EUROPE : Champions League - Group Stage Prediction

Shaktar Donetsk - Chelsea 2.50 - 3.00

Impressive Shaktar season this far. They have won all their twelve domestic league games and they were the better side in Italy drawing 1-1 with Juventus.
Chelsea won the Champions League last season thanks to some stubborn defending and all the luck in the world, but I have to say that this version of Chelsea is so much more attractive, hopefully as strong as well. Their offensive display against Tottenham was just magnificent. J Terry will be back for Chelsea and F Lampard as well. What a game to look forward to and I do not think that Chelsea will be on the losing side.

Barcelona - Celtic 1.09 - 29.00

Missing Busquets, D Alves, Pique and Puyol will not matter for the home side. They will of course defeat this Celtic side. Saying that Celtic have played much better football so far than this writer had expected. S Brown, J Forrest, G Samaras and K Commons, all rested at the weekend, will travel to Barcelona, but Lassad is ruled out of this game. Even with a half hearted Barca display tomorrow they are still on another planet than the Celts.

Manchester Utd - Braga 1.36 - 10.00

Smart defensively, a rather typical hard to beat Portugese side, this Braga side. Last season Man United could not defeat Benfica at Old Trafford and it proved costly with United missing out on the play offs. Benfica last season, were probably better than this year’s version of Braga, but I would not call them much better. Offensively United look great this season, but their defence has similar problems as last year. Home win, 2-1 or 3-1.

Nordsjälland - Juventus 9.50 - 1.40

This Danish side is playing some nice football and they often dominate the ball possession. They did away to Shaktar for instance. At home to Chelsea, 0-1 down, they were close to finding an equaliser on several occasions, finally hitting the wood work, but after the second Chelsea goal they gave up, or fell apart.
In my opinion they can cause problems for Juventus and I would not be surprised to see Juve underestimating Nordsjälland tomorrow. I have nothing negative to say about Juventus. They win their games almost like machines, wearing their opponents down in the end. Buffon, Vucinic and De Ceglie will all be back for Juventus. A warning is in order in this fixture, meaning that 1.40 is no good.

Bate Borisov - Valencia 3.90 - 2.15

The Swedes drawing 4-4 against Germany, 0-4 down with half an hour to go, was the surprise of the season so far, but the two 3-1 wins for Bate in this group are close. They won deservedly both against Lille and Bayern and here they are outsiders again.
Banega was back for Valencia at the weekend. His side was struggling at home to Atletic Bilbao, but thanks to two late goals they were able to win the match. Well the main reason was perhaps the fact that Atletic were down to ten men. Anyway important league win for Valencia and for this match they will be able to call on the important Feghouli again. Mathieu is out injured.
Valencia have been warned and all that, but I cannot back this 2.15 on the away win. Valencia are not known to travel well in Europe.

Lille - Bayern Munich 6.75 - 1.60

There was no improvement to be seen when Lille managed a late, most undeserved point against Bordeaux at the weekend. S Kalou and Martin were back from injuries, but Lille offered once again a very unconvincing performance. Debuchy, Gueye and Mavuba will miss out tomorrow and defender Basa is also in danger of missing this match.
Bayern are still missing Robben, Van Buyten and M Gomez, but C Pizarro will be back. Bayern look just great, at least on the domestic front. If nothing else I should think that their loss against Bate will make them extra motivated for this game and I cannot really see Lille causing an upset tomorrow. OK, maybe Lille will be able to play a more relaxed game as under dogs, under no real pressure and 1.60 on the away win can never be backable odds. Goals? Yes, I think so.

Spartak Moscow - Benfica 2.95 - 2.70

I always had the feeling that Spartak are making it difficult for themselves in Europe, especially in their home fixtures, but the facts still surprised me. Only one home win in Europe for Spartak in fifteen home fixtures. I do not have to talk about their synthetic pitch any more, that is for sure. At the weekend Spartak were in the lead away to league leaders Anzhi, but a red card proved costly with Spartak losing the match 1-2.
Welliton, probably their best striker, was back playing from the start. I do not know whether he will play tomorrow or not, but his colleague Emenike is considered a major injury doubt. Insaurralde, the defender, will be suspended tomorrow. Spartak have keeper problems and we will most likely see their third choice keeper between their sticks tomorrow.
Benfica remain unbeaten in the Portugese league (4-2-0) but I have not seen anything special from them this season. They were happy playing out a 0-0 draw at Celtic, as expected they had no real chance against Barcelona and I should think that a draw would please the Portugese also in tomorrow’s game. Lima, Cardozo and Rodrigo are their offensive options. X2 game.

