Saturday, November 24, 2012

Bet Study 24Nov


Aston Villa - Arsenal 5.02 - 1.74

They do not fear Arsenal like they once did. I am referring to teams like Villa, Norwich and some ten other mid table or close to the bottom sides. That is a fact and it is definitely tougher these days for Arsenal to visit places like the Villa Park.
Villa were quite good at home to Man United, they were outclassed by Man City last week and I guess it will be like that for this young side. They will mix good and bad displays, but I do not think that it will plain sailing for Arsenal in this game.
T Walcott was missing in midweek when Arsenal comfortably dismissed of Montpellier in the Champions League. Both Gervinho and K Gibbs were back in their squad. Walcott will be missing again. Is he not too injury prone, to be real? Arsenal played a decent game in midweek and dare I say, they are on their way up in form. Leaning towards the away win, but 1.74 do not make my day.

Chelsea - Manchester City 2.63 - 2.83

Di Matteo could not handle the transition. Chelsea won the Champions league thanks to their defensive football. This season they were supposed to play attacking football again and with Hazard and Oscar in their team together with J Mata this should not be a problem. In theory yes, but it has not worked and Di Matteo finally picked a side without a proper striker in midweek against Juventus. He was desperate, I guess, and his Chelsea were more or less outplayed by Juventus.
Benitez will now coach Chelsea. He never was my favourite, but he knows the Premiership, he is Spanish and he could be the right man to get Torres going again. First of all he has to tighten up the Chelsea defence.
Man City remain winless in the Champions league, but at the same time they are undefeated in the Premiership after twelve rounds of football. Squad wise they look just fine at the moment, the possible Kompany injury aside, but they started poorly against Real Madrid earlier this week. Mancini changed the formation, City improved and drew the match 1-1.
Losing his first match is not an option for Benitez and I can see Chelsea playing a cautious game on Sunday first and foremost avoiding the loss. A draw would be OK for City as well. The draw.

Everton - Norwich 1.50 - 7.93

Suddenly I realised that Everton are not winning as frequently as I was imagining. Fact is that they have only won one of their last six league games (1-4-1). Their opponents tomorrow, Norwich have won three of their last six matches. Everton have started this season exceptionally well for a traditionally slow starting side, but it is nothing to scream about. They are for example one point ahead of the newcomers West Ham. Their key player Fellaini will be suspended for tomorrow’s game. Hopefully K Mirallas will return from injury.
Norwich deservedly defeated a luke warm United side, but they remain winless in their away fixtures (0-3-3). I have no problems accepting Everton as rather big favourites, but surely this 1.50 on the home win is way too short.

Manchester Utd - Q P R 1.22 - 17.44

Poor United away to Norwich and no one was poorer than Van Persie. Why coach Ferguson chose to play with R Giggs for the whole of the game beats me. I guess Sir Alec was especially pleased to see Scholes, Giggs and Carrick all on the pitch in the second half.
It will never work. Poor choices, but United missed Rooney and his absence usually complicate matters for United. He is expected back for this fixture. C Smalling will also be available, but not yet J Evans.
Much to my surprise M Hughes is still the QPR boss after their horror show against Southampton. From bad to worse in their most important game so far. M’ Bia will return to the QPR squad, but they have lost B Zamora to a long term injury. Late news - Mark Hughes has just been sacked!!!! Home winner.

Southampton - Newcastle 2.50 - 3.04

There was nothing flukey about the Southampton win against QPR. They were clearly the better side and it looks like their coach is right, saying that their defence has improved these last couple of weeks. In their last home game, vs. Swansea (1-1), Southampton were also the much stronger side and my choice in this match between the south and north will be a win for the south.
Newcastle are missing quite a few of their most important players, Cabaye, Coloccini and Ben Arfa, and they also risk being without P Cisse and Sh. Ameobi. Newcastle also played in the Europa League last night(1-1). Definitely backing Southampton.

Stoke - Fulham 2.20 - 3.64

Advantage Stoke in this game. Fulham lost their defensive ace Hangeland to a red card last week, they also lost Kacaniklic and B Ruiz to injuries and all three will miss this game. One piece of good news, as C Baird will be back to play.
Stoke will be able to call on D Whitehead again. Defender A Wilkinson is touch and go with R Shotton ready to step in. Stoke are 2-3-0 at the Britannia Stadium and they have so far only conceded one goal there with Man City scoring an equaliser. I can see Fulham, missing their tall defender Hangeland, struggling against P Crouch and my call will be the home win.

Sunderland - W B A 2.54 - 3.03

The Hangeland dismissal certainly made it possible for Sunderland to grab the three points against Fulham. The win was absolutely essential for Sunderland and what made the win even sweater was the goal scored by Sessegnon. He is their best offensive asset, but he has been so quiet, so off key this season, but I venture to suggest that this goal was the right tonic for the Frenchman. Better days ahead for him and it means better days for Sunderland. C Gardner will return from his suspension for this game.
Lukaku will be back for WBA, defence man McAuley as well, but they will be without the important Mulumbu. Keeper Foster remains sidelined. Placed fourth in the league table WBA are enjoying an outstanding season, but away from home they have not really excelled (1-2-2 this far). My choice will be the home win.

