Tuesday, October 23, 2012

EUROPE: Champions League - Group Stage Prediction 24/10/2012



Arsenal - Schalke 04 2.05 - 4.00

Late October and already I have to state some uncomfortable facts. I was wrong about Arsenal and they will not win the Premiership this season either. Now all teams know what Arsenal are all about. Take care of Cazorla and Arsenal will be less of a threat. Diaby, Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain are among the Arsenal injury victims at the moment.
Schalke come to this match high on confidence after their famous away win against Borussia Dortmund. In their last Champions League group game however, they disappointed hugely conceding a late equaliser against ten man Montpellier. Draxler could feature, but defender Papadopoulos will not take part in this game. Looking at the odds there is no doubt, the home win has to be backed.

Porto - Dinamo Kiev 1.62 - 6.50

Very likely home win. Porto won deservedly against PSG although their winning goal arrived late in the game. They are not likely to drop any home points and there is nothing great about this version of D Kiev. They are 8-0-4 in the Ukrainian league and in their last league game they went down to Metalist Kharkiv 1-3 with D Kiev the home side. Porto should be the winners.

Dynamo Zagreb - P S G 6.25 - 1.65

I should probably say something about D Zagreb and their shortcomings in Europe. They are used to losing their matches, but this fact does not make me want to bet on this poor price on the away win. PSG are probably a team that will improve with time, but they are not at all a top side for the time being. They have a bunch of strong individuals like Ibrahimovic and T Silva, but the team as such does not look convincing. Many PSG players are injured at the moment, important players like Lavezzi, T Motta, Nene, Chantome and Sakho. No bet for now.

Montpellier - Olympiakos 2.10 - 4.20

Very tempting odds on the away win. Absolutely worth backing. Olympiakos are old foxes in Europe and they often offer quite strong displays also away from home. They could easily have gotten something from their recent visit to the Emirates, but at the end of the day they were beaten 1-3 by Arsenal. In the domestic league they are 7-0-0 this far. Djebbour scored twice for Olympiakos at the weekend.
Montpellier are a losing side this season and their only bright moment was late on against Schalke when they managed a late equaliser totally out of the blue. They keep on letting their fans down in the league and they lost against at the weekend, this time away to Rennes, 1-2. Bocaly will be suspended for this fixture and Ait-Fana and Estrada are on their injury list. Yanga Mbiwa, suspended on the domestic front, could play here. Crazy odds on the away win and I will go all in.

Zenit - Anderlecht 1.53 - 8.03

Zenit are another Russian side that so often makes it difficult for themselves, down 0-2 at home to Milan after half an hour in their last group game. Zenit are a strong side, they fought back, but a heroic display from the Milan keeper Abbiati stopped Hulk and the other Zenit forwards from winning the match. In true Russian fashion Zenit conceded a late goal and in some unbelievable way they ended up losing the game (2-3). Hulk, Kerzhakov and probably Bystrov will do the attacking job tomorrow.
Anderlecht look poor and they were outclassed at home by Malaga. The Belgians had nothing offensively to offer and for this match they have to manage without their striker M’bokani along with M Bruno. Home win every day of the week.

Malaga - Milan 2.10 - 3.96

Malaga have been amazing so far this season. It is quite possible however that they peaked away to Anderlecht. In my opinion they will not be able to top that performance and they already struggled at home to Valladolid at the weekend. They won the home match 2-1, but their winning goal arrived late. Monreal, left back, will not recover for this match and Eliseu will once again be his replacement. Eliseu did not look comfortable against Valladolid. Recio, Duda or Iturra will join Camacho in the middle of the park.
Milan were 0-3 down against an incredibly effective Lazio side at the weekend, but they managed a late come back with the match ending 2-3. Milan were not that bad, but they are a luckless side at the moment, low on confidence. Unfortunately for Milan Abbiati has not recovered and Amelia will be the Milan keeper tomorrow.
That is why Malaga are as low priced as 2.10 against famous Milan. A confident side against a Milan side in some kind of depression. Still we must not forget, this is the Champions League and Milan have done alright so far with one draw and one win in the bag. Sorry, I cannot trust Malaga in this match. Goals? Yes!

Ajax - Manchester City 5.10 - 1.80

You know that Real Madrid will win away to Ajax, but it does not feel the same way when Man City are facing the Amsterdam side. I mean, City are almost as strong as Madrid, but they have so far never demonstrated their real strength in Europe. Something happens when Man City are playing in the Champions League and it is not to their advantage. Man City where so lucky drawing at home to Borussia Dortmund after a sluggish display.
City look really strong on the domestic front and squad wise they look OK, but they have to play without D Silva. Kun Aguero will start again.
Ajax were 2-0 up against Heracles at the weekend, but after the 90 minutes the match was a 3-3 draw. They fielded their best side. My choice has to be the away win.

Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid 3.50 - 2.21

Every game has its own life. It is an old cliche, but worth repeating. Dortmund were excellent away to Man City, but a few days ago they lost a rare home game in the Bundesliga, 1-2 against Schalke. Goetze, Guendogan and Schmelzer were all missing and they are injury doubts for this match. It looks like Goetze and Schmelzer could be back, but no Guendogan. Blasczykowski is out injured.
Real are struggling defensively at the moment and against Celta Vigo at the weekend M Essien had to play in their defence, Varane as well together with Pepe as centre backs. Marcelo, Arbeloa and Coentrao remain on the sidelines, but Khedira will make a timely return tomorrow. The draw, score draw, say 2-2.

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