Galatasaray - Cluj 1.75 - 5.50

Trusting this Turkish side is close to impossible. They were deservedly beaten by Braga in their last group game, but they impressed against Man United at Old Trafford. I backed Galatasaray away to Glencirbirligi last week. I backed them at half time when they were 0-1 down. They scored two second half goals and I started to count the winnings, but then they conceded two goals in one minute. The match ended in a 3-3 draw and it was a typical Gala fixture.
Cluj have poor form with two straight league defeats in the Romanian league. One of their leading offensive players, Sougou is in danger of missing this match, but he has travelled to Istanbul. Likely home win.

Football prediction

Valenciennes - Lorient 2.26 - 3.64

Two teams looking good and I will back the home side. Valenciennes, unbeaten at home, became the first side that defeated Marseille. They more or less outclassed the league leaders 4-1. Then they went to Toulouse and Valenciennes were in the lead with only seconds to go, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Their midfielder L Nery will miss this match along with R Mater, but their forward Pujol is fit at last and maybe he will play some part in this game.
Lorient are 3-5-0 after eight league rounds and that is pretty good numbers. Mareque has joined Coutadeur and Ecuele Manga on the sidelines and their midfielder A Romao is a major injury doubt. Valenciennes have a great home record against Lorient (8-4-1), their loss was back in the seventies. Valenciennes to win.

Fulham - Aston Villa 1.85 - 4.84

D Berbatov will most likely return to the Fulham squad for this match and M Petric could also be available again. B Ruiz risks missing the match.
The big question concerning the Villa squad is of course: Will coach Lambert keep D Bent out of their starting line up again? Bent did not play a single minute against Tottenham with Agbonlahor, B Holman and Benteke doing the attacking job for Villa. N’Zogbia came on as a substitute, but no Bent. S Ireland will be available again.
Sure enough Fulham should be rather big favourites at their fortress, Craven Cottage, but this 1.85 is too short, at least in my opinion.

Liverpool - Reading 1.36 - 10.55

The more they fail the bigger favourites they become in the next match. I am talking about the odds offered by the bookies on Liverpool. It is the old trap - this time they really have to win. Liverpool could not break down a strong Stoke defence a fortnight ago, but I admit, it should be somewhat easier against Reading. They never were a defensive side.
J Shelvey will return from his suspension for this game, but Liverpool have lost Borini to an injury. Keeper Reina is in danger of miss this game and if so, Brad Jones will be the Liverpool keeper. Practically all the Liverpool starters in this match have been playing on the international circuit, while it has been quieter for the Reading players. Slight advantage for Reading. Anyway this 1.36 is totally unbackable.

Manchester Utd - Stoke 1.30 - 12.63

I was so pleased to see United at last playing with a “modern” midfield against Newcastle. That is the way to do it, coach Ferguson. United impressed hugely playing with both speed and purpose. For this game A Young will be back in contention, but not yet C Smalling.
The Stoke defensive game away to Liverpool was spot on and Pulis will be hoping for a repeat show tomorrow. A Wilkinson will be back from his suspension.
Quite possible that some of the United midfielders will be a bit worn out after their international commitments and maybe we will see well rested veterans Scholes and Giggs playing from the start again. You know what I think about that. The United eleven that played at Newcastle will win this match.

Norwich - Arsenal 6.50 - 1.60

Talking about defences. Only Southampton have conceded more goals than Norwich.
Grant Holt has scored in their last two fixtures and it is the only piece of good news I have to report about Norwich.
Stretched or not, having played on the international arena these last ten days, I expect the Arsenal players to do enough to win this game. No Walcott, no Diaby, no Sczczesny, no Koscielny, but both J Wilshere and B Sagna are finally back in training. They played ninety minutes in a reserve game this week but they will not be involved tomorrow. Away win, but the odds make me pass.

Q P R - Everton 3.60 - 2.30

Time for the first QPR win? I dare not suggest this, but 3.60 are tempting odds. Last time I suggested that QPR would be the winners was at home to West Ham on a Monday night and they were nowhere near winning the match. Then they went to the Hawthorns and lost again, this time 2-3. Taarabt is hot for QPR, but their defence keeps letting them down. Both the defenders C Hill and Fabio are edging closer to returns.
Everton have to manage without one of their key players, Fellani. That is the negative I can up with concerning this Everton side. T Hibbert and D Gibson are also struggling, but they can be replaced. Still Everton are not at all unbeatable for a side like QPR, especially away from home. QPR to win.

Sunderland - Newcastle 2.54 - 3.04

Poor L Cattermole, this is just the kind of game that he would have loved to play. He will complete his suspension this weekend. S Taylor, F Coloccini and T Krul returned to training this week for Newcastle and we will probably see one or two of them in this match.
These two sides have not won too many games this season. Sunderland have managed only one win and Newcastle have picked up two three pointers. Newcastle have the better potential offensively and they will get my backing in this hot fixture.

