Saturday, April 20, 2013

ITALY : Serie A Predictions 20/04/2013


Genoa   -  Atalanta     2.03  -  4.26
I have to say, I was not impressed at all by Genoa in the derby. They are playing poorly these days, but maybe their three experienced defenders will be able to save them at the end of the day. In fact Genoa could play with four defenders with Moretti the addition.
Bovo will return for this game, but Genoa lose both Borriello and Vargas to suspensions.  We will probably find Floro Flores and Bertolacci in their offensive line. Antonelli will come in for Vargas. Important Kucka will play.
Atalanta have one prolific scorer in their side and it is their Brazilian, Denis. He will be suspended for this match, Raimondi and Carmona as well, but their two midfielders Cigarini and Biondini will be available again. Fit again Moralez will most likely back up Livaja upfront.
So both sides will be without their front runners. My choice will be the home win.
Napoli   -   Cagliari     1.48   -   7.99
The home side will have to manage without their suspended goal keeper De Sanctis. Also Campagnaro will be missing. Rosati and Gamberini will be their replacements.
Cagliari welcome back Nainggolan for this difficult away game, but they will be without Cossu, Pinilla and Conti.  Pinilla, who scored both their goals against Inter last week. Very likely home win.
Siena   -   Chievo      2.22   -   3.87
They are hanging on, are they not, this Siena side. Strong enough or not, to survive, I would not know, but they have the fighting instincts to stay in  Serie A. Deducted six points they have been in trouble from day one this season, but they have demonstrated more than once, do not write off this Siena side. Typical Siena game at the weekend. 2-0 up away to Pescara they conceded two second half goals. Advantage Pescara at that stage, but it was Siena that scored the winning goal.
Chievo are not playing their best football at the moment. They are scraping for points, but they will most likely collect enough of points to remain this division.
I do not know why it has become like that, but Siena have not played as convincing in their home fixtures lately as they have done away from home. It is almost bizarre, saying that Siena are playing without confidence in Tuscany country. 1X game, but my choice has to be the home win.
Udinese    -   Lazio      2.44  -  3.29
Without Di Natale Udinese had no problems at all dealing with Parma last week (3-0 win). Quite impressive. Both Di Natale and Benatia will return for this game, but Muriel, who did a great job replacing Di Natale, will be suspended this weekend. G Silva will replace Pasquale in midfield.
Fortunately for Lazio both their defenders Radu and Biava will be back for this game sending the unlucky duo Cana and Stankevicius to the bench. Well, Cana is in fact suspended. Dias is close and he could also be back for this game. Lulic will not be fit to play and latest news tell us that both Radu and M Klose are injury doubts. It looks pretty bad for Klose.
The untested Lazio defence was all over the place in the first half against Juventus and Lazio almost immediately found themselves 0-2 down. In the second half Lazio played much better football, but they missed some great scoring chances. Kozak was back where he was before he started scoring for Lazio in Europe. I prefer the home win alternative.
Juventus  -   Milan     1.80  -  5.30
Happy to face a weakened Lazio defence earlier this week Juventus knew immediately how to take advantage of the Lazio short comings. Chiellini and Giovinco risk missing also this game. Peluso is favourite to replace Chiellini. Both Lichsteiner and Vidal will play.  Once again coach Conte may opt for the 3-5-1-1 formation with Marchisio backing up Vucinic upfront. No Balotelli or Flamini for Milan and Boateng is considered a major injury doubt.
Very likely home win.
Catania   -   Palermo     2.35  -  3.50
It looks like Catania will only miss Alvarez in their defence.  Almiron has recovered and he will probably send Biagianti to the bench. Has the Catania season already ended? They have drawn their last two games, both 0-0, and that is not what I expect from this side filled with South Americans. Nothing to play for? Why then, these 0-0 bore draws?
You just have to see it for yourself, or you will not believe it, the Sorrentino blunder last week leading to the Bologna equaliser against this desperate Palermo side. The  quite unbelievable mistake from the Palermo keeper may well  be the difference for Palermo, Serie A or Serie B, but it is not over yet.
Palermo hope that their all important  Ilicic will recover for this Sicilian derby game, but their captain and their talisman Miccoli will not make it. Hernandez, not 100% fit, could start instead of Miccoli. Palermo need Ilicic playing, it is simple as that.
More at stake for Palermo, but I find value on the home win, especially if Ilicic will not make it.
Inter   -   Parma      2.02   -   4.33
Guarin and A Pereira will be back from suspensions, but there is no hope for the injured duo Nagatomo and Gargano, joining half a dozen other injured Inter regulars. Cambiasso suffered an injury preparing for the midweek cup game against Roma and he will miss also this game. Inter took the lead against Roma, but they had no real chance in the second half losing the match 2-3. It was a much weakened Inter side, but that is all they have at the moment. It gets worse for Inter. Guarin will most likely miss this match.
Parma miss their suspended defender Paletta, Biabiany most likely, but Parolo will be back in their midfield. Highly questionable Parma form and their 2013 season has been disappointing.  Normally 2.02 would be a steal, but not at this very moment. I would definitely back a Parma side in form, but now I hesitate.
Roma   -   Pescara     1.20  -   19.00
Destro was back in the Roma starting line up in the cup against Inter. He made quite an impact scoring two of their goals. Florenzi, Balzaretti and Burdisso will not be involved in this match, but both Pjanic and Osvaldo could return.
Bjarnasson and Rizzo will be back for Pescara, Cosic, Modesto and Weiss as well, but they lose Sculli to a suspension. There is not much you can say about this Pescara side. They have  used numerous players this season, but to no avail at all. They keep trying though, I will give them that. Likely home win, but worthless odds of course.
Bologna   -   Sampdoria        2.21   -  4.26
Diamanti, the Bologna play maker, has recovered and he will line up for this game. He could not play last week at Palermo.  Kone  and D Perez will not make it. Motta will replace the suspended Garics in the home defence.
Krsticic is out for the season for Sampdoria. He has been one of their best players these last few weeks. No Eder either. Defender A Costa will sit out a suspension along with De Silvestri. Mustafi will cover for Costa in the Sampdoria defence and Berardi will replace De Silvestri. I prefer the home win alternative.
Fiorentina   -   Torino      1.50  -   8.00
Without quite a few of their leading players Fiorentina had no problems defeating Atalanta last week. Jovetic is still struggling, but Toni, Savic and Mati Fernandez have improved their chances in training this week. Pasqual will miss this game due to a suspension. Larrondo will probably replace Jovetic joined by Cuadrado and Ljajic upfront. Larrondo, who has scored a couple of sensational goals for Fiorentina lately.
Basha will be back in the Torino midfield and Birsa could also be back in contention. Likely home win, but worth noticing, Torino have picked up points in 70% of their away games this season.

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