Monday, October 22, 2012

EUROPE : Champions League - Group Stage Prediction



Shaktar Donetsk - Chelsea 2.50 - 3.00

Impressive Shaktar season this far. They have won all their twelve domestic league games and they were the better side in Italy drawing 1-1 with Juventus.
Chelsea won the Champions League last season thanks to some stubborn defending and all the luck in the world, but I have to say that this version of Chelsea is so much more attractive, hopefully as strong as well. Their offensive display against Tottenham was just magnificent. J Terry will be back for Chelsea and F Lampard as well. What a game to look forward to and I do not think that Chelsea will be on the losing side.

Barcelona - Celtic 1.09 - 29.00

Missing Busquets, D Alves, Pique and Puyol will not matter for the home side. They will of course defeat this Celtic side. Saying that Celtic have played much better football so far than this writer had expected. S Brown, J Forrest, G Samaras and K Commons, all rested at the weekend, will travel to Barcelona, but Lassad is ruled out of this game. Even with a half hearted Barca display tomorrow they are still on another planet than the Celts.

Manchester Utd - Braga 1.36 - 10.00

Smart defensively, a rather typical hard to beat Portugese side, this Braga side. Last season Man United could not defeat Benfica at Old Trafford and it proved costly with United missing out on the play offs. Benfica last season, were probably better than this year’s version of Braga, but I would not call them much better. Offensively United look great this season, but their defence has similar problems as last year. Home win, 2-1 or 3-1.

Nordsjälland - Juventus 9.50 - 1.40

This Danish side is playing some nice football and they often dominate the ball possession. They did away to Shaktar for instance. At home to Chelsea, 0-1 down, they were close to finding an equaliser on several occasions, finally hitting the wood work, but after the second Chelsea goal they gave up, or fell apart.
In my opinion they can cause problems for Juventus and I would not be surprised to see Juve underestimating Nordsjälland tomorrow. I have nothing negative to say about Juventus. They win their games almost like machines, wearing their opponents down in the end. Buffon, Vucinic and De Ceglie will all be back for Juventus. A warning is in order in this fixture, meaning that 1.40 is no good.

Bate Borisov - Valencia 3.90 - 2.15

The Swedes drawing 4-4 against Germany, 0-4 down with half an hour to go, was the surprise of the season so far, but the two 3-1 wins for Bate in this group are close. They won deservedly both against Lille and Bayern and here they are outsiders again.
Banega was back for Valencia at the weekend. His side was struggling at home to Atletic Bilbao, but thanks to two late goals they were able to win the match. Well the main reason was perhaps the fact that Atletic were down to ten men. Anyway important league win for Valencia and for this match they will be able to call on the important Feghouli again. Mathieu is out injured.
Valencia have been warned and all that, but I cannot back this 2.15 on the away win. Valencia are not known to travel well in Europe.

Lille - Bayern Munich 6.75 - 1.60

There was no improvement to be seen when Lille managed a late, most undeserved point against Bordeaux at the weekend. S Kalou and Martin were back from injuries, but Lille offered once again a very unconvincing performance. Debuchy, Gueye and Mavuba will miss out tomorrow and defender Basa is also in danger of missing this match.
Bayern are still missing Robben, Van Buyten and M Gomez, but C Pizarro will be back. Bayern look just great, at least on the domestic front. If nothing else I should think that their loss against Bate will make them extra motivated for this game and I cannot really see Lille causing an upset tomorrow. OK, maybe Lille will be able to play a more relaxed game as under dogs, under no real pressure and 1.60 on the away win can never be backable odds. Goals? Yes, I think so.

Spartak Moscow - Benfica 2.95 - 2.70

I always had the feeling that Spartak are making it difficult for themselves in Europe, especially in their home fixtures, but the facts still surprised me. Only one home win in Europe for Spartak in fifteen home fixtures. I do not have to talk about their synthetic pitch any more, that is for sure. At the weekend Spartak were in the lead away to league leaders Anzhi, but a red card proved costly with Spartak losing the match 1-2.
Welliton, probably their best striker, was back playing from the start. I do not know whether he will play tomorrow or not, but his colleague Emenike is considered a major injury doubt. Insaurralde, the defender, will be suspended tomorrow. Spartak have keeper problems and we will most likely see their third choice keeper between their sticks tomorrow.
Benfica remain unbeaten in the Portugese league (4-2-0) but I have not seen anything special from them this season. They were happy playing out a 0-0 draw at Celtic, as expected they had no real chance against Barcelona and I should think that a draw would please the Portugese also in tomorrow’s game. Lima, Cardozo and Rodrigo are their offensive options. X2 game.

Galatasaray - Cluj 1.75 - 5.50

Trusting this Turkish side is close to impossible. They were deservedly beaten by Braga in their last group game, but they impressed against Man United at Old Trafford. I backed Galatasaray away to Glencirbirligi last week. I backed them at half time when they were 0-1 down. They scored two second half goals and I started to count the winnings, but then they conceded two goals in one minute. The match ended in a 3-3 draw and it was a typical Gala fixture.
Cluj have poor form with two straight league defeats in the Romanian league. One of their leading offensive players, Sougou is in danger of missing this match, but he has travelled to Istanbul. Likely home win.

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