Swansea - Wigan 2.07 - 3.88

There is unrest in the Swansea squad. According to reports several of their players are unhappy with Laudrup’s training methods, or should I say, lack of training methods. “ We are not training enough” is the opinion held by those players. I do not know what to believe, but there is usually some truth in these kind of rumours. Swansea dominated more than ever at home to Reading, but they had to settle for a 2-2 draw. At last they scored a couple of goals again.
I rarely know what to expect from Wigan. Their best asset is still their coach, who usually brings the best out of his players. A side in relative harmony, Wigan, and this fact could prove decisive tomorrow. Missing tomorrow will be Alcaraz and Crusat. I will take a chance with the away win.

Tottenham - Chelsea 2.65 - 2.96

Hopefully the many internationals will be relatively fresh for this mouth watering London derby. It is a game to look forward to between the unbeaten Chelsea side and a Tottenham side on a clear upward trend. F Lampard and R Bertrand could not play for England in midweek and they will both be assessed ahead of this match. J Terry will of course serve the first day of his suspension.
Adebayor made his come back two weeks ago for Tottenham and I take it for granted that we will see more of him tomorrow. It is like starting afresh and who knows which group of players will be at their fittest, but we do not have to worry about committed players, or not.
Big game for both teams and, as I have no real opinion, I will settle for the draw. The odds are 3.48.

W B A - Manchester City 5.19 - 1.75

One or two of the WBA injury victims could return for this game. Lukaku has the best chance of being fit. Mulumbu is an injury doubt. It is not often that you will get 5.19 on a home team yet to drop a single point in their home fixtures. (4-0-0). WBA have not faced any top sides? Well they have defeated both the Liverpool clubs.
Last time we saw Man City was at home to Sunderland and probably for the first time this season we saw a very determined City side. It was like they had finally woken up from their early season slumber. They have to manage without the injured D Silva. No J Rodwell either, but that is OK. Two teams in form, I guess, but the Man City players could a bit over worked after the international circuit. X2 game.

West Ham - Southampton 1.91 - 4.33

Losing at home to Arsenal has not changed my opinion about West Ham. They play some strong football at Upton Park and they will not lose too many home games this season and certainly not when Andy Carroll is fit and playing. On another day K Nolan would have scored at least one goal vs. Arsenal. West Ham will be without the injured Vaz Te this time.
As much as I like Southampton their present defence is too soft for the Premiership. Their expensive signing, the exciting ex-Bologna midfielder G Ramirez, will be sidelined for some six weeks. Likely home winner.

Sheffield Wednesday - Leeds 2.38 - 3.21

This local derby will be played in front a big crowd and the game will also be televised tonight. Fired up players for this fixture is an understatement. The odds are a bit surprising. Sheffield Wednesday started the season strongly, but they are now winless in eight games, while Leeds have improved on a steady basis. So all you Leeds backers have every reason to be happy with the odds on display. They say that the Sheffield squad has been affected by some kind of bug this week. Still no new absentees for the home side.
Personally I can see the home team playing a strong game. It is like beginning their season again and this could work in a positive way for D Jones’ team. Sheffield W have a decent squad and should do better than these last couple of weeks.
M Tonge is an injury doubt for Leeds and his midfield colleague R Austin will be assessed. He is just back from Jamaica. I expect goals in this game, say 3-4-5 goals, and both will be on the score sheet and that is why include this fixture on my betting list. Over game, in other words.

Crystal Palace - Millwall 2.17 - 3.57

Home win will be my choice. Amazing Crystal Palace form lately. Six league wins in seven games, three wins in the last eight days before the break. Their great asset W Zaha has been in phenomenal form and he played for the England U-21 team against Serbia. Zaha scored four goals in the last two league games. This two week break is the only slight concern. I mean you do not know really know where the teams are on the form barometer. At least Zaha should not be rusty.
D Henderson is the Millwall danger man, but their other strikers have been misfiring. A Keogh, one of their forwards, is an injury doubt and P Robinson will be missing in their defence. S Lowry, L Feeey and K Osbourne will all be available again.
There were more than 20.000 spectators when Palace defeated Burnley 4-3 and I guess that they will all be back for this derby game. Home win.

Charlton - Barnsley 2.16 - 3.60

Backing Charlton. Barnsley will once again be severely weakened defensively and I expect Charlton to take advantage of the Barnsley predicament. At the same time Charlton will be able to call on J Jackson, J Cook and D Green for this match. It definitely looks much better for the home side and they will get my vote in this match.

