Friday, December 28, 2012

Bet Study 29 December


Arsenal - Newcastle 1.50 - 7.68

The Arsenal vs. West Ham fixture was postponed and the Arsenal players will come fresh and in high spirits after their recent back to back wins. Rather strong favourites, in my opinion. Both Giroud and Rosicky will be available again and the Arsenal squad is surprisingly fit for this time of the season.
Newcastle will have Tiote back for this game, but they have to manage without two of their starting players vs. Man United. Anita and M Williamson will not be available and no Jonas Gutierrez, Cabaye or Ben Arfa either. Home winner.

Aston Villa - Wigan 2.39 - 3.60

Definitely the away win. I should not talk about luck or bad luck, but Wigan have played better than their results reflect lately. A dubious penalty won the game for Arsenal vs Wigan and on Boxing Day Wigan matched Everton all the way at Goodison Park. Time for a three pointer tomorrow.
Villa have lost 0-12 in their last two games and there is every possibility that their young players have lost their self esteem and confidence. It is good to have to some old heads in the team in cases like this, but there are none in the present Villa squad. It looks like the Villa defender N Baker will miss this game. They already miss a host of players including A Weimann, Agbonlahor and N’Zogbia.
Wigan can always defeat Villa, but their winning chances will be better than usual tomorrow. Backing Wigan.

Everton - Chelsea 3.00 - 2.56

Backing Chelsea. In form, confident, tight at the back again, Chelsea are strong enough to win this fixture. Squad wise they look perfect with Ramirez back for this game and only J Terry missing at the moment.
Everton will have to manage without the suspended Fellaini again and this time D Gibson will probably be missing due to a hamstring injury. Away win.

Fulham - Swansea 2.22 - 3.60

It is just not working for Fulham. One win in their last eleven games after their 1-1 home draw with Southampton. Fit again B Ruiz came on as a second half substitute, Berbatov and Rodallega started upfront, Sidwell was back from his suspension and Fulham should have done better against Southampton. B Ruiz will start tomorrow, but D Duff will probably miss out again.
Quite expectedly Swansea were slightly subdued at Reading (0-0) after their big game against Man United. Coach Laudrup was happy with the point, but losing their top striker Michu to an injury was a downer. Michu will miss tomorrow’s match. Advantage Fulham, for sure.

Manchester Utd - W B A 1.33 - 11.00

With Giggs and Scholes starting in their midfield and W Rooney absent I could not see Man United defeating Newcastle on Boxing Day. In true United way Ferguson’s men found a way of winning the match, but OK, also Newcastle missed important players. Rooney will miss this game, but A Young, P Jones and D Wehlbeck will probably all be back and time for Cleverley and /or D Fletcher to start in their midfield. Vidic to start again.
WBA are a top six side and this 1.33 on the home win is way too short.
Defenders J Olsson and Popov as well as Mulumbu are all major doubts for this difficult fixture. Will they be rested ? Just my hunch, games come thick and fast and maybe next game, at home to Fulham, is more winnable for WBA. I expect United to start with a stronger midfield in this game, but at the end of the day, this 1.33 represents poor value.

Norwich - Manchester City 6.78 - 1.60

Grant Holt was fit to play for Norwich at home to Chelsea, but they were not really close. It was certainly not a great game, but Chelsea were mostly in control, if you can be in control 1-0 up. I do not think Norwich have gone out of form. They are at best a mid-table side despite their recent great run. The Norwich coach is talking about rotating his squad for this game. Definitely out is the injured defender S Whittaker.
V Kompany was back for Man City at Sunderland and they fielded their best offensive players, but to no avail. One injury time goal at home to Reading and now no goal against Sunderland and it is dead right to name City a crisis club at the moment. Where is their wing play? Many ask that question. Nasri and Clichy will be back in contention tomorrow.
Mancini has to win this game, it is as simple as that, and Man City have had very few problems dealing with Norwich these last couple of seasons. Away win, but questionable odds.

Q P R - Liverpool 4.26 - 2.00

R Green, the QPR keeper, did not have the best of days on Boxing Day against WBA and I should think that J Cesar will stand between the QPR sticks in this Sunday fixture. R Nelsen, defender, was sick, replaced by A Ferdinand, but Nelsen will hopefully be back for this game. It looks like Park will be missing again.
Liverpool took an early lead at Stoke, but then the fun was over for Rodgers’ team. They were outfought, outmuscled and well beaten. Bound to happen again. The present Liverpool side can be a bit soft. Evens on Liverpool will not do and I am closer to backing a hard working QPR side in this match.

Reading - West Ham 2.95 - 2.60

Late on at home to Swansea Reading pushed for the win, but for the first hour they were happy keeping the 0-0 result. This is of course another winnable game for Reading, but it has become almost impossible trusting them to win in this league. I mean they faced Swansea at the best of times , but failed, and tomorrow they will be up against a well rested West Ham side. No game for West Ham on Boxing day and their striker C Cole will be allowed to play. I prefer the away win alternative.

Stoke - Southampton 1.83 - 5.00

Great win for Stoke against Liverpool (3-1) and the odds on the home win must have made every Stoke backer extremely happy. Only the bookies know why Liverpool were the favourites.
Stoke impressed and they are playing their best football ever at the moment. To see Kenwyne Jones playing upfront again and enjoying himself is a special treat. I thought he was in the cold forever, but coach Pulis knew better. M Upson and R Shotton will replace the suspended Stoke defenders R Shawcross and G Cameron in this game.
Southampton deserved their 1-1 draw at Fulham. They were the more ambitious side in the second half and Fulham can have no complaints.
It would be foolish to say that Stoke will not defeat this Southampton side tomorrow. No it is about the odds. It was more exciting and, as it turned out, more gratifying to back Stoke as outsiders against Liverpool.

Sunderland - Tottenham 3.94 - 2.12

Not for the first time Sunderland defeated Man City at the Stadium of Light and I have to say I was rather pleased. Did they deserve the 1-0 win? Well, Man City have acute scoring problems and I do not give much for their dominance in the match. Sunderland missed defender O’Shea against City, but he should be back for this game. His defensive colleague Danny Rose will not play tomorrow against his parent club.
I have just seen Tottenham totally dominate the first half against Aston Villa without finding the net, but Defoe scored their opening goal in the 56th minute of the second half. Then G Bale scored three and it was men against boys at the Villa Park. C Dempsey was not fit to play for Spurs. He is an injury doubt again, but Dembele should be OK.
Sunderland look confident again and this 2.12 on the away win is a bit on the short side. Still my choice will be the away win.

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