duo, can you?
Arsenal got their all important win against QPR, but they are not playing like a top side for the time being. Hopefully they will relish this moment, facing United as big outsiders, and produce a classical Arsenal display with the emphasis on speedy counter attacks. That is what I hope, but at the end of the day I expect United to be the winners. The odds on the home win, however, are the worst for a long time.

Norwich - Stoke 2.76 - 2.82

Better looking Norwich side these last two weeks. They just look more confident, more likely to score goals and G Holt is slowly finding his form again. R Snodgrass is fit again and he played most of the second half against Aston Villa.
I will not start criticizing Stoke after their 0-0 game against Sunderland. You know what to expect from Stoke and everything pointed to a drab non football affair vs. a Sunderland team lacking constructive ideas. Stoke lost M Wilson to an injury and he will be missing for a while. G Whelan could return for tomorrow’s game. Norwich need fresh legs to defeat Stoke and they may suffer a bit after their midweek cup game against Tottenham.

Q P R - Reading 1.95 - 4.65

Too many QPR players are sent off and their poor discipline has become costly. The one to blame must be their coach. It started with J Barton and D Cisse and last week it was M’Bia who was shown the red card and his stupidity cost QPR a valuable point. QPR were 2-1 up at home to Reading in a cup game earlier this season, but they ended up losing the match 2-3.
What will be the Reading confidence and self esteem be like on Sunday after their extraordinary topsy turvy game against the Arsenal reserves. They were 4-0 up playing some great stuff, but ended up losing the match 5-7. I will back QPR to win their first league game of the season.

Sunderland - Aston Villa 2.12 - 4.00

Six goals in their eight league games and five of them scored by S Fletcher, that is Sunderland(1-6-1 this far) Why they have become such a low scoring team I cannot say, but could be that their wing play is not working like before. Yes and Sessegnon has not been close to his best form from last season. Sunderland fired blanks again in midweek at home to Middlesbrough in the cup (0-1 loss) and then you should know that they started with practically their strongest side, only missing Seb Larsson.
Villa have similar problems having scored one more goal than Sunderland, but they have played one game more in the league. Villa, at least, found the net against Swindon in the cup, scoring three goals. J Bennett will be back from his suspension for this game, but they lose their midfielder El Ahmadi to a suspension. Will we have another sleeping pill at the Stadium of Light?

Swansea - Chelsea 5.01 - 1.80

This Swansea side holds their own against any side, at least in Wales, and I smell difficulties for Chelsea. It is about efficiency in the final third for Swansea. Passing the ball, getting in good positions, that is usually no problems for Swansea, but they lack a real number nine, if you know what I mean. Their great keeper Vorm is sidelined at the moment. Chico, defender, will be assessed ahead of this game.
Both Ivanovic and Torres will be back for Chelsea, but they will miss J Terry and F Lampard again this week. Ashley Cole is also in danger of missing this game. Chelsea had to use quite a few regulars against Man United in the cup (5-4 win) and this game may prove more than awkward or Chelsea. Their squad is a bit stretched at the moment and they will play the all important match against Shaktar in just a few days. The odds on the away win are way too short, unbackable in my opinion.

Tottenham - Wigan 1.51 - 7.50

Typical Tottenham against Southampton. Quite superior in the first half they lost their ways in the second half and could barely hold on to their 2-1 lead. What about playing with passion for the whole of 90 minutes! They were also cruising against Norwich in the cup, but conceded two late goals, missed a penalty and ended up losing the match. That is Tottenham this season, strong in patches, but too unstable. Dembele will not be fit to play, but maybe Adebayor will.
Wigan played a good game at home to West Ham absolutely deserving their three points. A committed Tottenham side will win this game, but should they offer a half hearted display there is every risk that they will be punished. You do what you like with this 1.51 on the home win, but it’s not for me.