Osasuna - Real Betis 2.20 - 4.06

I backed Osasuna in their last home game and they will get my backing again. They defeated Levante 4-0, first Osasuna win of the season. Next they went to Bilbao for an away game. Osasuna lost the match 0-1. It was a rather cruel loss with Osasuna hitting the wood work a couple of times. Their much capped skipper Punal was back from his suspension coming on as a substitute and Damian and Ruben were also back to play. Their only casualty at the moment is defence man M Bertran.
Betis will be without their defender Mario, but worse their influential defensive midfielder Benat will also miss the match. Very likely home win.

Espanyol - Rayo Vallecano 2.00 - 4.18

Backing Espanyol this season has been a costly habit. They have yet to win a league game. I have not been chasing them, but this time they will get my support. I just noticed that their striker Sergio Garcia, out since August, will at last be able to make his come back in this game. They go together, S Garcia and Espanyol. D Colotto should be OK, but J Albin risks missing this game. V Alvarez, defender, will be suspended. Simao Sabrosa, Tejera and Stuani, all offensive Espanyol players, will also be available and Espanyol will be at their strongest, at least from the offensive perspective.
Rayo have to manage without their striker N Bille. Delibasic, playing for Montenegro in midweek, will most likely play upfront instead of Bille. Defence man J Amat is not allowed to play against his former club Espanyol. I will be a surprised man should Espanyol fail to win this fixture.

Atalanta - Siena 2.10 - 4.11

Manfredini and Stendardo will be available again for the home side, but Bellini, Biondini, and Ferri are still sidelined. Carmona could be back, starting on the bench. I saw Denis, the Atalanta striker, missing an unbelievable scoring chance away to Roma, when the score line was still 0-0. Roma looked short on confidence at that stage of the match and you never what would have happened, if Denis had done his job.
Ze Eduardo, the Siena forward, will be suspended for this game and Valiani will replace him playing together with Rosina behind Calaio. No Campagnolo in their defence. Maybe the home win.

Cagliari - Bologna 2.06 - 4.23

New coach and Cagliari picked up their first three pointer two weeks ago away to Torino. They won the match 1-0 and there was no doubt, they were the better side on the day. This they managed without both Pinilla and Cossu. Nene was back playing from the start. Now it looks like both Cossu and Pinilla will return for this match sending Nene to the bench. Defender Rosettini will be back from his suspension for this game, but he could find himself starting on the bench. No reason to change anything.
Gimenez and Antonsson have been struggling with injuries, but they should both be OK for this match and Antonsson will play from the start in the Bologna defence. Taider could be preferred to Kone behind Diamanti and Gilardino. 1X game.

Chievo - Fiorentina 3.21 - 2.50

Also the new Chievo coach started with a win, 2-1 at home to Sampdoria.
He was without both Pelissier and Luciano, but they will return for this match. Sardo, M Rigoni and Papp are out of this match.
Fiorentina look just fine. Who will join Jovetic this time? It does not really seem to matter, but it will probably be between L Toni and El Hamdaoui. Pizarro will be fit to play in the middle of the park. Also Aquilani is finally back in training. Although Fiorentina have mostly impressed this season they are 0-1-2 away from home. Their two losses have been by the odd goal and they are not easily beaten, that is for sure. X2 game.

Genoa - Roma 3.31 - 2.25

Could be that Genoa will start with three forwards in a 4-3-3 formation. Immobile and Vargas with Boriello in the middle, or they will just play with two, Borriello and Immobile. Rossi, Merkel and Ferronetti will not be available.
No Pjanic for Roma and according to the latest reports, both Totti and De Rossi are injury doubts for this fixture. I expect the duo to play. I like the odds on the home win and I will back Genoa and I will also back the over alternative.

Inter - Catania 1.60 - 6.66

The home side look alright, only missing the suspended Nagatomo and the injured Sneijder. Pereira or Obi will replace Nagatomo. Spolli, Catania defender, will be fit to play joining Legrottaglie in their central defence.
I will not make a case against the home win, but fact is, Inter have played better football away from home so far this season. It is bound to change and Catania are not known to win too many away games. Still this 1.60 will not do for me.

Juventus - Napoli 1.83 - 5.08

We can certainly look forward to this top of the table clash with both sides being able to send out their strongest line ups. Well, not entirely true, as the Juve keeper Buffon risks missing the match. Storari is ready to step in. Vucinic or Quagliarella will start.
If or when Juventus will lose a league game, I have not a clue, but I cannot really see them losing this match. They have such a big strong squad and it does not seem to matter which players will start or not, at least not in their front line.
Napoli have yet to concede an away goal and that is not the Napoli side that we have to come to know. Obviously they are going about their away fixtures in a different way this season, first and foremost keeping it tight at the back. I would pick the home win alternative, but this 1.83 is not good enough for this writer.