Swansea - Liverpool 3.59 - 2.15

In the cup Swansea defeated a much changed Liverpool side at Anfield. Swansea had also made some changes in their line up, but it is correct to say that their side was closer to being their best than that of Liverpool.
Swansea can beat Liverpool again. They almost always play their best football down in Wales and they will come full of confidence for this fixture after their away win at Newcastle last week. They hope to have their midfielder Ki back tomorrow.
You may say that the Liverpool coach will have a clear advantage on Sunday, when he will be facing his former side, but I would not make too much of this. Both teams play the passing game and that is no secret and players like Michu, P Hernandez and de Guzman did not play for Swansea last season.
Liverpool drew 2-2 with Young Boys at Anfield last night and most of their leading players were involved at some stage of the match. The odds on the home win interest me.

Tottenham - West Ham 1.67 - 6.18

While the Hangeland dismissal can be discussed no one in his right frame of mind can say that Adebayor should have stayed on the pitch. His tackle was absolutely stupid and reckless and rarely has a player been as instrumental in his team’s downfall that day as Adebayor.
Tottenham were cruising before the Adebayor incidence, leading 1-0 and as an Arsenal fan I had every reason to be worried. 11 vs. 11 Tottenham looked strong and there is no reason to question their form. What is a worry, however, is their competitive game last night against Lazio and it is no guarantee that all the Spurs players will be in top shape on Sunday. Defoe and Lennon started on the bench vs. Lazio along with fit again Dembele. All thee will be in contention for this match, but Adebayor will be suspended.
A bit stretched by injuries, West Ham are doing an excellent job, but they could use for instance M Jarvis for this derby game. Some strong wing play can be needed here.
Although the West Ham defence has played some strong games lately I am not ready to trust their present back four. Likely home win in this derby, say 3-1, but should one be satisfied with this 1.67?

Wigan - Reading 1.91 - 4.39

B Watson, the ever present Wigan defender, broke a leg last week, his defensive colleague G Caldwell suffered an injury as well and together with Alcaraz, Mc Arthur and Crusat they will not be available tomorrow.
Reading won their first game of the season last week. Not that much of a surprise, but what surprises me the most is the Pogrebnyak absence. Is he out in the cold, or what?
I am sure the Wigan boss Martinez is saying to his players: time to win a league game again, but I only trust Wigan in their traditional late season rally. The upset!

Derby - Birmingham 2.25 - 3.42

What is the problem with Derby? Why are they so one sided? Terrific home side, with only one home defeat this season, but so often disappointing on their travels. After back to back defeats at Millwall and Crystal Palace I expect Derby to bounce back tomorrow. They usually do and they often do it in style.
Birmingham strike me as an erratic side. You never know what will happen next, when they are involved. Every so often their defence is like a cheese, full of holes and then next week they manage to keep it tight. They are stretched defensively with their left back D Murphy their latest defensive casualty. Fortunately for Birmingham C Davies could be back tomorrow.
L Lita has returned to Swansea and Birmingham seem to rely on M King and N Zigic for goals at the moment. Derby to win and the fixture looks like an over game.

Leeds - Crystal Palace 3.06 - 2.50

I will not leave Crystal Palace alone this week either. Why should I? At the moment they are the strongest side in the Championship and there are no signs of an imminent drop in form for Holloway’s team. “Best side we have met this season” words from the Derby boss last week after their 0-3 loss vs. C Palace. No suspensions, no new injuries lessen their chances tomorrow.
Leeds, winless in seven games, miss the suspended duo L Varney and J Pearce, but they will have M Brown back to play. The Leeds coach Warnock has been around for a while and he is perfectly aware of the need to strengthen his squad, but for the moment Leeds are just a normal, hard working, but limited Championship side. In time for this match J Thomas and A Tate have joined Leeds. Two excellent signings at this Championship level and I guess that the Leeds chances have slightly improved. Backing Crystal Palace.

Real Zaragoza - Celta Vigo 2.21 - 3.56

Backing the home team. They lost to Barcelona 1-3 last week, but won 5-3 at home to La Coruna the week before. H Postiga, their leading scorer, started on the bench against Barcelona, but I take it for granted that he will start tomorrow, although their coach has plenty of options at the moment. Defence man G Loovens will not be fit to play.
C Vigo have played six away games and they have lost them all. It is starting to get at them, I am sure, but they have only lost one home fixture. Both their central defenders Cabral and A Tunez will play together again and a third defender R Lago will also be available for this match. Natxo is also OK. Over game and home win will be my two calls.