W B A - Southampton 1.75 - 5.06

I talk about luck every now and then, but do not take it too literally. WBA deserved more from their visit to St James last week and they probably also deserved something from their home game against Man City the week before. So it has not been going the WBA way lately, although they have played some decent football. This they have done from day one this season.
Southampton as expected fielded reserves against Leeds in the cup and we will see a well rested and well prepared Saints squad for this match. Home win, I guess.

West Ham - Manchester City 5.25 - 1.74

There are almost always two versions after a match and the West Ham coach had the opinion that his side under performed against Wigan and that is why his side lost the match. You know the coaches, one is more one sided than the other, but the Leeds coach Warnock can never be beaten. West Ham have so far looked good in their home fixtures and this I state although they went down to Arsenal 1-3.
Man City hope to include Javi Garcia for this game, but definitely out is the injured M Richards. Fit again Zabaleta will cover for Richards. D Silva? Not ready, or I have not heard anything else. I do not know what to think really, but I cannot accept this 1.74 on the away win.

Bolton - Cardiff 2.38 - 3.15

I will back Bolton against the league leaders. It will be the first game for the new Bolton manager D Freedman and I suggest he will make an instant impact. Bolton have one of the strongest side in this division, but so far they have not lived up to expectations, far from that. OK, they have been relatively strong in their home games (3-2-1 this far).
Lee is back playing for Bolton and he scored their goal against Middlesbrough last week.
Cardiff are topping the table thanks to their 100% home record. Away from home they are more human with 2-1-3 this far. S McPhail is fit again and he should be in contention for this match. C Bellamy is always touch and go. You never really know if he will play or not.
I expect a great game from Freedman’s Bolton and I will back the home win.

Brighton - Leeds 2.05 - 4.02

Tonight Leeds will play again and I think they will suffer at Brighton.
Plenty of action lately for Leeds. After two disappointing home games in the league they expectedly defeated the Southampton reserves in midweek. Leeds basically fielded their first strings again and the way I see it the Leeds squad has been a bit overworked these last two weeks. Not many options either for coach Warnock and he has to go around with the same group of players. Becchio will start tomorrow and P Kenny will stand between the sticks.
Brighton are winless in six games and their previously hot striker Mackail-Smith, recently back from injury, has yet to find his early season scoring form. Brighton picked up a valuable, morale boosting point away to Blackpool last week and I predict that they will start winning matches again, starting with this one. Brighton are a quality side. Backing Brighton.

Bologna - Udinese 2.50 - 3.23

It is getting tough for Bologna. Pogba’s last minute goal for Juventus in midweek resulted in their fourth loss on the bounce. Three of those losses have been by the odd goal and Bologna are rarely outplayed in their matches.
Important Diamanti will return for this game and their midfielder Perez will also be back.
Di Natale scored twice for his Udinese at home to Catania once again saving his side (2-2). It looks like Di Natale will miss this match. He will have a late fitness test. Defence man Danilo will sit out a suspension. I am prepared to back a highly motivated home side in this game.

Catania - Lazio 2.63 - 3.20

My choice will be the home win. Both Marchese and Legrottaglie will be back for the home side. Barrientos will most likely be back to play in their front line.
Lazio will have important Hernanes available again, Ledesma as well, but they lose their front man Klose to a suspension. Marchetti, their first choice keeper, remains sidelined. Maybe T Rocchi will start upfront. It is almost always a natural choice for this writer backing Catania in their home games. So be it.

Fiorentina - Cagliari 1.65 - 7.24

Four straight wins for Cagliari. When did this happen before? OK, they have not played against any of the top sides, but it is still a fantastic achievement and I guess their new coach will be declared a saint any of these days.
Conti and Nainggolan will be suspended for Cagliari and A Ekdal will probably start again. Both Cossu and Pinilla are playing again, but Nene and Sau did a great job in midweek and there is healthy competition in their offensive line at the moment.
Aquilani made his come back last night, coming on as a second half substitute, when Fiorentina won their first away game of the season, 1-0 vs. Genoa. At home Fiorentina are 4-1-0 and they are motivated favourites in this match, but they have become too big favourites.