Lazio - Milan 2.50 - 3.18

With both Konko and Ederson available again the Lazio squad is at its fittest this season. Only Diakite and Radu remain sidelined. Also Milan are in quite good shape, physically that is, but they miss the suspended Ambrosini and the injured Robinho this weekend. Late set back as their keeper Abbiati will be missing with Amelia deputising.
You may say that Milan have potentially the stronger side, but at this moment I prefer backing Lazio. They have plenty of strong players on their midfield and Klose is the perfect front man. Giving my support to the home side.

Palermo - Torino 2.25 - 3.75

It is correct to say that Palermo have improved since Gasperini took charge of their affairs and they will definitely get my vote in this match. Squad wise they seem to be in perfect order basically only missing the injured A Hernandez.
Torino were surprisingly poor at home to Cagliari, but we must not forget that they are newcomers in Serie A this season. Darmian will serve a suspension this weekend. Could be that Bianchi and Sansone will be their central attackers. Backing the home win.

Parma - Sampdoria 2.25 - 3.96

The home side have defensive concerns ahead of this match. Both Lucarelli and Benalouane will be suspended this weekend and a third defender Zaccardo is not 100% fit at the moment but it looks like Zaccardo will play after all together with Paletta and Fideleff. Amauri upfront probably alongside Belfodil. Bibiany and Gobbi could play from the start on the wings instead of Ninis and Pabon. It is still an open question.
Defender Gastaldello will be suspended for Sampdoria and his colleague Obiang risks missing the match. Eder should be available again, but there is no guarantee that he will play from the start in their front line.
Parma are unbeaten in their home games and 2.25 on the home win are decent odds, but I am not happy with their weakened defence. Then again also the away side is weakened defensively. OK, the home win.

Udinese - Pescara 1.57 - 7.40

Looks like a home winner. The Pescara coach is searching for fresh faces, but for this game we can expect the same Pescara squad that has been on duty this season.
Udinese have almost a 100% fit squad. Basta, however, will not be fit to play and Pasqual is an injury doubt. Udinese must be expected to win this fixture.

Football picks 16/10/12 World Cup Qualification

Belarus - Georgia 2.15 - 4.00

Will it continue like this for Belarus? They have lost their three qualifying games, but at the same time their leading club Bate Borisov are excelling in the Champions League. How come? Losing away to France and losing at home to Spain look like normal results and their slender 0-1 loss away to Georgia was not much of an upset either and in reality nothing really strange has taken place. A Hleb was back for Belarus at home to Spain, but he could not stop the champions from winning the match 4-0. Georgia drew 1-1 away to ten man Finland in their recent qualifier. Before that they barely lost their home qualifier against Spain 0-1, with Spain scoring their goal late in the game. All well so far for Georgia, but I expect them to be on the losing side tomorrow. Likely home winner.

Spain - France 1.55 - 8.43

Banker as well? Well, there is this old respect for “les Bleus”, the French national side, but I have no major argument for any result but the home win. Pedro scored a hat trick for Spain last week in Minsk with Spain winning the match 4-0. Suffice it to say that Spain look close to unbeatable. Cabaye will be back on the French midfield for this match, Ribery will also return and Evra will most likely start in their defence again. All three were rested in a recent friendly game. Chantome, Diaby and Mavuba are on their injury list. Benzema from the start? Likely home winner, but I do not feel good about the odds.

Faroe Islands - Republic of Ireland 13.71 - 1.29

Why not the home win! Faroe Islands were on their way of defeating Sweden last week, but changing a couple of faces in the second half made it possible for Hamren’s Sweden to turn the game, winning the match 2-1. A certain Kacaniklic, playing for Fulham, made the difference. Anyway the Faroes are better than people like to think, especially on their own plastic turf. Eire were embarassed in front of 50.000 of their own fans by Germany 1-6 and this result only cemented my firm belief that they were by far the poorest side in the EURO tournament. Some positive piece of news for the Irish. Robbie Keane has travelled with the squad to the Islands. Backing the home win.

Slovakia - Greece 2.50 - 3.25

Tricky as hell this one! I do not really know where to place this Slovakian side. Are they totally Hamsik dependant, or what? Bakos and Holosko, their two strikers, are not going through the best of times. So far Slovakia have not done anything remarkable in this group, while Greece belong to the category of hard to beat sides. V Weiss has been declared fit to play for the home side and Greece will miss their suspended defender Malezas. The draw? OK!

