Saturday, April 6, 2013

Serie A Betting Analysis 07/04/2013



Inter - Atalanta 1.75 - 5.50

No better, no worse than usual, but Inter won their difficult away game at Sampdoria 2-0. Handanovic saved them in the first half, Kovacic played a great game, but no one was better than Palacio. Inter and Palacio had two open scoring chances and Palacio took them both. He has been truly magnificent for Inter and it is a huge surprise for this writer. Cambiasso will return to the Inter squad but the latest news tell us that Palacio is ruled out of this game.
Del Grosso will probably be OK for Atalanta, but they will be without the suspended Consigli and Lucchini and the injured Moralez. Consigli, their first choice keeper, and they have yet to decide, who will replace him? Livaja will probably start behind their striker Denis. Not so sure about the home win, now that Palacio is missing.

Catania - Cagliari 1.99 - 4.49

Spolli and Potenza will return for the home side, but their striker Barrientos will be suspended for this match. Castro will be his replacement. Lodi, the influential Lodi, will also miss this game and Salifu will come in instead. No Almiron either.
Cagliari count on Nene to return, but their play maker Cossu will sit out a suspension. Great odds or not, but it is very difficult going against Catania down in Sicily, this time, every time. 1X game.

Udinese - Chievo 1.84 - 5.35

Di Natale missed a second half penalty at the weekend and Udinese had to be content with a 0-0 draw with Bologna. Udinese will most likely be unchanged, but add Pinzi to their squad.
Chievo have to manage without the suspended Andreolli, Drame, Cofie and Dainelli. Sounds like trouble? Not really. Acerbi and Jokic will start in their defence and Hetemaj in the middle of the park. Home win, I guess.

Napoli - Genoa 1.39 - 11.10

De Sanctis, the excellent Napoli keeper will return for this match. Cavani came good again for his team last week coming on as a second half substitute scoring a couple of late goals.
Bertolacci will play again for Genoa, Vargas as well, but defence man Manfredini will be suspended. Quite possible that Immobile will start instead of Borriello. There are more important games ahead for Genoa. Likely home win, but too short odds.

Roma - Lazio 2.00 - 4.11

Extremely disappointing Roma display away to Palermo last week. I have not a clue why, but a similar effort on Monday and they will have no chance in this hot derby game. Osvaldo will be suspended for this fixture, Piris as well, but Marquinhos, defender, will be back in contention here.
Lazio, down to ten men, lost 0-2 to Fenerbahce. We are waiting for Klose and Mauri to play from the start again. Why not in the derby? I hope so. Ledesma and Biava could also be back, but Dias remains on their injury list. I am going for the better odds. The outsider.

Fiorentina - Milan 2.88 - 2.68

The home side has to manage without their injured key player Jovetic and their suspended defender G Rodriguez. Mati Fernandes is also ruled out of this game. Toni will most likely replace Jovetic joining Ljajic and Cuadrado upfront. It looks like both Pazzini and Boateng will return for Milan.
Amazing Milan run and at this very moment they are third in Serie A six points ahead of Fiorentina. The Fiorentina home strength is well known, one loss this season, but without S Jovetic, will they be able to defeat Milan? Well, Jovetic has mostly enjoyed a disappointing season, but I like it, when he is playing. X2 game.

Sampdoria - Palermo 2.12 - 4.20

You tell me what happened in Palermo last week. Roma were never close, it was almost like they all of a sudden were without a winning chance against Palermo. Was it the start of an amazing come back from Palermo, or did Roma offer the Sicilians the game on a plate? Who knows, but Palermo are still winless away from home (0-6-9). Sorrentino, the Palermo keeper, is in danger of missing this game. In that case Benussi will come in and Munoz will be suspended. Donati will most likely replace Munoz in the Palermo defence.
Eder will be back in the Sampdoria front line, but Poli will sit out a suspension. Sampdoria dominated the first half against Inter, creating a couple of great scoring chances, but their second half was not much to write home about. They just ran out of ideas and maybe Palermo can have their first away win of the season.

Siena - Parma 2.48 - 3.30

Definitely more at stake for Siena, but they have mostly disappointed in recent home games in situations like this one. They seem to struggle under extreme pressure and there is nothing strange with that. Away from home they have recently defeated Palermo and they drew at Genoa at the weekend.
Parma will have their midfielder Valdes back for this game. As Parma are 2-3-10 away from home one may argue that the home win over priced, but I hesitate.

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