Juventus - Inter 1.73 - 5.55

The bookmakers obviously want us to back Inter in this match. I mean, backing Juventus as 1.73 favourites in this top of the table clash is close to impossible. It is not like Inter are in poor form, no, they have won their last seven league games.
I have to say something about the new Juventus star Pogba. He is reminding of Balotelli, but I assure you, Pogba is already better than him. Pogba was man of the match in mid week.
Chiellini, Lichtsteiner, Asamoah, Vidal and Vucinic will all be back for this match. None of these Juventus profiles played against Bologna.
Juan Jesus will be available again for Inter. Cambiasso from the start this time, I guess.
Inter have won all their away games this far and if I choose to be involved in this match I will back the outsider. It is only about the odds, you know.

Milan - Chievo 1.50 - 8.20

Down 0-2 away to Palermo the Milan coach went for broke and it paid off. A very offensive Milan side managed to draw the match and there for once was a positive feeling in the Milan camp after the game. For this match Milan have to manage without their suspended defender Bonera. Milan will have a very offensive line up tomorrow.
Chievo won their all important home game against Pescara 2-0. They did not have an easy ride, but with Pescara down to ten men in the second half, the Chievo goals had to come. Their injury list remains the same. Di Michele could be involved tomorrow. Chievo are 0-0-4 in their away games and this looks like loss number five. Home winner.

Napoli - Torino 1.56 - 7.50

Saying that Napoli are Cavani dependant is certainly not saying too much.
He will probably be missing again.
Drawing rather deservedly with Lazio meant that Torino remain unbeaten on their travels (1-4-0). Obviously they play some clever football away from home, hard to break down, not necessarily the most entertaining stuff. They will be able to call on Sansone again and Ogbonna could also be ready for this fixture.
No bet on the Napoli win as long as Cavani is missing.

Pescara - Parma 3.38 - 2.40

Backing the away win. The Pescara coach is hanging on the ropes, but what about their players? What to do with a very limited squad? Defence man Romagnoli and Colucci will be suspended for the home side and still no Terlizzi. Last chance saloon for the Pescara coach this weekend.
Parma will be without their suspended striker Belfodil, who scored one of their goals against Roma. Hopefully Amauri will be fit to play, but this I doubt. We may see Pabon and Biabiany in the Parma front line. Not ideal, I have to say, but I will go opposing Pescara.

Roma - Palermo 1.57 - 6.48

Too bad that I did not follow my own suggestion. Roma went down 2-3 away to Parma, but I completely forgot about it. I was happy to see Parma winning the match. Balzaretti, the Roma defender, former Palermo man, is expected back for this game and also Taddei will be available again. Tachtsidis will return from his suspension. Their keeper Stekelenburg risks missing this game.
Who wants this 1.57 on the home win? There is every chance that Palermo’s only dangerous weapon, Miccoli will score a brace in this game. Who will stop him? Forget about the Roma defenders, because they are nowhere to be found.
No Donati for Palermo. As I said earlier this week Roma have to score three goals to win any match these days. Another 3-2 home win.

Sampdoria - Atalanta 2.35 - 3.62

As long as Sampdoria had eleven players on the pitch they matched Inter on a rainy evening and the Costa dismissal proved costly. Anyway Sampdoria made a good impression on this writer and it is difficult to understand that they have lost their last five games. No Costa tomorrow, no Munari, and both Obiang and Maresca are serious injury doubts again. I should think that Maxi Lopez will play from the start upfront this time.
The Atalanta keeper Consigli was man of the match when his side win 1-0 at home to Napoli. Both Cigarini and Peluso will return for this game, but Cazzola will sit out a suspension. Raimondi will replace Bellini as right back. I would have hoped for a fitter home squad, but my vote still goes to the home win alternative.