Cyprus - Norway 4.57 - 1.95

According to reports it was a very much improved Norwegian side that deservedly managed a draw against the Swiss. Norway could have won the match, hitting the wood work late on in the game. Drillo’s team played smart defensive football and their dead ball situations caused problems for the home side. For this match they have to manage without their suspended midfielder H Nortveit. One of Hauger, Henriksen or Wolff Ekrem will be his replacement. Aloneftis, the Apoel winger, made a strong impression coming on as a second half substitute for Cyprus against Slovenia. (1-2 loss) He scored the Cypriotic goal and Cesar, the Slovenian defender, was red carded trying to stop Aloneftis. I should probably say something about the Cypriotic home strength, but I am not 100% certain that this is the case for this Cypriotic national side. Their leading clubs, yes. Still 4.57 is a big price, is it not?, but I will not back the home win.

Iceland - Switzerland 4.70 - 1.88

I do not know if it was the torrential rain, the soggy pitch, but fact is that Iceland deservedly defeated Albania in Tirana. Maybe it was almost like playing at home. This Icelandic side, coached by the experienced Lagerbäck, is probably their best ever, but I could not see them winning against Albania. Well organised, for sure, but there also some great individuals in their squad. The Tottenham midfielder Sigurdsson of course, captain Gunnarsson and my own favourite, their striker Finnbogasson. Unfortunately for Iceland the ever present, the all important A Gunnarsson will be suspended for this match. His midfield colleague H Danielsson will not be available either, but defence man S Ottesen will be back from his suspension. The Swiss passed the ball round with confidence at home to Norway, but they had constant problems dealing with the Norwegian long balls. Rather typical that the Fulham defender Hangeland scored the Norwegian goal from a corner. Football fever in Iceland? I should think so and there is every reason for the Swiss to tremble, should it be a cold and rainy evening tomorrow. Under normal circumstances I expect Switzerland to return home with the three points.

Albania - Slovenia 3.30 - 2.39

Should really Slovenia be the favourites? I do not think so. That is all I have to say, but I should perhaps mention that Slovenia will be without their suspended defender Cesar.

Ukraine - Montenegro 1.80 - 5.33

It was one way traffic for Ukraine away to Moldova. They dominated the match, but at the end of the day match the match ended in a score less draw. Their 1-1 draw away to England was a much better result, was it not? For Montengro Pavicevic will be back for his suspension. Vukinic and Jovetic will hopefully decide this match in favour of the Montenegrins. The outcome? Just think that the home win is underpriced.

Poland - England 4.42 - 2.00

Obraniak will be back in contention for the home side, but they will face this game without their captain Blaszczykowski. The B Dortmund midfielder is injured and his midfield colleague Polanski will also be missing. England will welcome back a host of players for this match. S Gerrard, G Johnson, J Defoe, J Lescott, A Cole and J Milner will all be available again, but T Walcott and F Lampard will not take part in this fixture. Poland were poor in their own EURO tornament, but they have a new coach these days and I should not be talking about Smuda’s Poland any more. I thought that Poland would lose away to Montenegro, but they managed a deserved 2-2 draw. X2 game, this one.

Macedonia - Serbia 4.00 - 2.12

Is not the home win over priced? Macedonia lost an evenly matched affair against Croatia (1-2) and surely Croatia are stronger than this Serbian side. I cannot really see Macedonia losing two home games in a week, but I am aware, this is not a very scientific approach. Serbia missed their chances in the first half against Belgium and this proved costly with Belgium in total control in the second half of the game. What can I say! Serbia look a bit wanting offensively, but alas, so does this Macedonian side. Their ace G Pandev will not play tomorrow and this piece of news makes it difficult to actually back the home win. Subotic could start in the Serbian defence, maybe Matic on their midfield. I have to skip this match from a betting perspective..

Italy - Denmark 1.53 - 8.05

In trouble every so often, but Italy have this great habit of winning almost all of their qualifying games. This was the case against Armenia, but at the end of the day Italy won the tricky away game 3-1. Buffon risks losing this match and in that case De Sanctis will be his replacement. Chiellini will start in their defence with his work singled out – stop Bendtner from scoring! Balotelli could be ready, or El Shaarawy will replace Giovinco alongside Osvaldo. Abate will most likely come in for Maggio in defence. The Danish forward A Cornelius will be suspended for this game and Jörgensen is out injured. The Danes have yet to perform at their highest level and they should have done better against ten man Bulgaria last week. (1-1) Depressing odds on the home win, that is all I know.

Czech Republic - Bulgaria 1.70 - 6.00

So Bulgaria have to play an away fixture after three home games on the bounce. Popov and Rangelow started upfront at home to Denmark, but it turned out to be a strange game, as Bulgaria had to play with ten men for an hour or so. This Bandalovski fellow will be suspended tomorrow. The Bulgarian offence does not impress me, but I could say the same about the Czech artillery. Still I expect the Czechs to win this match, or the 0-0 draw will be the result.