Atalanta - Genoa 1.86 - 5.07

Important Cigarini will be suspended for the home side. Cazzola will be his replacement in the middle of the park. Defence man Peluso will return to their defence.
Genoa played a strong second half in the derby, but it was too late, 0-2 down after a clueless first half display. So far their coach has only tasted defeats, but he is still their coach.
Vargas and Jankovic/Bertolacci will probably play on their midfield instead of Antonelli and Tozser. An upset here? Why not, but I cannot really motivate my choice.

Cagliari - Napoli 3.05 - 2.61

Strong Cagliari point away to Inter. Sau scored both their goals. Defender Astori will be suspended this weekend and he will be replaced by fit again Ariaudo. Nene will be available.
No Cavani for Napoli and one has to look at this game with new eyes. Napoli fielded a much changed side in midweek away to AIK (2-1 win). I do not see Cagliari losing this game.

Chievo - Siena 2.15 - 4.03

Six pointer affair and the home side will miss the suspended Sardo and Hetemaj plus the injured duo Papp and Frey. Fit again Cesar will play in their central defence alongside Dainelli. Cofie could start in the middle and Luciano, Thereau and Pelissier upfront again.
Ze Eduardo could possibly return to the Siena squad, but they will probably field an unchanged side on Sunday. I have no strong opinion, but I could say something about the odds on the home win. Some value there.

Milan - Juventus 3.55 - 2.35

Mexes, of all people, did the impossible against Anderlecht. The defender emulated the Ibrahimovic goal, but Mexes did not hit an empty goal like the Swede. The keeper was very much in the goal trying to stop his overhead kick. So basically the Mexes goal was even better than Ibra’s. And the Frenchman is a defender. Milan won 3-1 against Anderlecht and they look a bit improved. There are question marks, however, concerning their present defence and they may suffer against this strong Juventus side. Milan are playing with a rather strange looking defence, including Mexes, and that is a fact. Pato will not be fit to play along with Abate and Bonera and Ambrosini has not recovered for this match.
Talk about defence. It looks like Juventus will be without the injured Chiellini for this game. He will be assessed later on and Caceres is ready to play instead. My choice has to be the away win.

Palermo - Catania 2.62 - 3.14

Hot Sicilian derby game and these days Catania are the stronger side. Palermo were already hot last week, too hot, losing three red carded players away to Bologna. Ujkani, their keeper, will be replaced by Benussi and Rios or Viola will come in for Barreto. Their third suspended player is Labrin, but he is mostly used as a substitute. Miccoli will return and Palermo will be alright for this match.
Biagianti will be missing for Catania. Bergessio, forward, is a major injury doubt and he could be replaced by Doukara. Palermo, despite their struggling season, have only lost one home game and Catania have yet to win away from home. The draw will be my choice, but my favourites are Catania.

Parma - Inter 3.15 - 2.50

Bibiany will return to the home squad, defence man Zaccardo as well, but they lose their midfielder Parolo to a suspension. Ninis or Acquah will be his replacement. Valdes is a doubt with Musacci on stand bye. No Cassano for Inter, no Gargano and no Guarin and that is about it. Away to Rubin Inter fielded second choices and we can forget about their display in Russia (0-3). Milito missed an open goal at home to Cagliari, but they conceded two goals and they should have no complaints. X2 game.

Pescara - Roma 6.30 - 1.57

New Pescara coach and he is of course optimistic about his new team’s chances. Unfortunately he has to manage without three suspended players, Zanon, Capuano and Cascione. Colucci and Blasi, among others, remain sidelined. Weiss will probably recover and Bjarnason could replace their captain Cascione.
Roma have lost one of their strikers, Lamela to an injury and he will be replaced by Lopez or Destro. Burdisso will be back from his suspension, but De Rossi will not be available. Bradley or Tachtsidis from the start in the middle. Roma kept a clean sheet against Torino. A big step in the right direction for Zeman’s new Roma, at least in my opinion. Likely away win, but depressing odds.

Sampdoria - Bologna 2.31 - 3.63

After an endless losing run Sampdoria are back on track after their win in the derby. They will once again miss the injured Maxi Lopez, Eder, Pozzi and Berardi and Da Costa will sit out a suspension.
Taider will not play for Bologna, with Guarente his replacement and Motta will come in for Garics. Bologna defeated Palermo 3-0 last week and their three forwards Gilardino, Gabbiadini and Diamanti scored one goal each. My choice will be the away win.

Torino - Fiorentina 3.30 - 2.50

Looking for the 0-0 draw against Roma earlier this week? Yes, that is what Torino were looking for. Only three Serie A sides have conceded less goals than Torino and I could see why at the Olympic Stadium. Take away their crazy 5-1 win against Atalanta and Torino have only scored eight goals in twelve league games.
Jovetic could be back for Fiorentina, but the decision will be made later on. Pizarro will not play in their midfield this time due to a suspension and Olivera will replace him. X2 game.

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