Siena - Genoa 2.26 - 3.70

Important game for Siena in midweek, away to Cagliari, but it did not show. They were 0-3 down after half an hour. Bogdani started instead of Ze Eduardo. Why I do not know. Both their defenders Neto and Felipe will be suspended for this game. The Siena president has called a meeting. Something has to be done to stop the rot and he is right of course.
Genoa are toothless at the moment. They did not create much at home to Fiorentina (0-1 loss). Nothing wrong with their attitude, but like Siena they lack quality players. Jankovic was not fit to play against Fiorentina and I doubt that he will be ready for this fixture. Still no Borriello and Rossi. Two big time strugglers but I do not think that the home side will be on the losing side.

Serie A Betting Prediction 1/11/12

Genoa - Fiorentina 3.46 - 2.40

Fiorentina, winless away from home, as the favourites? It does not look right. Pizarro will be back in the Fiorentina midfield for this game and Roncaglia will also return.
Genoa are still missing among others Borriello and Rossi, but defender Canini will be back for this match and Jankovic should be fit to play.
Delneri suffered a defeat in his first game as the Genoa coach and his offensive options are a bit limited with Borriello out of action. Immobile possibly backed up by Jorquera in their front line.
Fiorentina have not been too enterprising in their away games this far and in my mind there are three possible results on Thursday. 0-0, 0-1 or 1-1.

Serie A Prediction 31/10/12

Atalanta - Napoli 4.00 - 2.21

Both Cigarini and Peluso will be suspended for the home side. Brivio will most likely replace Peluso in their defence, but it is unclear who will come in for Cigarini in the midfield. Bellini, Carmona and Biondini are all available again. Down to ten men in the second half Atalanta managed to keep Pescara from scoring at the weekend (0-0). There is nothing great abut this Atalanta side but they are almost always doing a decent job. Well, not against Torino, not so long ago (1-5 home loss).
Napoli hope to have Cavani back tomorrow, but there is no guarantee. He did not play against Chievo the other day and it showed. Zuniga will miss this fixture, but Britos is back in their squad. No Cavani for Napoli and Atalanta may get their draw. X2 game.

Cagliari - Siena 2.10 - 4.90

The new Cagliari coach has won three games on the trot with his team. He is a defensive coach and Cagliari keep on winning their matches 1-0. Once again it looks like Cagliari will miss Pinilla, but their play maker Cossu is fit again.
Siena were terrible at home to Palermo, or they defended well. I say they were terrible and their coach praises their defence. Defending at home to Palermo, give me a break! Rosina and Campagnolo are not included in their squad, but Felipe is. Backing the home win.

Chievo - Pescara 1.80 - 5.50

Decent Chievo effort against Napoli and as they are facing this rather hopeless Pescara side in Verona there is every chance that this fixture will end with a home win. These sides are on the same points but I hold Chievo as the much better side. Vacek will be suspended for the home side. Blasi will return to the Pescara squad, but they are still missing Jonathas, Terlizzi and Crescenzi.
The game was there to be taken for Pescara at home to Atalanta. Pescara had been the stronger side in the first half and when Atalanta instantly were down to ten men in the second half I expected the home side to decide the match. They were poor, again I must say.
The home win!

Genoa - Fiorentina 3.46 - 2.40

Fiorentina, winless away from home, as the favourites? It does not look right. Pizarro will be back in the Fiorentina midfield for this game and Roncaglia will also return.
Genoa are still missing among others Borriello and Rossi, but defender Canini will be back for this match and Jankovic should be fit to play.
Delneri suffered a defeat in his first game as the Genoa coach and his offensive options are a bit limited with Borriello out of action. Immobile possibly backed up by Jorquera in their front line.
Fiorentina have not been too enterprising in their away games this far and in my mind there are three possible results on Thursday. 0-0, 0-1 or 1-1.