Romania - Netherlands 5.00 - 1.81

Three group games played and Romania have yet to concede a single goal. OK, winning against Estonia and Andorra was nothing special, but their win away to Turkey last week is a strong result every day of the week. Fantastic defence? Not really, R Rat is old, but still great, but the WBA defence man G Tamas is not even a regular for his club, Bourceanu a real fighter and so on. This will be the real test against Van Persie and his colleagues. Could be that the Romanian coach will make a couple of changes for this match. He is talking about exhausted players. Mutu could come in for Grozav, Chipciu could replace Stancu and so on. Van Persie, by the way, was rested at the week end, but he will be back playing upfront for Holland. Sneijder and Robben are sidelined at the moment. The Dutch have so many strong players, but Sneijder is always missed. I prefer the away win.

Hungary - Turkey 2.75 - 2.80

Yes, it certainly looks like Hungary no longer are the typical home side. Their win away to Estonia was their second away win on the trot. Turkey are struggling big time after yet another loss in a qualifying game. They looked quite toothless at home to Romania and I guess that their coach is hanging on the ropes. My intention was to back the home win, but with both Dzsudzsak and Juhasz suspended for Hungary I will stay away from this bet. Defence man Gokhan Gonul and M Topal are new on the Turkish injury list. No Yilmaz, no A Turan either. Turkey have to go for the three points, Hungary always play attacking football in their home games and my conclusion will be: over game!

EUROPE: World Cup - Qualification Prediction 12/10/2012

Finland - Georgia 1.91 - 4.91

Although the odds have gone down from 2.10 to 1.91 I still find the home win worth backing. I would have no problems backing Georgia at home to Finland, but that just about sums up international football. Home turf is mostly decisive.
Finland lost their last match 0-1 at home to France. They lacked the necessary quality to really threaten France, but I am pretty sure that the Finnish players will be facing this match in an entirely different, more confident mood. Only days after their loss against France an unchanged Finnish side defeated the Czech Republic in a friendly game away from home. Pukki scored their winning goal. Finland to win.

Republic of Ireland - Germany 8.50 - 1.45

It is almost depressing to say it, but I do not think that the Irish will have any chance against the Germans. Eire probably played the worst football in the EURO tournament, and they did not impress at all in their first qualifying game either. How then ended up winning away to Kazakhstan is still a mystery. Second best for 90 minutes they managed two highly unlikely injury time goals. G Whelan, St Ledger and K Doyle, all in action vs. Kazakhstan will miss tomorrow’s game along with the Sunderland winger McClean. Now their leading striker Robbie Keane will not make it either.
Germany have to manage without their suspended defence man P Lahm. Hummels and L Bender are on their injury list, but both Goetze and Podolskis should be OK to play. B Schweinsteiger will be back playing from the start. Very likely away win for Germany against this much weakened Irish side.

Greece - Bosnia 2.25 - 3.75

Top of the table clash with the away side, Bosnia looking in devastating form. Twelve goals against Latvia and Lichtenstein tells its own story. Easy to shine against mediocre opponents? Quite possible and we will find out after the 90 minutes in Greece. Ibisevic has maintained his excellent scoring form. I noticed that the Bosnian striker scored a couple for his German club at the weekend and also Dzeko look really sharp. The Roma midfielder Pjanic will not play.
I would never underestimate this hard to beat Greek side. You want an offensive side like Bosnia to win their matches, but football is not only about attacking, it is also about being smart and Greece are one of the smartest sides around. The odds are probably correct. There are rarely over games when Greece are involved, but I like to think that this will be one of them.

Switzerland - Norway 1.75 - 5.47

Earlier in the week there was 1.95 to be found on the home win. Switzerland are in a category of their own in their group, a very weak group, I must say. The Swiss have been lucky, no doubt about that, but make no mistake, the Swiss national team belongs to the most promising sides in Europe.
Two 2-0 wins for Switzerland, while Norway suffered a defeat away to Iceland, but, thanks to a last minute penalty, they managed to defeat Slovenia 2-1. I have said it before, this Norwegian side is not one of their vintage sides. All players are fit for the home side, but Norway will be without the injured B-H Riise and their striker Abdellaoue. Likely home winner.

Albania - Iceland 2.30 - 3.69

Backing the home win. Great odds! Iceland away from home? Give me a break!
OK, Lagerbäck’s Iceland are definitely more organised than previous versions, but they will most likely play ultra defensive football tomorrow and it is not working these days. You will almost always get punished and not to forget, Albania are quite a force in their home fixtures. In their last home qualifier they defeated Cyprus 3-1. Cani and Bogdani scored their last two goals entering the game as second half substitutes.
Iceland will once again have to manage without their injured striker Sightorsson. Add the suspended Ottesen and the injured forward Thorvaldsson. Albania will get my backing.