Inter - Sampdoria 1.57 - 8.15

Inter are the away champions in Serie A, having won all their five away fixtures. The Inter overall form is excellent and they must be expected to win this match. Juan Jesus, one of their best players against Bologna, will be suspended tomorrow.
Sampdoria are on a negative run with four losses on the bounce. They will have players back for this game. Romero, Munari and Da Costa will be back in contention along with Castellini. Hopefully also Obiang, but Maresca and Pozzi will be missing and leading striker Maxi Lopez is also in danger of miss out tomorrow. Likely home win, but the odds you can do without.

Juventus - Bologna 1.27 - 16.02

What a disastrous weekend for referees both here and there. Biggest mistake was made by a linesman when Catania scored a legitimate goal against Juventus. The scorer was on side with a meter and the poor fellow blew for offside. It is almost Juventus in the mix. Last season Milan scored a second goal against Juventus, it was over the line with half a meter, but it was disallowed.
Juventus were better than Catania, but Catania in the 1-0 lead are an altogether different side playing the counter attacking game to perfection. The home side will be without the suspended Vidal with Pogba his replacement. Caceres will probably come in for Lichtsteiner.
Bologna, dropping steadily in the table, will miss their important play maker Diamanti. What more to say. Home win of course.

Lazio - Torino 1.79 - 5.65

Another side treated badly by the officials was this Lazio side. They scored a perfect goal against Fiorentina, but it was offside according to the referee. Several of the Lazio players lost their temper later on in Florens and both Hernanez and Ledesma were shown the red card. Hernanez, probably the best Lazio player this season, will of course be suspended tomorrow along with Ledesma, but his absence I can take. No Marchetti in their goal. Brocchi and/or Onazi could earn starting roles in the middle of the park.
Would you believe the newcomers Torino remain unbeaten on their travels (1-3-0). They will hopefully be able to call on Ogbonna again, but Sansone will definitely be missing due to a suspension. Sgrigna or Meggiorini will replace Sansone. Ogbonna is still touch and go. I prefer the home win alternative.

Parma - Roma 3.00 - 2.41

I would have Parma as favourites in this game. Donadoni’s side are unbeaten at home (2-2-0) and they won their first away game of the season at the weekend defeating Torino 3-1 after an impressive display.
There is no way to come to terms with Zeman’s Roma. In the lead 2-0 or down 0-2 in their matches, it does not seem to matter. Their young players, a couple playing rather poorly, will make mistakes, especially in their own box and Roma have to score at least three goals to win their matches. One of their worst players against Udinese, Tachtisidis, will be suspended for this game and Balzaretti risks missing also this match. Mirante will stand between the Parma sticks again. Home win, say 3-2.

Udinese - Catania 1.95 - 4.62

On another day Di Natale would have scored more goals against Roma. He missed some clear cut chances, but at the end of the day he won the match for Udinese. Defender Danilo will return from his suspension tomorrow and his colleague Basta could also be back. Benatia, Pasquale, Pinzi and Muriel remain on the sidelines.
I have already talked about the Catania bad luck and for this match they have to manage without the suspended duo Marchese and Legrottaglie. Bellusci will hopefully be fit joining Spolli in their central defence. I prefer the odds on the home win.

EUROPE: Europa League - Group Stage Prediction

Liverpool - Anzhi 2.30 - 3.30

Quite a game to look forward to. Anzhi are topping the Russian league after a most impressive campaign and can Liverpool afford to face Anzhi with their alternative side used this far in Europe? Yes, I think they will. Liverpool will face Everton in a few days time and no way that coach Rodgers will send out his best players tomorrow. Anzhi miss the injured L Diarra. Backing Eto’o and his Anzhi.

Young Boys - Udinese 2.63 - 2.76

Time for a win for the home side, or they have they already given up on success in Europe? Suffice to say that they have started poorly losing both their group games. 3-5 at home to the Liverpool youngsters/reserves was not the best of starts for the Swiss. Spycher and J Simpson are on their injury list. Their main danger man is Bobadilla.
The same Liverpool, a bit better at least on paper, were given a lesson at home to Udinese, with the Italians winning the match 3-2. The big Swede Ranegie will probably start upfront for Udinese probably supported by Lazzari and Fabbrini, meaning that Di Natale will not play from the start. Pinzi, Pasquale, Basta and Muriel are on their injury list. So could be that Udinese will start with a weaker line up than against Liverpool, but they have travelled with a very strong squad. Away win is more appealing to this writer.

Atletico Madrid - Academica 1.25 - 17.00

I take it for granted that Atletico will continue fielding a mixed side in Europe and I also take it almost for granted that they will be strong to win against this mediocre Portugese side. Yes, half a dozen A Madrid regulars, including Falcao will not be involved in this game. Should Academica defend for their lives maybe they can reach a draw against a rather unmotivated home side, but I do not think so.

Hapoel Tel Aviv - Victoria Plzen 2.95 - 2.50

My choice will be the away win. Plzen lost to a last minute goal away to A Madrid, while Hapoel went down 0-3 against A Madrid in Israel. In both these games A Madrid featured an alternative side. I do not expect an easy ride for Plzen in this match, but I quite often find myself backing this rather good Czech side and they rarely have let me down. They are a good side in with a chance in most games and this 2.50 is a decent price on the away win.

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Marseille 2.40 - 3.28

No doubt, Borussia are in a middle of a rather big crisis. The way they went down to Werder Bremen at the weekend (0-4) after some recent poor results certainly gives evidence of some kind of crisis.
Marseille I watched the other night. They lost to last placed Troyes and Marseille looked surprisingly devoid of ideas. There was no speed to their game, they lacked the necessary intensity and commitment and this surprised me. OK, maybe they did not deserve to lose, but I do not know, Troyes hit the wood work before their winning goal. Gignac is out injured for Marseille.
Struggling home team against a Marseille side on their way down in form. And the outcome? My choice will be the home win.

AEL Limassol - Fenerbahce 4.23 - 2.10

The home side seems to be in a mess and the away win is worth backing.
AEL, after a poor campaign, have just sacked their coach and a new one, a Portugese, is on his way of joining the club. Success in Europe is probably not first on his agenda and it will be difficult after their opening two group games.
Fenerbahce have a quite strong squad. They should do better, although their 4-2 away win against Borussia Möchengladbach was a great result. Important Raul Meireles will miss tomorrow’s match. Backing the away win.

Newcastle - Club Brugge 1.70 - 5.98

Will Newcastle send out a very strong side again? As I just pointed out their starting line up against Bordeaux was much stronger than I had expected. It looks like they will field a side as strong as against Bordeaux and then they should be able to defeat this Brugge side, a side playing with a much weakened defensive line at the moment. Very likely home winner.

Maritimo - Bordeaux 3.06 - 2.63

This Portugese side did not impress in their previous home game in this group. They were second best to the Newcastle reserves, but managed to draw the match 0-0. Bordeaux have shown us two faces this far. Superior at home to a weakened C Brugge side, but then more or less outclassed by a Newcastle side, a Newcastle side in much better shape than against Maritimo.
Bordeaux will be able to call on Henrique and Tremoulinas again for this match. They were suspended in the league. Missing will be Sane and Diabate. X2 game.

Steaua Bukarest - Molde 1.67 - 6.00

Molde were leading 1-0 away to Strömsgodset with only minutes to go at the weekend. Unfortunately for Molde the league leaders managed a late equaliser. Still the race is very much on and could be that their European campaign will suffer a bit. Once again I have to report that Molde will face Rosenborg in a few days and this Europa League fixture could be a bit overlooked by Solskjaer and his team. Not that Solskjaer accepts losing any football games.
Steaua have impressed and they will get my vote in this match, but the odds have been lowered too much these last few days.