Serbia - Belgium 2.66 - 2.90

These days you will find the big stars in the Serbia defence, while their offensive line is more anonymous, or lacking the big profiles. I did not say that they look poor in their front line. It would be saying too much after their most recent 6-1 win against Wales.
Belgium, the talented Belgians, so often underperforming and underachieving. Quite frankly they have not been able to live up to expectations, not this far. I just love Chadli and Hazard, two of their likely starters upfront. Chadli, the Twente forward, is my latest favourite. Both Fellaini and Lukaku will miss this qualifier and Kompany and A Witsel are considered injury doubts. I expect at least Kompany to play. Best odds on the draw (3.28).

Macedonia - Croatia 5.50 - 1.80

A little more than a month ago Croatia won their home game against Macedonia 1-0. So maybe the home win is slightly overpriced this time? Not necessarily. Croatian aces like Jelavic, Mandzukic and L Modric are in much better form at this moment and it will be tough for the home side handling the Croatian offence. Yes, and Macedonia have to make their own offensive efforts this time in front of their own people and they will always be in danger of being punished. I would settle for the away win, but the odds will not do.

Wales - Scotland 2.87 - 2.70

The Welsh are definitely playing for their existence. 1-8 after two qualifying games they must win this match, or they can forget about Brazil. OK, I know, they know, they will not be going to Brazil 2014, but it is about keeping their dream alive. No C Bellamy and that is a disaster for Wales, but G Bale and A Ramsey will play. Joe Ledley is available again.
D Fletcher, the Man United midfielder, and S Fletcher will finally play for Scotland again. That is great news for the Scottish, because the Sunderland striker S Fletcher is one of the hottest on the island at the moment. S Naismith, J Rhodes, G Hanley and R Snodgrass will miss this fixture, but S Brown hopes to play and K Commons has been recalled. X2 game.

Russia - Portugal 2.87 - 2.80

Both teams on maximum points, but Russia have been the impressive side. Portugal have just gone through the motions against Azerbaijan and Luxembourg and I am perfectly aware that we will see a stronger more determined Portugese side in this match. Still Capello’s Russia seem to be in great form winning 4-0 away to Israel just like that. Russia are always at their best in qualifying games and then something weird usually takes place in the actual tournaments.
Pepe and Ronaldo are major doubts for Portugal. It looks worse for Pepe, but Ronaldo, he is like Messi, they are always playing. A shoulder problem may harm him, but he is sure to line up. Capello will probably lead Russia to a win tomorrow. Talk about a winning coach. Backing the home win.

Bulgaria - Denmark 3.00 - 2.61

This new winning Bulgarian side up against one my favourite teams in the EURO tournament. My choice will be the away win. I say winning side about Bulgaria, because I regard their 2-2 draw with Italy like a winning result and they followed up this positive result by defeating Armenia 1-0. This will be their third home fixture on the bounce. Why it is like that, I cannot say. Bulgaria lack true strikers. Berbatov remains outside the national side and could be that their offensive midfielder Popov will start upfront. Minev, Gargorov and Dyakov, all starters against Italy, will this match along with Zanev and Sarnov.
Bendtner will be back for Denmark. He was suspended when they played out a 0-0 draw at home to the Czechs. I have not seen any football from Bendtner this season and surely, he will not be in top shape for this match. It is an open question, who will start? Bendtner or A Cornelius. The left back position is also undecided. Denmark, my favourite Scandinavian side, will get my vote, with or without Bendtner.

Turkey - Romania 1.75 - 5.50

I guess that Turkey ought to win this game, but I do not know if I am prepared to actually back this 1.75 on the home win. Sahin, Alda Turan, H Altintop, they will all play on the Turkish midfield and upfront we will find Burak or Bulut.
Torje and Stancu, there you have two Romanian offensive talents, while I am not so sure about the status of Mutu and Marica. They have not played much this season, although I have noticed that Mutu has just played a couple of games for his new club Ajaccio. Home win, I guess.

Estonia - Hungary 3.48 - 2.38

I will give Hungary a new chance. It was a poor decision to suggest that they would be able to defeat Holland in their last qualifying game, but at least the over suggestion in that match was spot on. Hungary are better than Estonia, or should I say, they have a superior potential, and without a doubt also the stronger individuals. Historically Hungary have been poor travellers, but it is about to change, or that is at least what I think.
Estonia have faced Romania and Turkey and they are 0-5 after two games. The rather important Jääger will be suspended for this match. Zoltan Gera and his Hungary will get my support.