Stuttgart - FC Copenhagen 1.62 - 6.02

Stuttgart definitely over their recent mini crisis, at least domestically. At the weekend they won deservedly away to Hamburg. Winless in Europe they need to win this match and they are very much aware of this. Defence man A Boka is out injured.
Copenhagen are enjoying a steady season. No real dips and no real heights this far and they will most likely go on to winning the Danish league title. They do not have the quality to match a Stuttgart side in form and that is the key issue here. I had no problems opposing Stuttgart away to Molde, but I have a distinct feeling that we are about to se a much better Stuttgart side in this match. The odds on the home win, however, are a joke.

P S V - A I K 1.21 - 15.46

Very much involved in the Swedish title race I do not think that AIK will take too many risks in Europe, now that they have lost their two group games. Definitely the home win.

Dnipro - Napoli 2.20 - 3.75

One thing is sure. Napoli have to play with a much stronger squad tomorrow than against PSV in their last group game, or they will have no chance against this rather strong Ukrainian side. I watched them away to Swedish AIK and Dnipro are strong and usually much better in their home fixtures.
Napoli have travelled with a strong squad basically only missing Hamsik and Maggio, but there is no guarantee that all their first choices will play from the start. I am closer to backing the home win.

Videoton - Basel 3.12 - 2.45

What I have seen this far this fixture is about coming second in this group after Genk. Basel, with their experienced squad on this European level, are favourites to advance to the play offs, but I would not bet on it. M Yakin, former Swiss international, is the new Basel coach. His first game in charge ended in defeat against Luzern 0-1. A Frei and Streller played upfront as usual and F Frei also played of course. Yakin is most eager to win tomorrow’s match to get his new career going
Videoton have offered some strong home displays winning comfortably against both Trabzonspor and Sporting Lisbon, but they are struggling in their domestic league, on seventh position. They lost to a Budapest team last week. Basel should be the stronger side, but I am not all convinced.

Genk - Sporting Lisbon 2.70 - 2.75

Backing the home win and surprisingly good odds. Genk are in quite good form and they seem to have a serious interest in the Europa League. Simaeys, Hyland, Joneleit and Kennedy remain on the sidelines.
Sporting are struggling big time and I am talking about their overall contributions this season. They do not seem to care about playing in Europe and they are close to the relegation zone in the Portugese league. At the weekend they lost again, this time to lowly Moreierense. Out injured are Carrico and Pereirinha. Genk to win.

Rubin Kazan - Neftchi 1.29 - 14.64

I will not say more about this fixture than about Rubin’s last home game, vs. Partizan. The Russians must be expected to defeat their Asian neighbours from Azerbaijan and then you do what you like with this 1.29 on the home win. Not for me.

Inter - Partizan Belgrade 1.36 - 10.35

It certainly looks like Inter are treating the Europa League with some respect. Their starting eleven away to Neftchi (3-1 win) was quite impressive. Players like Alvarez, Coutinho and Livaja will start tomorrow and Silvestre and Nagatomo will be back in their defence. I only miss Sneijder and Stankovic in their 21 man squad. Trusting Inter in these kinds of European games is out of the question for me, but I have no intention of making a case for Partizan either.

Sparta Prague - Hapoel KS 1.57 - 7.12

Home winner! Sparta had no problems defeating Atletic in their last home game prolonging their excellent results in their European home fixtures. Sorry, I have nothing really to say about this Israeli side, but sure enough Sparta will be the winners.

Lyon - Atletic Bilbao 1.94 - 4.50

You cannot do more than win your matches and that is what Lyon have achieved this far in Europe. They have not at all performed at their highest level, or there is no high level to talk about for Lyon this season.
A Bilbao are slowly getting better, but their results are certainly nothing to brag about. Still their latest domestic displays indicate a certain improvement , but so far we have not seen this in Europe. Bielsa has taken 20 players with him to France and only Inigo Perez is out injured at the moment.
I expect both these rather big sides to wake up tomorrow. I mean, Lyon are usually playing in the Champions League and Atletic Club played in the Europa league final last season.
Both teams on the score sheet, an over game in other words, but which side will win the match? I rest my case.

Panathinaikos - Lazio 3.20 - 2.40

Although Panathinaikos have been struggling this season they demonstrated good morale and some improved football at home to Tottenham. They were down 0-1 and looked out of the match, but picked themselves up and reached a deserved 1-1 draw.
Lazio have travelled with a strong squad to Greece, but which players will actually start the match? Remains to be seen. Lazio have a tricky away game against Fiorentina in the league in a few days time. Lazio will definitely be without their keeper Marchetti, Lulic and Ederson, but Radu will make his come back in this game. At most a draw is within reach for Lazio, at least in my opinion. 1X game.

Maribor - Tottenham 5.50 - 1.73

I am not saying that Maribor will be the winners here, but the home win looks overpriced. Maribor are as strong as Panathinaikos and what I know Tottenham could not defeat the Greeks a few weeks ago (1-1). Panathinaikos are a bigger club than Maribor, but we must not forget that Maribor were 3-0 winners at home to Panathinaikos. No Vidovic for Maribor.
Could be that G Bale, who did not play for Tottenham at the weekend, will play for Spurs in this game and that is not good news for Maribor. Something on the home win.

Rosenborg - Metalist Kharkiv 3.00 - 2.45

It is a battle on two fronts for Rosenborg. They are very much involved in the Norwegian title race, but they also want to succeed in Europe. Top priority? Winning the league, no doubt. They are injury free at the moment, but I do not think that they will be playing with their best side in this game. Why? They will face Molde this weekend, biggest game of the season for Rosenborg. Latest training session, however, indicates that Rosenborg will send out their strongest eleven tomorrow
This great Metalist side managed an impressive win in the Ukrainian league in their last league game defeating D Kiev away from home 3-1. Taison, Torres and Xavier were their scorers. No Russian names, but it is well known fact that South Americans are dominating their squad. It will be cold tomorrow, not a pleasant climate for South Americans, but I guess that they are used to freezing conditions. They are playing in Ukraine after all. I prefer the away win alternative.

Rapid Wien - Bayer Leverkusen 5.36 - 1.80

Two losses in this group for Rapid and how motivated will they be tomorrow, especially after their derby loss against Austria Wien at the weekend. Losing their previous home game in this group against Rosenborg was a hammer blow, while their loss vs. Metalist was nothing to moan about.
Bayer are a class act and they will most likely do enough to win this match. This they managed away to Rosenborg, with their winning goal coming late but deserved. Both their midfielders S Reinartz and S Sam are out of this match and they have travelled to Austria with only fifteen players. Likely away win.

Helsingborg - Hannover 4.31 - 1.95

Decent side this Swedish Helsingborg team. They could not hold on to their 2-0 lead at home to Twente, but they have the capacity to defeat teams like Hannover and Twente. Not when these respected European sides are playing their best football, but on days when they are slightly off key. Accam and Sörum, the Helsinborg forwards, started on the bench at the weekend. The Helsingborg squad is quite fit at the moment.
Hannover, down to ten men, found a way of defeating Levante in their last group game and I accept them as rather big favourites in this match. Tomorrow they will miss their two defenders Haggui and Felipe. Chr. Schulz could start. Hannover backable as 1.95 favourites? No, I do not think so.

Levante - Twente 2.40 - 3.23

Mission accomplished this weekend for Levante. That is what I think after their important late win against Getafe at the weekend. It was a terrible game of football, I must say. I have my doubts about their overall interest in the Europa League. They were pure lucky defeating Helsingborg in their previous home game and their Europa league side, 11 vs. 10 on the pitch, could not hold on to their 1-0 lead against Hannover. I said Europa League side, because they like to change things around for their European fixtures. O Martins will not play and D Navarro and Dudka will not feature either. There could be more changes.
Twente demonstrated will and morale when they fought back from 0-2 down away to Helsingborg. Chadli, their winger, ran the show. I just checked their squad and they have travelled with their best players. I prefer the away win.